2025
Week 17 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Bills offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bills, 18 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 13–12; their low point was 27% at Q1 4:13. The Bills had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 3:28: J.Hurts pass deep left to A.Brown to BUF 14 for 27 yards (C.Benford) (48% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:05, 30 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:05BUFTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.60% → 89%
- 2Q4 0:08BUFA.J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.12% → 40%
- 3Q1 4:13BUFJ.Allen sacked at PHI 29 for -6 yards (J.Phillips). FUMBLES (J.Phillips), touched at PHI 28, RECOVERED by PHI-J.Campbell at BUF 45.27% → 49%
- 4Q4 1:40BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to B.Cooks to PHI 10 for 36 yards (M.Epps).17% → 31%
- 5Q1 5:14BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to B.Cooks to PHI 30 for 50 yards (C.DeJean) [J.Hunt].59% → 71%
- ★Q1 3:28PHIJ.Hurts pass deep left to A.Brown to BUF 14 for 27 yards (C.Benford).turning point48% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Brown led the Eagles at +4.5 EPA (5 catches for 68). B.Cooks led the Bills at +6.3 EPA (4 catches for 101).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 13/27 | 110 | 1 | 1 | -5.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley80% | 19 | 73% | 68 | -1.3 | |
| J.Hurts100% | 3 | 12% | 5 | +1.6 | |
| T.Bigsby9% | 2 | 8% | 7 | -0.2 | |
| W.Shipley9% | 2 | 8% | 2 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown89% | 7 | 32% | 5 | 68 | +4.5 | |
| D.Goedert80% | 6 | 27% | 3 | 8 | 1 | -2.3 |
| D.Smith85% | 5 | 23% | 2 | 25 | +0.0 | |
| G.Calcaterra35% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | |
| J.Dotson48% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| T.Bigsby9% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.2 | |
| D.Cooper31% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 |
Defense J.Hunt 2 sacks, J.Phillips 1 sack, J.Carter 1 sack, M.Ojomo 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 2/2 FG (long 47)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 23/35 | 262 | 5 | -9.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook51% | 20 | 61% | 74 | -3.1 | |
| J.Allen100% | 7 | 21% | 27 | 2 | +4.0 |
| T.Johnson38% | 5 | 15% | 15 | -0.2 | |
| R.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 4 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir78% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 35 | -1.8 | |
| B.Cooks51% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 101 | +6.3 | |
| D.Knox63% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 30 | +1.2 | |
| T.Johnson38% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 33 | -1.1 | |
| J.Cook51% | 4 | 12% | 1 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| T.Shavers57% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 36 | +5.1 | |
| J.Palmer50% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 12 | -0.3 | |
| G.Davis38% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| R.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | +0.7 |
Defense M.Milano 0.5 sacks, G.Rousseau 0.5 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Bills
Bills convert 48% of third downs (3rd). Eagles allow 43% (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Eagles are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Bills send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Eagles give up 6.2 targets a game to tight ends (6th), against a league average of 7.3. Bills' tight ends produce 7.4 (16th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.0 yards per play (5th). Eagles give up 5.1 (10th), with the league at 5.4.
The Eagles lead the series 6–2 since 1999. They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | PHI 13 at BUF 12 |
| 2023 · Wk 12 · OT | BUF 34 at PHI 37 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | PHI 31 at BUF 13 |
| 2015 · Wk 14 | BUF 20 at PHI 23 |
| 2011 · Wk 5 | PHI 24 at BUF 31 |
2025 records
| Eagles | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 7–2 |
| Away | 6–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LWWWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 19.1 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#2 | -0.07#9 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 49%#2 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 5.1#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#1 | 9%#18 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#3 | -0.11#8 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.07#1 | -0.10#6 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#4 | 4.1#12 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#3 | 43%#23 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#4 | 55%#9 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#20 | 138#17 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 73#2 | 29#2 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#16 | 6.2#6 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 41#28 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.