2025
Week 17 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Seahawks offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 27–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 64%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 12:06, 13 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 12:06SEAJ.C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (D.Lawrence; E.Jones). FUMBLES (D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. D.Lawrence for…64% → 77%
- 2Q3 12:12CARS.Darnold pass deep left intended for J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by M.Jackson at CAR -8. Touchback.24% → 36%
- 3Q2 5:33CARS.Darnold to SEA 40 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 39. S.Darnold sacked at SEA 39 for -7 yards (N.Scourton). FUMBLES (N.Scourton),…17% → 27%
- 4Q1 11:41CARS.Darnold pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on SEA-S.Darnold, Intentional Grounding, 21 yards, enforced at SEA 32.23% → 32%
- 5Q2 0:26CARS.Darnold up the middle to CAR 39 for no gain (A.Robinson; C.Rozeboom). (Virtual measurement).26% → 34%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Z.Charbonnet led the Seahawks at +10.9 EPA (18 carries for 110). J.Coker led the Panthers at +1.6 EPA (2 catches for 16).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 18/27 | 147 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Charbonnet53% | 18 | 50% | 110 | 2 | +10.7 |
| K.III47% | 15 | 42% | 51 | -4.4 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 3 | 8% | 2 | -5.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba89% | 12 | 46% | 9 | 72 | +1.6 | |
| C.Kupp88% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 6 | -0.1 | |
| A.Barner79% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 43 | 1 | +6.0 |
| E.Saubert52% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| K.III47% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 6 | -1.3 | |
| Z.Charbonnet53% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 12 | +0.2 | |
| D.Young17% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| R.Shaheed18% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 |
Defense J.Love 1 INT, D.Lawrence 1 sack, B.Mafe 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/2 FG (long 48)
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 14/24 | 54 | 1 | 2 | -21.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle64% | 12 | 46% | 59 | -0.3 | |
| B.Young100% | 9 | 35% | 27 | 1 | -2.0 |
| C.Hubbard38% | 4 | 15% | 12 | -7.1 | |
| M.Evans57% | 1 | 4% | 1 | +1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle64% | 5 | 24% | 3 | 4 | -2.8 | |
| T.McMillan83% | 4 | 19% | 1 | 5 | -11.4 | |
| C.Hubbard38% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 6 | -2.0 | |
| J.Coker72% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 16 | +1.6 | |
| M.Evans57% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 5 | -1.3 | |
| J.Jr.26% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 9 | -0.2 | |
| T.Tremble77% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 | |
| B.Tremayne15% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| X.Legette55% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 3 | +0.2 |
Defense M.Jackson 1 INT, D.Wonnum 1 sack, T.Moehrig 1 sack, N.Scourton 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/1 FG (long 35)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Seahawks
Seahawks convert 43% of third downs (10th). Panthers allow 47% (30th).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Panthers give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (11th), against a league average of 7.3. Seahawks' tight ends produce 5.5 (30th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Seahawks create explosive plays on 11% of snaps (7th). Panthers give them up at 9% (10th).
The Seahawks lead the series 12–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | SEA 27 at CAR 10 |
| 2023 · Wk 3 | CAR 27 at SEA 37 |
| 2022 · Wk 14 | CAR 30 at SEA 24 |
| 2019 · Wk 15 | SEA 30 at CAR 24 |
| 2018 · Wk 12 | SEA 30 at CAR 27 |
2025 records
| Seahawks | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Away | 8–1 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WLWLL |
| Streak | Won 7 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 28.4 – 17.2 | 18.3 – 22.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.