2025
Week 14 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Cowboys offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 44–30 and were favored the whole way, never below 54%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 9:59, 11 points for the Cowboys.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:59DALD.Prescott pass deep right to R.Flournoy for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10% → 21%
- 2Q4 8:26DETJ.Goff pass short left to J.Williams to DAL 26 for 29 yards (M.Bell). PENALTY on DAL-J.Houston, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at DAL 26.78% → 88%
- 3Q1 11:30DETJ.Goff sacked at DAL 20 for -10 yards (J.Houston).32% → 40%
- 4Q3 2:54DALB.Aubrey 63 yard field goal is GOOD7% → 15%
- 5Q1 5:48DALD.Prescott sacked in End Zone for -11 yards, SAFETY (J.Campbell). The Replay Official reviewed the safety ruling, and the play was REVERSED.…58% → 65%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Lamb led the Cowboys at +8.0 EPA (6 catches for 121). J.Goff led the Lions at +12.2 EPA (25 of 34 for 309).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 31/47 | 376 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams79% | 17 | 71% | 67 | 1 | +0.6 |
| D.Prescott100% | 3 | 13% | 14 | +0.6 | |
| M.Davis10% | 3 | 13% | 6 | -0.7 | |
| K.Turpin52% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Flournoy65% | 13 | 28% | 9 | 115 | 1 | +6.3 |
| G.Pickens84% | 9 | 19% | 5 | 37 | -4.6 | |
| C.Lamb46% | 8 | 17% | 6 | 121 | +8.0 | |
| J.Ferguson80% | 7 | 15% | 5 | 58 | -2.0 | |
| J.Williams79% | 4 | 9% | 2 | 0 | -2.9 | |
| K.Turpin52% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 26 | +2.2 | |
| L.Schoonmaker21% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 12 | +0.7 | |
| J.Mingo21% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| B.Spann-Ford16% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 7 | +0.5 |
Defense J.Houston 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 5/5 FG (long 63)
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 25/34 | 309 | 1 | 1 | +12.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs69% | 12 | 55% | 43 | 3 | +1.4 |
| D.Montgomery31% | 6 | 27% | 60 | 1 | +4.6 |
| J.Goff100% | 2 | 9% | -2 | 0.0 | |
| J.Williams92% | 1 | 5% | 7 | +0.7 | |
| M.Cunningham2% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown92% | 9 | 29% | 6 | 92 | +2.3 | |
| J.Williams92% | 9 | 29% | 7 | 96 | +5.7 | |
| J.Gibbs69% | 7 | 23% | 7 | 77 | +4.4 | |
| I.TeSlaa77% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 20 | 1 | +1.9 |
| A.Firkser56% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.9 | |
| R.Dwelley29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 | |
| D.Montgomery31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +1.0 |
Defense A.Muhammad 3 sacks, D.Reed 1 INT, D.Barnes 1 INT, A.McNeill 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 3/4 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Lions give up 156 yards a game to wide receivers (24th), against a league average of 140. Cowboys' wide receivers produce 212 (1st).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Lions give up 25 yards a game to running backs (5th), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Cowboys succeed on 47% of plays (5th) against a defense that allows 42% (9th).
The Cowboys lead the series 11–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). The Lions have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | DAL 30 at DET 44 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | DET 47 at DAL 9 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | DET 19 at DAL 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | DET 6 at DAL 24 |
| 2019 · Wk 11 | DAL 35 at DET 27 |
2025 records
| Cowboys | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–9–1 | 9–8 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 4–7–1 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 4–3–1 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | WLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.7 – 30.1 | 28.3 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.10#4 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#5 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#2 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.16#6 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#6 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#8 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#6 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#8 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 212#1 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#20 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.1#10 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 18#32 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.