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2025 season · Dec 4 to Dec 8 · 14 games · byes: CAR, NE, NYG, SF

Week 14 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

14 of 14 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Saints beat the Buccaneers 24–20 as a 23% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Bills were down to 14% against the Bengals and won 39–34.
  • WildestSaints at Buccaneers: the lead changed hands 4 times; the Saints won 24–20, and the biggest swing was 16 points at Q4 8:34.
  • Best offenseThe Rams: +0.44 EPA a play against the Cardinals, +0.31 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Dolphins held the Jets to −0.45 EPA a play, −0.57 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerJosh Allen (BUF QB): +21.7 EPA, 22/28, 251 yds, 3 TD · 9-78 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 14
Games final14 of 14
Overtime1
Comebacks5
Upsets7
Points699
Biggest swing56 pts
DALCowboys30DETLions44
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q4 9:59
Led all the way
SEASeahawks37ATLFalcons9
Biggest swing 16 pts · Q3 15:00
Led all the way
PITSteelers27BALRavens22
Biggest swing 26 pts · Q4 3:36
Upset · 30% at kickoffComeback from 24%
CINBengals34BUFBills39
Biggest swing 56 pts · Q4 5:35
Comeback from 14%
TENTitans31CLEBrowns29
Biggest swing 21 pts · Q2 2:58
Upset · 32% at kickoffComeback from 21%
INDColts19JAXJaguars36
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q1 13:04
Upset · 42% at kickoff
WASCommanders0MINVikings31
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q1 2:46
Upset · 46% at kickoff
MIADolphins34NYJJets10
Biggest swing 9 pts · Q1 13:42
Led all the way
NOSaints24TBBuccaneers20
Biggest swing 16 pts · Q4 8:34
Upset · 23% at kickoffComeback from 14%
DENBroncos24LVRaiders17
Biggest swing 9 pts · Q1 0:05
Led all the way
LARams45ARICardinals17
Biggest swing 7 pts · Q1 14:17
Led all the way
CHIBears21GBPackers28
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q4 0:27
Led all the way
HOUTexans20KCChiefs10
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q4 10:22
Upset · 35% at kickoff
PHIEagles19LACChargers22
Biggest swing 25 pts · Q4 15:00
Upset · 43% at kickoffComeback from 19%Overtime

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1BUFBills · Q4 5:35 · CIN at BUFJ.Burrow pass short right intended for J.Chase INTERCEPTED by C.Benford at BUF 37. C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5619% → 75%
  2. 2CINBengals · Q3 0:52 · CIN at BUFJ.Cook left tackle to CIN 2 for no gain (D.Turner; J.Battle). FUMBLES (D.Turner), RECOVERED by CIN-O.Burks at CIN -3. Touchback.+2829% → 57%
  3. 3BALRavens · Q4 3:36 · PIT at BALL.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers to PIT 13 for 33 yards (P.Wilson).+2629% → 55%
  4. 4PHIEagles · Q4 15:00 · PHI at LACS.Barkley left end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2542% → 67%
  5. 5LACChargers · Q4 11:12 · PHI at LACJ.Hurts pass deep middle intended for A.Brown INTERCEPTED by C.Hart at LAC 38. C.Hart ran ob at PHI 35 for 27 yards (D.Goedert).+2423% → 47%
  6. 6PITSteelers · Q4 2:28 · PIT at BALL.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to M.Andrews.+2262% → 84%
  7. 7PITSteelers · Q4 0:09 · PIT at BALL.Jackson sacked at PIT 38 for -8 yards (A.Highsmith).+2278% → 100%
