2025
Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 18 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 36–19; their low point was 37% at Q1 13:47. The Colts had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 3:13: T.Lawrence pass short right to B.Strange to IND 14 for 16 yards (C.Ward; Z.Franklin) (48% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:04, 12 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:04INDD.Jones pass short middle intended for M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by D.Lloyd at IND 27. D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (J.Downs).39% → 52%
- 2Q2 2:40JAXB.Tuten left end to IND 46 for -1 yards (G.Stewart). FUMBLES (G.Stewart), RECOVERED by IND-G.Pratt at IND 46. G.Pratt to IND 47 for 1 yard…20% → 31%
- 3Q1 3:54JAXT.Lawrence pass deep right to B.Thomas pushed ob at IND 30 for 39 yards (C.Ward).39% → 48%
- 4Q2 1:37JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left to T.Patrick ran ob at IND 23 for 37 yards (J.Jones).73% → 82%
- 5Q2 12:59JAXT.Etienne right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 76%
- ★Q1 3:13JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to B.Strange to IND 14 for 16 yards (C.Ward; Z.Franklin).turning point48% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Pierce led the Colts at +6.0 EPA (5 catches for 80). T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +16.1 EPA (17 of 30 for 244).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Leonard77% | 18/29 | 145 | 1 | 1 | -4.2 | |
| D.Jones23% | 5/7 | 60 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor74% | 21 | 81% | 74 | 1 | -8.6 |
| R.Leonard77% | 2 | 8% | 5 | 1 | +2.2 |
| A.Abdullah24% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.8 | |
| D.Jones23% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 | |
| T.Warren93% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Pittman87% | 12 | 33% | 9 | 79 | -4.7 | |
| A.Pierce83% | 8 | 22% | 5 | 80 | +6.0 | |
| T.Warren93% | 6 | 17% | 2 | 15 | -2.3 | |
| J.Downs66% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 23 | +1.3 | |
| A.Abdullah24% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 5 | -1.3 | |
| M.Alie-Cox27% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -2.1 | |
| A.Gould6% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.4 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Grupe 2/2 FG (long 36)
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence91% | 17/30 | 244 | 2 | +11.5 | ||
| N.Mullens9% | 1/1 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne72% | 20 | 63% | 74 | 2 | -6.2 |
| T.Lawrence91% | 4 | 13% | 16 | +4.7 | |
| N.Mullens9% | 3 | 9% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| J.Meyers83% | 3 | 9% | 9 | +0.5 | |
| B.Tuten3% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -4.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers83% | 10 | 32% | 4 | 39 | 1 | -1.8 |
| T.Patrick66% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 78 | 1 | +8.8 |
| B.Strange80% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 27 | -0.8 | |
| B.Jr.83% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 87 | +5.6 | |
| L.Jr.25% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 8 | -1.2 | |
| T.Etienne72% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.3 |
Defense G.II 1 INT, D.Lloyd 1 INT, J.Hines-Allen 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 2/2 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Colts take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (7th). Jaguars get home on 5% (30th). League average is 7%.
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Colts send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Colts gain +0.06 EPA per dropback (10th). Jaguars allow -0.12 (4th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Colts average +0.08 EPA per play (7th). Jaguars allow -0.09 (6th). League average is +0.01.
The Colts lead the series 27–23 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Jaguars have won the last 3. Nov 1, 2026, at EverBank Stadium: the Jaguars won 42–7. Trevor Lawrence started at quarterback for the Jaguars and Daniel Jones for the Colts; Liam Coen and Shane Steichen coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | IND 7 at JAX 42 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | JAX 23 at IND 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | IND 19 at JAX 36 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 · OT | JAX 23 at IND 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | IND 34 at JAX 37 |
2025 records
| Colts | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 13–4 |
| Division | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Away | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 8 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 27.9 – 19.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | -0.09#6 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 42%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 8%#3 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | -0.12#4 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 5%#30 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.07#16 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 3.7#4 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 42%#21 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 64%#24 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 143#18 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 59#23 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 8.7#31 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 32#20 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.