2025
Week 17 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Dolphins won 20–17 from as low as 14% (Q1 4:37, down 7–0). The Buccaneers had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:07: J.Wright right tackle to TB 37 for 7 yards (G.Gaines) (50% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 7:05, 13 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 7:05MIAB.Mayfield pass deep left intended for E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by A.Davis at MIA 5. A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (C.Otton).79% → 93%
- 2Q2 1:46MIAQ.Ewers pass short middle to G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 66%
- 3Q4 4:04MIAB.Mayfield sacked at MIA 40 for -9 yards (B.Chubb). FUMBLES (B.Chubb) [B.Chubb], touched at MIA 40, RECOVERED by MIA-Q.Bell at MIA 41.84% → 96%
- 4Q1 4:37MIAQ.Ewers pass deep left to T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14% → 26%
- 5Q2 1:24TBB.Mayfield pass deep left to J.McMillan to MIA 41 for 33 yards (J.Jones).32% → 41%
- ★Q2 4:07MIAJ.Wright right tackle to TB 37 for 7 yards (G.Gaines).turning point50% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Jr. led the Buccaneers at +8.5 EPA (7 catches for 108). T.Jr. led the Dolphins at +6.2 EPA (1 catches for 63).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 33/44 | 346 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving54% | 9 | 56% | 19 | -4.7 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 3 | 19% | 16 | +2.4 | |
| R.White48% | 2 | 13% | 10 | +0.2 | |
| S.Tucker6% | 2 | 13% | 8 | +2.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McMillan52% | 9 | 20% | 7 | 114 | +6.9 | |
| C.Jr.79% | 8 | 18% | 7 | 108 | 1 | +8.5 |
| M.Evans75% | 7 | 16% | 3 | 31 | 1 | +1.9 |
| B.Irving54% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 14 | -4.5 | |
| E.Egbuka58% | 5 | 11% | 3 | 20 | -4.7 | |
| C.Otton97% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 33 | +1.5 | |
| R.White48% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 7 | -0.3 | |
| T.Johnson16% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 19 | +1.0 | |
| S.Tucker6% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense L.Hall 1 sack, Y.Diaby 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 1/2 FG (long 33)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Ewers100% | 14/22 | 172 | 2 | 2 | +4.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane75% | 18 | 60% | 83 | -1.0 | |
| J.Wright15% | 5 | 17% | 56 | +3.4 | |
| Q.Ewers100% | 4 | 13% | 5 | -1.0 | |
| J.Waddle25% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.4 | |
| G.Dulcich36% | 1 | 3% | -7 | -1.6 | |
| M.Washington64% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Dulcich36% | 6 | 27% | 5 | 58 | 1 | +5.3 |
| D.Waller38% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| D.Achane75% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 29 | +0.8 | |
| M.Washington64% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 4 | -3.0 | |
| C.Jr.69% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 8 | -0.5 | |
| J.Hill60% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 16 | +2.2 | |
| J.Waddle25% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| Q.Ewers100% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -6 | -1.5 | |
| T.Jr.27% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 63 | 1 | +6.2 |
Defense B.Chubb 2 sacks, A.Davis 1 INT, J.Jr. 1 INT, T.Dodson 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/2 FG (long 31)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Buccaneers give up 51 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. Dolphins' running backs produce 36 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Buccaneers
Dolphins convert 35% of third downs (26th). Buccaneers allow 40% (13th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Dolphins average -0.02 EPA per play (21st). Buccaneers allow +0.02 (17th). League average is +0.01.
The Buccaneers lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | TB 17 at MIA 20 |
| 2021 · Wk 5 | MIA 17 at TB 45 |
| 2017 · Wk 11 | TB 30 at MIA 20 |
| 2013 · Wk 10 | MIA 19 at TB 22 |
| 2009 · Wk 10 | TB 23 at MIA 25 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Away | 4–5 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#21 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#26 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#18 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#9 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#3 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#26 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#23 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 110#26 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 50#19 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#25 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#9 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.