  8. 8CLEBrowns · Q2 2:58 · TEN at CLES.Sanders pass deep middle to J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2151% → 72%
  9. 9LACChargers · Q2 8:31 · PHI at LACJ.Hurts pass short middle intended for A.Brown INTERCEPTED by D.Hand at LAC 17. D.Hand to LAC 24 for 7 yards (W.Shipley). FUMBLES (W.Shipley),…+2044% → 64%
  10. 10TENTitans · Q4 11:07 · TEN at CLES.Sanders pass short right to D.Sampson to CLE 25 for 5 yards (M.Harris). FUMBLES (M.Harris), RECOVERED by TEN-C.Gray at CLE 27. C.Gray to CLE 8…+2061% → 81%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1CLEBrowns · Q2 2:58 · vs TEN · Jerry JeudyS.Sanders pass deep middle to J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.9EPA
  2. 2TENTitans · Q1 1:42 · vs CLE · Tony PollardO.T.Pollard right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.3EPA
  3. 3LACChargers · Q1 10:58 · vs PHI · Kimani VidalJ.Herbert pass short left to K.Vidal pushed ob at PHI 17 for 60 yards.+5.2EPA
  4. 4GBPackers · Q2 0:45 · vs CHI · B.MeltonJ.Love pass deep middle to B.Melton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.0EPA
  5. 5PHIEagles · Q4 15:00 · vs LAC · Saquon BarkleyS.Barkley left end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.9EPA
  6. 6PITSteelers · Q3 3:38 · vs BAL · Jaylen WarrenA.Rodgers pass short right to J.Warren for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.7EPA
  7. 7CINBengals · Q4 2:19 · vs BUF · Tee HigginsJ.Burrow pass deep right to T.Higgins for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA
  8. 8GBPackers · Q3 6:17 · vs CHI · Christian WatsonJ.Love pass short middle to C.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA
  9. 9LARams · Q4 13:56 · vs ARI · Blake CorumB.Corum right tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA
  10. 10LARams · Q2 0:18 · vs ARI · Puka NacuaM.Stafford pass deep left to P.Nacua for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1LARamsat ARI · W 45–17+0.44+0.31 vs usual
2DETLionsvs DAL · W 44–30+0.33+0.27 vs usual
3MINVikingsvs WAS · W 31–0+0.31+0.45 vs usual
4PITSteelersat BAL · W 27–22+0.27+0.29 vs usual
5BUFBillsvs CIN · W 39–34+0.26+0.12 vs usual
6GBPackersvs CHI · W 28–21+0.24+0.12 vs usual
7MIADolphinsat NYJ · W 34–10+0.21+0.24 vs usual
8DENBroncosat LV · W 24–17+0.16+0.13 vs usual
9SEASeahawksat ATL · W 37–9+0.15+0.11 vs usual
10CINBengalsat BUF · L 34–39+0.12+0.14 vs usual
11CHIBearsat GB · L 21–28+0.11+0.04 vs usual
12JAXJaguarsvs IND · W 36–19+0.09+0.06 vs usual
13NOSaintsat TB · W 24–20+0.02+0.11 vs usual
14BALRavensvs PIT · L 22–27+0.01−0.02 vs usual
15DALCowboysat DET · L 30–44−0.01−0.12 vs usual
16LVRaidersvs DEN · L 17–24−0.05+0.17 vs usual
17CLEBrownsvs TEN · L 29–31−0.06+0.14 vs usual
18ARICardinalsvs LA · L 17–45−0.06−0.05 vs usual
19HOUTexansat KC · W 20–10−0.08−0.05 vs usual
20TENTitansat CLE · W 31–29−0.09+0.07 vs usual
21TBBuccaneersvs NO · L 20–24−0.18−0.18 vs usual
22INDColtsat JAX · L 19–36−0.19−0.28 vs usual
23PHIEaglesat LAC · L 19–22−0.26−0.30 vs usual
24LACChargersvs PHI · W 22–19−0.27−0.25 vs usual
25KCChiefsvs HOU · L 10–20−0.29−0.35 vs usual
26ATLFalconsvs SEA · L 9–37−0.36−0.36 vs usual
27WASCommandersat MIN · L 0–31−0.43−0.46 vs usual
