2025
Week 17 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
49ers offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for 49ers, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 42–38; their low point was 30% at Q4 6:15. The game turned for good at Q4 2:23: B.Purdy pass deep middle to J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN (48% → 77%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:04, 46 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:04SFC.Williams pass incomplete short left to J.Walker [Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-L.Burden was injured during the play.54% → 100%
- 2Q4 2:23SFB.Purdy pass deep middle to J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point48% → 77%
- 3Q1 14:54CHIB.Purdy pass short right intended for J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by T.Edwards (J.Johnson) at SF 34. T.Edwards for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.38% → 57%
- 4Q4 0:33CHIC.Williams pass short right to C.Loveland to SF 13 for 13 yards (D.Winters).31% → 45%
- 5Q4 1:09CHIC.Williams pass short right to L.Burden to SF 31 for 14 yards (D.Lenoir).28% → 41%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Williams led the Bears at +18.0 EPA (25 of 42 for 330). B.Purdy led the 49ers at +16.1 EPA (24 of 33 for 303).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 25/42 | 330 | 2 | +17.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift59% | 9 | 41% | 54 | 2 | +4.5 |
| K.Monangai41% | 8 | 36% | 38 | +0.0 | |
| C.Williams100% | 5 | 23% | 18 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Loveland82% | 10 | 26% | 6 | 94 | 1 | +8.6 |
| L.III58% | 9 | 23% | 8 | 138 | 1 | +11.1 |
| D.Moore92% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 7 | -2.8 | |
| K.Monangai41% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 9 | +0.3 | |
| J.Walker62% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 30 | -0.7 | |
| D.Swift59% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 25 | +0.3 | |
| C.Kmet61% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 16 | +1.6 | |
| D.Smythe21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +1.0 | |
| D.Duvernay17% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Defense T.Edwards 1 INT, A.Booker 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/1 FG (long 29)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 24/33 | 303 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +12.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey85% | 23 | 68% | 140 | 1 | +2.5 |
| B.Purdy100% | 6 | 18% | 28 | 2 | +3.4 |
| B.Robinson15% | 4 | 12% | 22 | -0.3 | |
| S.Moore6% | 1 | 3% | 10 | +1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Tonges69% | 9 | 27% | 7 | 60 | 1 | +3.5 |
| R.Pearsall81% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 85 | +9.2 | |
| C.McCaffrey85% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 41 | +0.3 | |
| J.Jennings90% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 42 | 1 | -5.7 |
| K.Juszczyk54% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 14 | 1 | +1.9 |
| D.Robinson35% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 30 | +2.5 | |
| K.Bourne26% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 25 | +1.6 | |
| B.Robinson15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.7 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
49ers take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (4th). Bears get home on 6% (23rd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. 49ers send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
49ers average 3.7 yards per carry (29th). Bears allow 4.7 (29th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. 49ers create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (22nd). Bears give them up at 12% (29th).
The 49ers lead the series 9–8 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | CHI 38 at SF 42 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | CHI 13 at SF 38 |
| 2022 · Wk 1 | SF 10 at CHI 19 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | SF 33 at CHI 22 |
| 2018 · Wk 16 | CHI 14 at SF 9 |
2025 records
| Bears | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 12–5 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 7–2 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 25.7 – 21.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SF off | Favors SF · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#9 | +0.03#21 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 48%#3 | 46%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 12%#29 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#8 | +0.05#19 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#4 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#13 | -0.03#19 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#29 | 4.7#29 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 51%#1 | 41%#15 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#2 | 59%#17 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 124#24 | 163#26 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#12 | 52#14 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#13 | 7.4#18 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 69#1 | 27#6 | 32 | |
49ers: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.