2025
Week 17 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
Bears offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 42–38; their low point was 30% at Q4 6:15. The game turned for good at Q4 2:23: B.Purdy pass deep middle to J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN (48% → 77%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:04, 46 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:04SFC.Williams pass incomplete short left to J.Walker [Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-L.Burden was injured during the play.54% → 100%
- 2Q4 2:23SFB.Purdy pass deep middle to J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point48% → 77%
- 3Q1 14:54CHIB.Purdy pass short right intended for J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by T.Edwards (J.Johnson) at SF 34. T.Edwards for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.38% → 57%
- 4Q4 0:33CHIC.Williams pass short right to C.Loveland to SF 13 for 13 yards (D.Winters).31% → 45%
- 5Q4 1:09CHIC.Williams pass short right to L.Burden to SF 31 for 14 yards (D.Lenoir).28% → 41%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Williams led the Bears at +18.0 EPA (25 of 42 for 330). B.Purdy led the 49ers at +16.1 EPA (24 of 33 for 303).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 25/42 | 330 | 2 | +17.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift59% | 9 | 41% | 54 | 2 | +4.5 |
| K.Monangai41% | 8 | 36% | 38 | +0.0 | |
| C.Williams100% | 5 | 23% | 18 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Loveland82% | 10 | 26% | 6 | 94 | 1 | +8.6 |
| L.III58% | 9 | 23% | 8 | 138 | 1 | +11.1 |
| D.Moore92% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 7 | -2.8 | |
| K.Monangai41% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 9 | +0.3 | |
| J.Walker62% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 30 | -0.7 | |
| D.Swift59% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 25 | +0.3 | |
| C.Kmet61% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 16 | +1.6 | |
| D.Smythe21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +1.0 | |
| D.Duvernay17% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Defense T.Edwards 1 INT, A.Booker 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/1 FG (long 29)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 24/33 | 303 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +12.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey85% | 23 | 68% | 140 | 1 | +2.5 |
| B.Purdy100% | 6 | 18% | 28 | 2 | +3.4 |
| B.Robinson15% | 4 | 12% | 22 | -0.3 | |
| S.Moore6% | 1 | 3% | 10 | +1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Tonges69% | 9 | 27% | 7 | 60 | 1 | +3.5 |
| R.Pearsall81% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 85 | +9.2 | |
| C.McCaffrey85% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 41 | +0.3 | |
| J.Jennings90% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 42 | 1 | -5.7 |
| K.Juszczyk54% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 14 | 1 | +1.9 |
| D.Robinson35% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 30 | +2.5 | |
| K.Bourne26% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 25 | +1.6 | |
| B.Robinson15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.7 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Bears take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (2nd). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
49ers give up 144 yards a game to wide receivers (19th), against a league average of 140. Bears' wide receivers produce 143 (16th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Bears create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (5th). 49ers give them up at 8% (4th).
The 49ers lead the series 9–8 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | CHI 38 at SF 42 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | CHI 13 at SF 38 |
| 2022 · Wk 1 | SF 10 at CHI 19 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | SF 33 at CHI 22 |
| 2018 · Wk 16 | CHI 14 at SF 9 |
2025 records
| Bears | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 12–5 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 7–2 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 25.7 – 21.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.