28NYJJetsvs MIA · L 10–34−0.45−0.35 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs CIN · 22/28, 251 yds, 3 TD · 9-78 rush+21.7
  2. 216Trevor LawrenceJAX vs IND · 17/30, 244 yds, 2 TD · 4-16 rush+16.1
  3. 39Matthew StaffordLA vs ARI · 22/31, 281 yds, 3 TD+15.4
  4. 416Jared GoffDET vs DAL · 25/34, 309 yds, 1 TD+12.2
  5. 58Aaron RodgersPIT vs BAL · 23/34, 284 yds, 1 TD+11.9
  6. 614Sam DarnoldSEA vs ATL · 20/30, 249 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 3-23 rush+11.2
  7. 712Shedeur SandersCLE vs TEN · 23/42, 364 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 3-29 rush+8.7
  8. 89Joe BurrowCIN vs BUF · 25/36, 284 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT+8.2
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 122Blake CorumLA vs ARI · 12 car, 128 yds, 2 TD · 1-3 rec+8.1
  2. 228De'Von AchaneMIA vs NYJ · 7 car, 92 yds, 1 TD · 1-13 rec+7.5
  3. 312RJ HarveyDEN vs LV · 17 car, 75 yds, 1 TD · 6-25 rec+7.2
  4. 423Kyren WilliamsLA vs ARI · 13 car, 84 yds, 1 TD · 2-13 rec+6.5
  5. 50Jahmyr GibbsDET vs DAL · 12 car, 43 yds, 3 TD · 7-77 rec+5.7
  6. 65David MontgomeryDET vs DAL · 6 car, 60 yds, 1 TD · 1-13 rec+5.6
  7. 732Isaiah DavisNYJ vs MIA · 2 car, 22 yds+4.1
  8. 834Samaje PerineCIN vs BUF · 6 car, 31 yds · 1-7 rec+4.0
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs CIN · QB37.8
  2. 212Shedeur SandersCLE vs TEN · QB33.5
  3. 30Jahmyr GibbsDET vs DAL · RB30.0
  4. 412Puka NacuaLA vs ARI · WR28.7
  5. 520Tony PollardTEN vs CLE · RB28.1
  6. 614Michael WilsonARI vs LA · WR26.2
  7. 722Blake CorumLA vs ARI · RB25.1
  8. 89Joe BurrowCIN vs BUF · QB23.4
  9. 99Matthew StaffordLA vs ARI · QB23.2
  10. 1014Sam DarnoldSEA vs ATL · QB22.3
  11. 116Tyler ShoughNO vs TB · QB21.3
  12. 125Tee HigginsCIN vs BUF · WR21.2
  13. 138Lamar JacksonBAL vs PIT · QB21.1
  14. 1411Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs ATL · WR21.1
  15. 159Christian WatsonGB vs CHI · WR20.9
  16. 168Aaron RodgersPIT vs BAL · QB20.5
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs CIN · QB37.8
  2. 212Shedeur SandersCLE vs TEN · QB33.5
  3. 30Jahmyr GibbsDET vs DAL · RB33.5
  4. 412Puka NacuaLA vs ARI · WR32.2
  5. 514Michael WilsonARI vs LA · WR31.7
  6. 620Tony PollardTEN vs CLE · RB28.1
  7. 722Blake CorumLA vs ARI · RB25.6
  8. 811Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs ATL · WR24.6
  9. 95Tee HigginsCIN vs BUF · WR24.2
  10. 109Joe BurrowCIN vs BUF · QB23.4
  11. 119Matthew StaffordLA vs ARI · QB23.2
  12. 129Christian WatsonGB vs CHI · WR22.9
  13. 1314Sam DarnoldSEA vs ATL · QB22.3
  14. 1419Ryan FlournoyDAL vs DET · WR22.0
  15. 1544Harold Fannin Jr.CLE vs TEN · TE21.4
  16. 166Tyler ShoughNO vs TB · QB21.3
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs CIN · QB37.8
  2. 214Michael WilsonARI vs LA · WR37.2
  3. 30Jahmyr GibbsDET vs DAL · RB37.0
  4. 412Puka NacuaLA vs ARI · WR35.7
  5. 512Shedeur SandersCLE vs TEN · QB33.5
  6. 611Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs ATL · WR28.1
  7. 720Tony PollardTEN vs CLE · RB28.1
  8. 85Tee HigginsCIN vs BUF · WR27.2
  9. 919Ryan FlournoyDAL vs DET · WR26.5
  10. 1022Blake CorumLA vs ARI · RB26.1
  11. 1144Harold Fannin Jr.CLE vs TEN · TE25.4
  12. 129Christian WatsonGB vs CHI · WR24.9
  13. 139Joe BurrowCIN vs BUF · QB23.4
  14. 149Matthew StaffordLA vs ARI · QB23.2
