2025
Week 17 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Eagles offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Eagles, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 13–12; their low point was 27% at Q1 4:13. The Bills had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 3:28: J.Hurts pass deep left to A.Brown to BUF 14 for 27 yards (C.Benford) (48% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:05, 30 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:05PHITWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.60% → 89%
- 2Q4 0:08BUFA.J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.12% → 40%
- 3Q1 4:13PHIJ.Allen sacked at PHI 29 for -6 yards (J.Phillips). FUMBLES (J.Phillips), touched at PHI 28, RECOVERED by PHI-J.Campbell at BUF 45.27% → 49%
- 4Q4 1:40BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to B.Cooks to PHI 10 for 36 yards (M.Epps).17% → 31%
- 5Q1 5:14BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to B.Cooks to PHI 30 for 50 yards (C.DeJean) [J.Hunt].59% → 71%
- ★Q1 3:28PHIJ.Hurts pass deep left to A.Brown to BUF 14 for 27 yards (C.Benford).turning point48% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Brown led the Eagles at +4.5 EPA (5 catches for 68). B.Cooks led the Bills at +6.3 EPA (4 catches for 101).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 13/27 | 110 | 1 | 1 | -5.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley80% | 19 | 73% | 68 | -1.3 | |
| J.Hurts100% | 3 | 12% | 5 | +1.6 | |
| T.Bigsby9% | 2 | 8% | 7 | -0.2 | |
| W.Shipley9% | 2 | 8% | 2 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown89% | 7 | 32% | 5 | 68 | +4.5 | |
| D.Goedert80% | 6 | 27% | 3 | 8 | 1 | -2.3 |
| D.Smith85% | 5 | 23% | 2 | 25 | +0.0 | |
| G.Calcaterra35% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | |
| J.Dotson48% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| T.Bigsby9% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.2 | |
| D.Cooper31% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 |
Defense J.Hunt 2 sacks, J.Phillips 1 sack, J.Carter 1 sack, M.Ojomo 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 2/2 FG (long 47)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 23/35 | 262 | 5 | -9.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook51% | 20 | 61% | 74 | -3.1 | |
| J.Allen100% | 7 | 21% | 27 | 2 | +4.0 |
| T.Johnson38% | 5 | 15% | 15 | -0.2 | |
| R.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 4 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir78% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 35 | -1.8 | |
| B.Cooks51% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 101 | +6.3 | |
| D.Knox63% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 30 | +1.2 | |
| T.Johnson38% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 33 | -1.1 | |
| J.Cook51% | 4 | 12% | 1 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| T.Shavers57% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 36 | +5.1 | |
| J.Palmer50% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 12 | -0.3 | |
| G.Davis38% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| R.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | +0.7 |
Defense M.Milano 0.5 sacks, G.Rousseau 0.5 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Eagles' run game is 12th in EPA per carry (-0.04). Bills allow +0.04 (29th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Eagles send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bills give up 27 yards a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 53. Eagles' tight ends produce 41 (25th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Eagles average +0.02 EPA per play (15th). Bills allow -0.01 (13th). League average is +0.01.
The Eagles lead the series 6–2 since 1999. They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | PHI 13 at BUF 12 |
| 2023 · Wk 12 · OT | BUF 34 at PHI 37 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | PHI 31 at BUF 13 |
| 2015 · Wk 14 | BUF 20 at PHI 23 |
| 2011 · Wk 5 | PHI 24 at BUF 31 |
2025 records
| Eagles | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 7–2 |
| Away | 6–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LWWWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 19.1 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PHI off | Favors PHI · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#15 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#20 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#19 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#16 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#13 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#15 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#12 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#20 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#24 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#5 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 140#17 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 41#25 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#21 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#26 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Eagles: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.