2025
Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Seahawks offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 17 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 37–9 and were favored the whole way, never below 62%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 15:00, 16 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 15:00SEAZ.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 85%
- 2Q3 11:26ATLB.Robinson up the middle to SEA 18 for no gain (D.Lawrence; E.Jones). FUMBLES (D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-D.Witherspoon at SEA 12.…80% → 88%
- 3Q1 10:10SEAS.Darnold sacked at SEA 1 for -8 yards (J.Pearce).27% → 35%
- 4Q2 2:00ATLK.Cousins pass deep right to K.Pitts to SEA 30 for 30 yards (N.Emmanwori) [D.Hall].31% → 37%
- 5Q2 11:29ATLB.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 10, fair catch by R.Shaheed.22% → 27%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +11.2 EPA (20 of 30 for 249). T.Allgeier led the Falcons at +1.0 EPA (11 carries for 34).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold87% | 20/30 | 249 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +10.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III52% | 10 | 38% | 29 | -2.6 | |
| Z.Charbonnet41% | 7 | 27% | 46 | +0.5 | |
| V.Jr.10% | 4 | 15% | 32 | +1.2 | |
| S.Darnold87% | 3 | 12% | 23 | +1.2 | |
| D.Lock13% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.5 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba72% | 1 | 4% | -1 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba72% | 10 | 33% | 7 | 92 | 2 | +7.6 |
| R.Shaheed51% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 67 | +5.6 | |
| A.Barner67% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 27 | +1.9 | |
| C.Kupp69% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 35 | 1 | +3.1 |
| K.III52% | 3 | 10% | 1 | -1 | -1.9 | |
| Z.Charbonnet41% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 20 | +0.6 | |
| C.White28% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| E.Arroyo11% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -4.5 |
Defense N.Emmanwori 1 sack and 1 INT, D.Witherspoon 1 INT · Kicking J.Myers 3/3 FG (long 48)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 15/30 | 162 | 2 | 1 | -15.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson67% | 20 | 65% | 86 | -6.1 | |
| T.Allgeier39% | 11 | 35% | 34 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Pitts92% | 10 | 36% | 6 | 90 | 0.0 | |
| D.Drummond61% | 5 | 18% | 3 | 21 | -3.1 | |
| D.Sills94% | 4 | 14% | 0 | 0 | -7.2 | |
| D.Mooney77% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 6 | -4.0 | |
| T.Allgeier39% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 33 | +1.6 | |
| B.Robinson67% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 8 | +0.7 | |
| D.Thompkins9% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 |
Defense M.Hughes 1 INT, K.Street 1 sack, J.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 3/4 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Falcons give up 144 yards a game to wide receivers (20th), against a league average of 140. Seahawks' wide receivers produce 168 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Falcons are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.79 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Falcons give up 6.0 targets a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 7.3. Seahawks' tight ends produce 5.5 (30th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Seahawks average +0.04 EPA per play (10th). Falcons allow -0.01 (15th). League average is +0.01.
The Seahawks lead the series 10–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | SEA 37 at ATL 9 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | SEA 34 at ATL 14 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | ATL 27 at SEA 23 |
| 2020 · Wk 1 | SEA 38 at ATL 25 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | SEA 27 at ATL 20 |
2025 records
| Seahawks | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Away | 8–1 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 7 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 28.4 – 17.2 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | -0.01#15 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 45%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 5.3#15 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 10%#20 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | -0.03#13 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 10%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.02#24 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 4.4#23 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 41%#16 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 53%#4 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 144#20 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 46#8 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 6.0#5 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 30#17 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.