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2025 season · Jan 17 to Jan 18 · 4 games · byes: ARI, ATL, BAL, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, IND, JAX, KC, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, PIT, TB, TEN, WAS

Divisional in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

4 of 4 final
The short version
  • Best offenseThe Seahawks: +0.21 EPA a play against the 49ers, +0.18 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Seahawks held the 49ers to −0.46 EPA a play, −0.35 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerKenneth Walker III (SEA RB): +11.4 EPA, 19 car, 116 yds, 3 TD · 3-29 rec.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Divisional
Games final4 of 4
Overtime0
Comebacks0
Upsets0
Points0
Biggest swing–
BUFBills30DENBroncos33
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build
SF49ers6SEASeahawks41
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build
HOUTexans16NEPatriots28
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build
LARams20CHIBears17
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. No final games with win probability yet.
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1DENBroncos · Q2 0:29 · vs BUF · Lil'Jordan HumphreyB.Nix pass deep left to L.Humphrey for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [G.Rousseau].+5.1EPA
  2. 2CHIBears · Q4 0:27 · vs LA · Cole KmetC.Williams pass short left to C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.Verse].+4.4EPA
  3. 3NEPatriots · Q1 9:41 · vs HOU · DeMario DouglasD.Maye pass short middle to D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA
  4. 4HOUTexans · Q1 8:47 · vs NE · Dalton SchultzC.Stroud pass short left to D.Schultz pushed ob at NE 27 for 42 yards.+4.2EPA
  5. 5CHIBears · Q2 15:00 · vs LA · DJ MooreC.Williams pass short middle to D.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.0EPA
  6. 6NEPatriots · Q4 13:05 · vs HOU · Kayshon BoutteD.Maye pass deep right to K.Boutte for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling,…+3.8EPA
  7. 7BUFBills · Q4 14:57 · vs DEN · Khalil ShakirJ.Allen pass short middle to K.Shakir to DEN 16 for 46 yards.+3.6EPA
  8. 8DENBroncos · Q4 1:01 · vs BUF · Marvin Mims Jr.B.Nix pass deep left to M.Mims for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-M.Mims was injured during the play.+3.4EPA
  9. 9BUFBills · Q4 13:29 · vs DEN · Dalton KincaidJ.Allen pass short left to D.Kincaid for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+3.4EPA
  10. 10SEASeahawks · Q4 12:47 · vs SF · Kenneth Walker IIIK.Walker right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2.9EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1SEASeahawksvs SF · W 41–6+0.21+0.18 vs usual
2BUFBillsat DEN · L 30–33+0.08−0.06 vs usual
3LARamsat CHI · W 20–17+0.04−0.11 vs usual
4DENBroncosvs BUF · W 33–30+0.03+0.00 vs usual
5CHIBearsvs LA · L 17–20−0.04−0.12 vs usual
6NEPatriotsvs HOU · W 28–16−0.28−0.39 vs usual
7HOUTexansat NE · L 16–28−0.41−0.40 vs usual
8SF49ersat SEA · L 6–41−0.46−0.55 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs DEN · 25/39, 283 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT · 12-66 rush+11.1
  2. 218Caleb WilliamsCHI vs LA · 23/42, 257 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT · 5-40 rush+7.9
  3. 314Sam DarnoldSEA vs SF · 12/17, 124 yds, 1 TD+5.3
  4. 410Bo NixDEN vs BUF · 26/46, 279 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 12-29 rush+3.1
  5. 59Matthew StaffordLA vs CHI · 20/42, 258 yds+1.5
  6. 610Mac JonesSF vs SEA · 2/4, 4 yds−1.3
  7. 713Brock PurdySF vs SEA · 15/27, 140 yds, 1 INT · 5-37 rush−10.9
  8. 810Drake MayeNE vs HOU · 16/27, 179 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 4-10 rush−12.5
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 19Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs SF · 19 car, 116 yds, 3 TD · 3-29 rec+11.4
  2. 223Kyren WilliamsLA vs CHI · 21 car, 87 yds, 2 TD · 4-30 rec+4.7
  3. 321Nick ChubbHOU vs NE · 4 car, 14 yds+1.7
  4. 422Ray DavisBUF vs DEN · 0 car, 0 yds · 2-9 rec+1.3
