2025
Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 17 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 36–19; their low point was 37% at Q1 13:47. The Colts had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 3:13: T.Lawrence pass short right to B.Strange to IND 14 for 16 yards (C.Ward; Z.Franklin) (48% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:04, 12 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:04JAXD.Jones pass short middle intended for M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by D.Lloyd at IND 27. D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (J.Downs).39% → 52%
- 2Q2 2:40INDB.Tuten left end to IND 46 for -1 yards (G.Stewart). FUMBLES (G.Stewart), RECOVERED by IND-G.Pratt at IND 46. G.Pratt to IND 47 for 1 yard…20% → 31%
- 3Q1 3:54JAXT.Lawrence pass deep right to B.Thomas pushed ob at IND 30 for 39 yards (C.Ward).39% → 48%
- 4Q2 1:37JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left to T.Patrick ran ob at IND 23 for 37 yards (J.Jones).73% → 82%
- 5Q2 12:59JAXT.Etienne right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 76%
- ★Q1 3:13JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to B.Strange to IND 14 for 16 yards (C.Ward; Z.Franklin).turning point48% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Pierce led the Colts at +6.0 EPA (5 catches for 80). T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +16.1 EPA (17 of 30 for 244).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Leonard77% | 18/29 | 145 | 1 | 1 | -4.2 | |
| D.Jones23% | 5/7 | 60 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor74% | 21 | 81% | 74 | 1 | -8.6 |
| R.Leonard77% | 2 | 8% | 5 | 1 | +2.2 |
| A.Abdullah24% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.8 | |
| D.Jones23% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 | |
| T.Warren93% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Pittman87% | 12 | 33% | 9 | 79 | -4.7 | |
| A.Pierce83% | 8 | 22% | 5 | 80 | +6.0 | |
| T.Warren93% | 6 | 17% | 2 | 15 | -2.3 | |
| J.Downs66% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 23 | +1.3 | |
| A.Abdullah24% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 5 | -1.3 | |
| M.Alie-Cox27% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -2.1 | |
| A.Gould6% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.4 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Grupe 2/2 FG (long 36)
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence91% | 17/30 | 244 | 2 | +11.5 | ||
| N.Mullens9% | 1/1 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne72% | 20 | 63% | 74 | 2 | -6.2 |
| T.Lawrence91% | 4 | 13% | 16 | +4.7 | |
| N.Mullens9% | 3 | 9% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| J.Meyers83% | 3 | 9% | 9 | +0.5 | |
| B.Tuten3% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -4.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers83% | 10 | 32% | 4 | 39 | 1 | -1.8 |
| T.Patrick66% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 78 | 1 | +8.8 |
| B.Strange80% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 27 | -0.8 | |
| B.Jr.83% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 87 | +5.6 | |
| L.Jr.25% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 8 | -1.2 | |
| T.Etienne72% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.3 |
Defense G.II 1 INT, D.Lloyd 1 INT, J.Hines-Allen 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 2/2 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Colts give up 168 yards a game to wide receivers (31st), against a league average of 140. Jaguars' wide receivers produce 164 (6th).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.86 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 11% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Colts give up 24 yards a game to running backs (4th), against a league average of 32. Jaguars' running backs produce 27 (23rd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jaguars gain 5.4 yards per play (15th). Colts give up 5.4 (17th), with the league at 5.4.
The Colts lead the series 27–23 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Jaguars have won the last 3. Nov 1, 2026, at EverBank Stadium: the Jaguars won 42–7. Trevor Lawrence started at quarterback for the Jaguars and Daniel Jones for the Colts; Liam Coen and Shane Steichen coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | IND 7 at JAX 42 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | JAX 23 at IND 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | IND 19 at JAX 36 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 · OT | JAX 23 at IND 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | IND 34 at JAX 37 |
2025 records
| Colts | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 13–4 |
| Division | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Away | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 8 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 27.9 – 19.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | +0.00#16 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 9%#14 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | +0.04#18 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | -0.09#8 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 3.8#5 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 44%#25 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 56%#12 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 168#31 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 70#31 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 8.4#29 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 24#4 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.