2025
Week 17 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Dolphins won 20–17 from as low as 14% (Q1 4:37, down 7–0). The Buccaneers had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:07: J.Wright right tackle to TB 37 for 7 yards (G.Gaines) (50% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 7:05, 13 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 7:05TBB.Mayfield pass deep left intended for E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by A.Davis at MIA 5. A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (C.Otton).79% → 93%
- 2Q2 1:46MIAQ.Ewers pass short middle to G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 66%
- 3Q4 4:04TBB.Mayfield sacked at MIA 40 for -9 yards (B.Chubb). FUMBLES (B.Chubb) [B.Chubb], touched at MIA 40, RECOVERED by MIA-Q.Bell at MIA 41.84% → 96%
- 4Q1 4:37MIAQ.Ewers pass deep left to T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14% → 26%
- 5Q2 1:24TBB.Mayfield pass deep left to J.McMillan to MIA 41 for 33 yards (J.Jones).32% → 41%
- ★Q2 4:07MIAJ.Wright right tackle to TB 37 for 7 yards (G.Gaines).turning point50% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Jr. led the Buccaneers at +8.5 EPA (7 catches for 108). T.Jr. led the Dolphins at +6.2 EPA (1 catches for 63).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 33/44 | 346 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving54% | 9 | 56% | 19 | -4.7 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 3 | 19% | 16 | +2.4 | |
| R.White48% | 2 | 13% | 10 | +0.2 | |
| S.Tucker6% | 2 | 13% | 8 | +2.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McMillan52% | 9 | 20% | 7 | 114 | +6.9 | |
| C.Jr.79% | 8 | 18% | 7 | 108 | 1 | +8.5 |
| M.Evans75% | 7 | 16% | 3 | 31 | 1 | +1.9 |
| B.Irving54% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 14 | -4.5 | |
| E.Egbuka58% | 5 | 11% | 3 | 20 | -4.7 | |
| C.Otton97% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 33 | +1.5 | |
| R.White48% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 7 | -0.3 | |
| T.Johnson16% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 19 | +1.0 | |
| S.Tucker6% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense L.Hall 1 sack, Y.Diaby 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 1/2 FG (long 33)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Ewers100% | 14/22 | 172 | 2 | 2 | +4.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane75% | 18 | 60% | 83 | -1.0 | |
| J.Wright15% | 5 | 17% | 56 | +3.4 | |
| Q.Ewers100% | 4 | 13% | 5 | -1.0 | |
| J.Waddle25% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.4 | |
| G.Dulcich36% | 1 | 3% | -7 | -1.6 | |
| M.Washington64% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Dulcich36% | 6 | 27% | 5 | 58 | 1 | +5.3 |
| D.Waller38% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| D.Achane75% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 29 | +0.8 | |
| M.Washington64% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 4 | -3.0 | |
| C.Jr.69% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 8 | -0.5 | |
| J.Hill60% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 16 | +2.2 | |
| J.Waddle25% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| Q.Ewers100% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -6 | -1.5 | |
| T.Jr.27% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 63 | 1 | +6.2 |
Defense B.Chubb 2 sacks, A.Davis 1 INT, J.Jr. 1 INT, T.Dodson 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/2 FG (long 31)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Dolphins give up 37 yards a game to running backs (25th), against a league average of 32. Buccaneers' running backs produce 31 (13th).
Deep middle is open
Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Dolphins give up 8.2 targets a game to tight ends (25th), against a league average of 7.3. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 5.1 (32nd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Buccaneers gain 5.2 yards per play (24th). Dolphins give up 5.9 (26th), with the league at 5.4.
The Buccaneers lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | TB 17 at MIA 20 |
| 2021 · Wk 5 | MIA 17 at TB 45 |
| 2017 · Wk 11 | TB 30 at MIA 20 |
| 2013 · Wk 10 | MIA 19 at TB 22 |
| 2009 · Wk 10 | TB 23 at MIA 25 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Away | 4–5 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | +0.09#26 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 48%#29 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 5.9#26 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 11%#25 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | +0.13#26 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | -0.03#20 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 4.6#25 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 41%#17 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 65%#26 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 127#9 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 66#29 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 8.2#25 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 37#25 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.