2025
Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Bengals offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 39–34 from as low as 14% (Q4 8:44, down 28–18). The game turned for good at Q4 5:35: J.Burrow pass short right intended for J.Chase INTERCEPTED by C.Benford at BUF 37. C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN (19% → 75%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 5:35BUFJ.Burrow pass short right intended for J.Chase INTERCEPTED by C.Benford at BUF 37. C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point19% → 75%
- 2Q3 0:52CINJ.Cook left tackle to CIN 2 for no gain (D.Turner; J.Battle). FUMBLES (D.Turner), RECOVERED by CIN-O.Burks at CIN -3. Touchback.29% → 57%
- 3Q4 5:19BUFJ.Burrow pass short left intended for J.Chase INTERCEPTED by A.Epenesa (J.Phillips) at CIN 30. A.Epenesa to CIN 29 for 1 yard (D.Risner).73% → 90%
- 4Q4 7:41BUFJ.Allen scrambles left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.17% → 31%
- 5Q2 3:34CINJ.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to A.Iosivas (D.Walker) [D.Walker]. PENALTY on BUF-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced…51% → 62%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Gesicki led the Bengals at +9.5 EPA (6 catches for 86). J.Allen led the Bills at +21.7 EPA (22 of 28 for 251).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 25/36 | 284 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +8.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown67% | 12 | 63% | 23 | 1 | -4.3 |
| S.Perine37% | 6 | 32% | 31 | +2.3 | |
| J.Chase100% | 1 | 5% | 8 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Higgins73% | 11 | 31% | 6 | 92 | 2 | +9.3 |
| J.Chase100% | 8 | 22% | 5 | 44 | -13.3 | |
| M.Gesicki42% | 6 | 17% | 6 | 86 | 1 | +9.5 |
| C.Brown67% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 12 | 1 | +0.6 |
| A.Iosivas65% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 17 | +1.4 | |
| N.Fant42% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 15 | +0.5 | |
| S.Perine37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +1.7 | |
| T.Hudson10% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.5 |
Defense B.Hill 1 sack, G.Stone 1 sack, T.Slaton 1 sack
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 22/28 | 251 | 3 | 3 | +16.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook75% | 18 | 62% | 80 | -8.6 | |
| J.Allen100% | 9 | 31% | 78 | 1 | +5.0 |
| T.Johnson25% | 2 | 7% | 25 | +1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Knox55% | 7 | 26% | 6 | 93 | +4.7 | |
| D.Kincaid34% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 41 | 1 | +3.8 |
| T.Johnson25% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 14 | -1.1 | |
| K.Shakir50% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 16 | 1 | +0.9 |
| K.Coleman28% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 16 | +1.3 | |
| G.Davis58% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 21 | +3.8 | |
| J.Cook75% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 31 | +2.2 | |
| T.Shavers56% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 16 | +1.0 | |
| J.Hawes53% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3 | 1 | +4.2 |
Defense C.Benford 1 sack and 1 INT, A.Epenesa 1 INT · Kicking M.Prater 1/1 FG (long 26)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Bengals' run game is 5th in EPA per carry (+0.02). Bills allow +0.04 (29th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bills give up 27 yards a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 53. Bengals' tight ends produce 52 (15th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bengals gain 5.4 yards per play (16th). Bills give up 5.4 (16th), with the league at 5.4.
The Bills lead the series 9–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | CIN 34 at BUF 39 |
| 2023 · Wk 9 | BUF 18 at CIN 24 |
| 2022 · Wk 20 · playoffs | CIN 27 at BUF 10 |
| 2019 · Wk 3 | CIN 17 at BUF 21 |
| 2017 · Wk 5 | BUF 16 at CIN 20 |
2025 records
| Bengals | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 3–6 | 7–2 |
| Away | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 24.4 – 28.9 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.