2025
Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Saints offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Saints won 24–20 from as low as 15% (Q2 3:50, down 10–7). The Buccaneers had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 9:03: T.Shough pass short right to D.Neal pushed ob at TB 13 for 14 yards (A.Winfield) (49% → 59%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 8:34, 16 points for the Saints.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 8:34NOT.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.59% → 75%
- 2Q3 12:54TBB.Mayfield pass deep right intended for K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by A.Taylor at NO 43. A.Taylor to TB 47 for 10 yards (P.Durham).18% → 31%
- 3Q4 8:26TBB.Irving left guard pushed ob at NO 28 for 32 yards (J.Howden).29% → 41%
- 4Q4 1:27TBB.Mayfield pass short middle to C.Otton to TB 29 for 3 yards (D.Davis).87% → 98%
- 5Q4 12:10NOT.Shough pass short left to C.Olave to TB 41 for 12 yards (S.Dennis).40% → 50%
- ★Q4 9:03NOT.Shough pass short right to D.Neal pushed ob at TB 13 for 14 yards (A.Winfield).turning point49% → 59%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Shough led the Saints at +4.9 EPA (13 of 20 for 144). R.White led the Buccaneers at +1.9 EPA (11 carries for 53).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough100% | 13/20 | 144 | 1 | 3 | +1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Neal71% | 19 | 59% | 70 | 1 | -4.2 |
| T.Shough100% | 7 | 22% | 55 | 2 | +3.1 |
| A.Estimé17% | 3 | 9% | 11 | -0.4 | |
| T.Hill41% | 2 | 6% | -1 | -1.3 | |
| E.Hull12% | 1 | 3% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave93% | 5 | 25% | 3 | 30 | -1.4 | |
| D.Vele93% | 5 | 25% | 3 | 40 | +3.1 | |
| J.Johnson53% | 4 | 20% | 4 | 38 | +2.9 | |
| T.Hill41% | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| F.Moreau45% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 16 | +1.8 | |
| J.Stoll22% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| E.Hull12% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 | |
| D.Neal71% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 14 | +2.0 |
Defense A.Taylor 1 INT · Kicking C.Smyth 1/2 FG (long 30)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 14/30 | 122 | 1 | 1 | -9.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving49% | 15 | 38% | 55 | -6.8 | |
| R.White49% | 11 | 28% | 53 | +2.9 | |
| S.Tucker16% | 7 | 18% | 29 | 1 | -1.3 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 6 | 15% | 42 | +2.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka88% | 9 | 32% | 2 | 15 | -2.8 | |
| C.Jr.69% | 8 | 29% | 5 | 55 | -0.6 | |
| C.Otton81% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 19 | -1.1 | |
| B.Irving49% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 26 | 1 | +1.7 |
| R.White49% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 2 | -1.0 | |
| S.Shepard57% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 | |
| K.Johnson8% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -5.6 |
Defense Z.McCollum 1 INT, V.Vea 1 sack, G.Gaines 1 sack, C.Braswell 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Buccaneers give up 57 yards a game to tight ends (22nd), against a league average of 53. Saints' tight ends produce 60 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Saints send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Saints' run game is 31st in EPA per carry (-0.15). Buccaneers allow -0.11 (5th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Saints gain 5.0 yards per play (27th). Buccaneers give up 5.8 (24th), with the league at 5.4.
The Saints lead the series 28–23 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | NO 24 at TB 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 8 | TB 23 at NO 3 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | NO 19 at TB 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | TB 51 at NO 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | NO 23 at TB 13 |
2025 records
| Saints | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Away | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.