2025
Week 11 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 21 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 27–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 69%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 9:34, 11 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:34NYJI.Davis right guard to NE 20 for 7 yards (H.Landry).17% → 28%
- 2Q1 8:20NYJJ.Fields pass short right to A.Mitchell to NE 6 for 10 yards (J.Hawkins).24% → 31%
- 3Q1 11:40NYJJ.Fields scrambles left end pushed ob at NE 32 for 14 yards (R.Spillane). NE-M.Williams was injured during the play.15% → 20%
- 4Q1 6:12NED.Maye pass short left to S.Diggs to NE 39 for 8 yards (J.Brownlee). PENALTY on NYJ-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 39.71% → 76%
- 5Q2 15:00NEB.Brown and K.T.Henderson right tackle to NYJ 7 for 3 yards (J.Brownlee).75% → 81%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.III led the Jets at +6.2 EPA (3 catches for 45). D.Maye led the Patriots at +11.6 EPA (25 of 34 for 281).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fields100% | 15/26 | 116 | 1 | 2 | -7.4 | |
| I.Williams74% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall72% | 14 | 50% | 58 | +0.3 | |
| J.Fields100% | 11 | 39% | 67 | 1 | +2.0 |
| I.Davis28% | 2 | 7% | 11 | +1.2 | |
| I.Williams74% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Mitchell49% | 6 | 23% | 1 | 10 | -2.4 | |
| J.Ruckert44% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 23 | -2.6 | |
| I.Williams74% | 4 | 15% | 1 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| M.Taylor75% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 30 | +0.5 | |
| J.III82% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 45 | 1 | +6.2 |
| B.Hall72% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 6 | -0.7 | |
| J.Fields100% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| I.Davis28% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense J.II 1 sack
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 25/34 | 281 | 1 | 1 | +12.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson88% | 19 | 70% | 62 | 2 | +0.5 |
| D.Maye100% | 4 | 15% | 2 | -0.6 | |
| D.Johnson12% | 3 | 11% | 6 | -1.2 | |
| D.Douglas28% | 1 | 4% | -5 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs69% | 11 | 33% | 9 | 105 | +5.3 | |
| H.Henry94% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 45 | +1.1 | |
| M.Hollins85% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 64 | +3.7 | |
| T.Henderson88% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 31 | 1 | +1.4 |
| D.Douglas28% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 36 | +5.5 | |
| K.Williams67% | 3 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
Defense C.Barmore 1 sack, E.Ponder 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 2/3 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Patriots give up 7.5 targets a game to tight ends (20th), against a league average of 7.3. Jets' tight ends produce 6.2 (20th).
Deep middle is open
Patriots are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.32 EPA per attempt. Jets send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Patriots give up 117 yards a game to wide receivers (4th), against a league average of 140. Jets' wide receivers produce 92 (31st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jets succeed on 40% of plays (29th) against a defense that allows 42% (11th).
The Patriots lead the series 43–14 since 1999. They have won the last 4. Oct 18, 2026, at Gillette Stadium: the Patriots won 26–19. Drake Maye started at quarterback for the Patriots and Geno Smith for the Jets; Mike Vrabel and Aaron Glenn coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | NYJ 19 at NE 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | NE 42 at NYJ 10 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | NYJ 14 at NE 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | NYJ 22 at NE 25 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | NE 3 at NYJ 24 |
2025 records
| Jets | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 14–3 |
| Division | 0–6 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 5–0 |
| Home | 2–7 | 6–3 |
| Away | 1–7 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 17.6 – 29.6 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | -0.09#5 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 4.9#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 8%#6 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | -0.12#6 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | -0.09#12 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 3.9#8 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 36%#7 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 55%#8 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 117#4 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 55#20 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 7.5#20 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 29#11 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.