2025
Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 37–9 and were favored the whole way, never below 62%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 15:00, 16 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 15:00SEAZ.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 85%
- 2Q3 11:26SEAB.Robinson up the middle to SEA 18 for no gain (D.Lawrence; E.Jones). FUMBLES (D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-D.Witherspoon at SEA 12.…80% → 88%
- 3Q1 10:10ATLS.Darnold sacked at SEA 1 for -8 yards (J.Pearce).27% → 35%
- 4Q2 2:00ATLK.Cousins pass deep right to K.Pitts to SEA 30 for 30 yards (N.Emmanwori) [D.Hall].31% → 37%
- 5Q2 11:29ATLB.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 10, fair catch by R.Shaheed.22% → 27%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +11.2 EPA (20 of 30 for 249). T.Allgeier led the Falcons at +1.0 EPA (11 carries for 34).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold87% | 20/30 | 249 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +10.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III52% | 10 | 38% | 29 | -2.6 | |
| Z.Charbonnet41% | 7 | 27% | 46 | +0.5 | |
| V.Jr.10% | 4 | 15% | 32 | +1.2 | |
| S.Darnold87% | 3 | 12% | 23 | +1.2 | |
| D.Lock13% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.5 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba72% | 1 | 4% | -1 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba72% | 10 | 33% | 7 | 92 | 2 | +7.6 |
| R.Shaheed51% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 67 | +5.6 | |
| A.Barner67% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 27 | +1.9 | |
| C.Kupp69% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 35 | 1 | +3.1 |
| K.III52% | 3 | 10% | 1 | -1 | -1.9 | |
| Z.Charbonnet41% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 20 | +0.6 | |
| C.White28% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| E.Arroyo11% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -4.5 |
Defense N.Emmanwori 1 sack and 1 INT, D.Witherspoon 1 INT · Kicking J.Myers 3/3 FG (long 48)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 15/30 | 162 | 2 | 1 | -15.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson67% | 20 | 65% | 86 | -6.1 | |
| T.Allgeier39% | 11 | 35% | 34 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Pitts92% | 10 | 36% | 6 | 90 | 0.0 | |
| D.Drummond61% | 5 | 18% | 3 | 21 | -3.1 | |
| D.Sills94% | 4 | 14% | 0 | 0 | -7.2 | |
| D.Mooney77% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 6 | -4.0 | |
| T.Allgeier39% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 33 | +1.6 | |
| B.Robinson67% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 8 | +0.7 | |
| D.Thompkins9% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 |
Defense M.Hughes 1 INT, K.Street 1 sack, J.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 3/4 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Seahawks give up 41 yards a game to running backs (27th), against a league average of 32. Falcons' running backs produce 54 (2nd).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Seahawks
Falcons convert 34% of third downs (30th). Seahawks allow 34% (1st).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Falcons gain 5.5 yards per play (13th). Seahawks give up 4.8 (4th), with the league at 5.4.
The Seahawks lead the series 10–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | SEA 37 at ATL 9 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | SEA 34 at ATL 14 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | ATL 27 at SEA 23 |
| 2020 · Wk 1 | SEA 38 at ATL 25 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | SEA 27 at ATL 20 |
2025 records
| Seahawks | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Away | 8–1 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 7 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 28.4 – 17.2 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#23 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#16 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#13 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#14 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#5 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#20 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#7 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#30 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#10 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#28 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#11 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#14 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 54#2 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.