  15. 1514Sam DarnoldSEA vs ATL · QB22.3
  16. 1612RJ HarveyDEN vs LV · RB22.0
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 112Puka NacuaLA vs ARI · 7/11, 167 yds, 2 TD+11.1
  2. 29Christian WatsonGB vs CHI · 4/4, 89 yds, 2 TD+9.6
  3. 35Tee HigginsCIN vs BUF · 6/11, 92 yds, 2 TD+9.3
  4. 417Tim PatrickJAX vs IND · 5/6, 78 yds, 1 TD+8.8
  5. 588CeeDee LambDAL vs DET · 6/8, 121 yds+8.0
  6. 611Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs ATL · 7/10, 92 yds, 2 TD+7.6
  7. 74Zay FlowersBAL vs PIT · 8/11, 124 yds+7.2
  8. 84DK MetcalfPIT vs BAL · 7/12, 148 yds+6.8
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 188Mike GesickiCIN vs BUF · 6/6, 86 yds, 1 TD+9.5
  2. 288Dallas GoedertPHI vs LAC · 8/10, 78 yds+8.6
  3. 344Harold Fannin Jr.CLE vs TEN · 8/11, 114 yds, 1 TD+5.5
  4. 488Dawson KnoxBUF vs CIN · 6/7, 93 yds+4.7
  5. 585Jackson HawesBUF vs CIN · 1/1, 3 yds, 1 TD+4.2
  6. 686Dalton KincaidBUF vs CIN · 4/5, 41 yds, 1 TD+3.8
  7. 785Greg DulcichMIA vs NYJ · 3/3, 41 yds+3.4
  8. 884Colston LovelandCHI vs GB · 4/5, 29 yds, 1 TD+3.4

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 14 · against his own season363 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 14: John Metchie III (Jets) took 97% of the snaps, up 67 points on his season; Daniel Jones (Colts) fell to 23% from 97.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
3John Metchie IIINYJ · WR+67 pts30% → 97%82Andre BaccelliaARI · WR+65 pts14% → 79%18Jack BechLV · WR+53 pts29% → 82%15Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR+53 pts38% → 91%14Devaughn VeleNO · WR+47 pts46% → 93%
▼ Fallers
17Daniel JonesIND · QB−74 pts97% → 23%2Tyrod TaylorNYJ · QB−68 pts78% → 10%85David NjokuCLE · TE−60 pts69% → 9%8Marcus MariotaWAS · QB−55 pts80% → 25%0Matthew GoldenGB · WR−48 pts57% → 9%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
19Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR+20 pts7% → 28%17Chimere DikeTEN · WR+20 pts12% → 32%14Michael WilsonARI · WR+20 pts16% → 36%14Devaughn VeleNO · WR+18 pts7% → 25%88Dawson KnoxBUF · TE+17 pts9% → 26%
▼ Fallers
28De'Von AchaneMIA · RB−16 pts21% → 5%13Dontayvion WicksGB · WR−15 pts15% → 0%18Justin JeffersonMIN · WR−13 pts30% → 17%87Romeo DoubsGB · WR−12 pts21% → 9%28Jonathan TaylorIND · RB−11 pts11% → 0%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
9J.J. McCarthyMIN · QB+21.7 EPA-12.4 → +9.316Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB+13.3 EPA-1.9 → +11.412Shedeur SandersCLE · QB+12.3 EPA-5.5 → +6.917Josh AllenBUF · QB+11.4 EPA+5.3 → +16.788Mike GesickiCIN · TE+11.3 EPA-1.8 → +9.5
▼ Fallers
15Patrick MahomesKC · QB−30.2 EPA+7.8 → -22.31Jalen HurtsPHI · QB−19.2 EPA+2.9 → -16.210Justin HerbertLAC · QB−16.9 EPA+1.4 → -15.61Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WR−16.2 EPA+2.9 → -13.318Kirk CousinsATL · QB−13.3 EPA-2.1 → -15.4
New faces82Andre BaccelliaARI · WR · first start-level week, 79% of the snaps81Dylan DrummondATL · WR · first start-level week, 61% of the snaps86Anthony FirkserDET · TE · first start-level week, 56% of the snaps15Riley LeonardIND · QB · first start-level week, 77% of the snaps5Jaylen WrightMIA · RB · first start-level week, 52% of the snaps4Brady CookNYJ · QB · debut, 90% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.