  5. 526Zach CharbonnetSEA vs SF · 5 car, 20 yds0.0
  6. 629Jordan JamesSF vs SEA · 6 car, 28 yds · 1-7 rec−0.1
  7. 712RJ HarveyDEN vs BUF · 6 car, 20 yds · 5-46 rec−0.2
  8. 840Robbie OuztsSEA vs SF · 0 car, 0 yds−0.3
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 19Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs SF · RB32.5*
  2. 217Josh AllenBUF vs DEN · QB25.9*
  3. 310Bo NixDEN vs BUF · QB24.1*
  4. 423Kyren WilliamsLA vs CHI · RB23.7*
  5. 510Drake MayeNE vs HOU · QB18.2*
  6. 618Caleb WilliamsCHI vs LA · QB16.3*
  7. 719Marvin Mims Jr.DEN vs BUF · WR15.3*
  8. 886Dalton KincaidBUF vs DEN · TE14.3*
  9. 94James CookBUF vs DEN · RB14.1*
  10. 109Kayshon BoutteNE vs HOU · WR13.5*
  11. 112DJ MooreCHI vs LA · WR12.0*
  12. 129Matthew StaffordLA vs CHI · QB10.2*
  13. 138Stefon DiggsNE vs HOU · WR10.0*
  14. 143DeMario DouglasNE vs HOU · WR9.6*
  15. 1517Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN vs BUF · WR9.3*
  16. 1685Cole KmetCHI vs LA · TE9.1*
  1. 19Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs SF · RB34.0*
  2. 217Josh AllenBUF vs DEN · QB25.9*
  3. 323Kyren WilliamsLA vs CHI · RB25.7*
  4. 410Bo NixDEN vs BUF · QB24.1*
  5. 519Marvin Mims Jr.DEN vs BUF · WR19.3*
  6. 610Drake MayeNE vs HOU · QB18.2*
  7. 786Dalton KincaidBUF vs DEN · TE17.3*
  8. 818Caleb WilliamsCHI vs LA · QB16.3*
  9. 94James CookBUF vs DEN · RB15.1*
  10. 109Kayshon BoutteNE vs HOU · WR15.0*
  11. 112DJ MooreCHI vs LA · WR14.5*
  12. 128Stefon DiggsNE vs HOU · WR12.0*
  13. 1310Khalil ShakirBUF vs DEN · WR11.0*
  14. 143DeMario DouglasNE vs HOU · WR10.6*
  15. 1585Cole KmetCHI vs LA · TE10.6*
  16. 1617Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN vs BUF · WR10.3*
  1. 19Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs SF · RB35.5*
  2. 223Kyren WilliamsLA vs CHI · RB27.7*
  3. 317Josh AllenBUF vs DEN · QB25.9*
  4. 410Bo NixDEN vs BUF · QB24.1*
  5. 519Marvin Mims Jr.DEN vs BUF · WR23.3*
  6. 686Dalton KincaidBUF vs DEN · TE20.3*
  7. 710Drake MayeNE vs HOU · QB18.2*
  8. 82DJ MooreCHI vs LA · WR17.0*
  9. 99Kayshon BoutteNE vs HOU · WR16.5*
  10. 1018Caleb WilliamsCHI vs LA · QB16.3*
  11. 114James CookBUF vs DEN · RB16.1*
  12. 1210Khalil ShakirBUF vs DEN · WR14.5*
  13. 138Stefon DiggsNE vs HOU · WR14.0*
  14. 1423Christian McCaffreySF vs SEA · RB12.4*
  15. 1538Rhamondre StevensonNE vs HOU · RB12.1*
  16. 1685Cole KmetCHI vs LA · TE12.1*
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 119Marvin Mims Jr.DEN vs BUF · 8/8, 93 yds, 1 TD+8.2
  2. 29Kayshon BoutteNE vs HOU · 3/5, 75 yds, 1 TD+6.2
  3. 310Cooper KuppSEA vs SF · 5/5, 60 yds+5.7
  4. 410Khalil ShakirBUF vs DEN · 7/9, 75 yds+4.6
  5. 53DeMario DouglasNE vs HOU · 2/2, 36 yds, 1 TD+4.4
  6. 688Jordan WhittingtonLA vs CHI · 2/2, 35 yds+3.1
  7. 78Stefon DiggsNE vs HOU · 4/6, 40 yds, 1 TD+2.5
  8. 817Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN vs BUF · 2/5, 33 yds, 1 TD+2.2
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 186Dalton KincaidBUF vs DEN · 6/6, 83 yds, 1 TD+9.1
  2. 286Dalton SchultzHOU vs NE · 2/2, 47 yds+4.8
  3. 385Cole KmetCHI vs LA · 3/3, 31 yds, 1 TD+4.5
  4. 484Colby ParkinsonLA vs CHI · 3/7, 56 yds+1.6
  5. 588Dawson KnoxBUF vs DEN · 3/5, 32 yds+1.1
  6. 688Jake TongesSF vs SEA · 5/6, 59 yds+1.1
  7. 789Tyler HigbeeLA vs CHI · 1/2, 27 yds+1.1
  8. 881Durham SmytheCHI vs LA · 1/1, 5 yds+0.2

Lines for 4 games are counted from the play-by-play because nflverse's weekly stats for them haven't posted yet. Their fantasy points (marked *) leave out fumbles and two-point tries until the stats arrive, usually by the next morning.

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 20 · against his own season0 played

Week 20: 0 players took a snap; no snap share moved past the floor.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

Nobody moved far on this board.

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

Nobody moved far on this board.

EPAthe week against his per-game average

Nobody moved far on this board.

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.