2025
Week 8 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
vs
Buccaneers offensevsSaints defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 17 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 23–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 61%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 6:48, 17 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 6:48TBS.Rattler pass short right intended for F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by A.Nelson at NO 3. A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-K.Banks, Illegal…65% → 82%
- 2Q1 12:25TBS.Rattler scrambles left guard to TB 34 for 7 yards (A.Nelson; S.Dennis). FUMBLES (A.Nelson), touched at TB 33, RECOVERED by TB-L.David at TB 32.63% → 73%
- 3Q2 0:57NOB.Mayfield sacked at TB 40 for -11 yards (C.Young). FUMBLES (C.Young) [C.Young], touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by NO-C.Young at TB 40. C.Young to TB…13% → 20%
- 4Q2 7:28NOS.Tucker left guard to NO 1 for no gain (C.Rumph; N.Shepherd).26% → 33%
- 5Q2 0:42TBS.Rattler sacked at TB 45 for -8 yards (J.Parrish).80% → 86%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Otton led the Buccaneers at +2.7 EPA (4 catches for 40). B.Cooks led the Saints at +3.0 EPA (3 catches for 22).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield97% | 15/24 | 152 | 3 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White55% | 13 | 45% | 35 | -1.6 | |
| S.Tucker34% | 12 | 41% | 42 | 1 | -3.1 |
| J.Williams10% | 4 | 14% | 11 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka88% | 9 | 38% | 3 | 35 | -2.3 | |
| T.Johnson71% | 6 | 25% | 5 | 43 | +1.5 | |
| C.Otton97% | 5 | 21% | 4 | 40 | +2.7 | |
| S.Shepard41% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 8 | +0.4 | |
| R.White55% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 26 | +2.7 |
Defense A.Nelson 2 sacks and 1 INT, A.Jr. 1 INT, S.Dennis 1 sack, J.Parrish 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 3/3 FG (long 55)
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough54% | 17/30 | 128 | 1 | 2 | -15.1 | |
| S.Rattler46% | 15/21 | 136 | 1 | 3 | -7.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara51% | 6 | 40% | 21 | -0.7 | |
| S.Rattler46% | 3 | 20% | 12 | -5.5 | |
| T.Shough54% | 3 | 20% | 12 | +0.8 | |
| T.Hill7% | 2 | 13% | 6 | +0.5 | |
| C.Olave93% | 1 | 7% | -3 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave93% | 12 | 24% | 8 | 63 | -4.3 | |
| R.Shaheed78% | 12 | 24% | 9 | 75 | -2.6 | |
| J.Johnson76% | 8 | 16% | 5 | 53 | -0.6 | |
| D.Vele51% | 5 | 10% | 1 | 10 | -1.2 | |
| B.Cooks61% | 4 | 8% | 3 | 22 | +3.0 | |
| D.Neal46% | 3 | 6% | 3 | 11 | -3.0 | |
| A.Kamara51% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 24 | +1.5 | |
| T.Hill7% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 | |
| F.Moreau18% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -7.4 | |
| J.Stoll12% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -3.5 | |
| M.Tipton6% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense C.Young 1.5 sacks, N.Shepherd 1 sack, J.Reid 0.5 sacks · Kicking B.Grupe 1/1 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Saints give up 122 yards a game to wide receivers (6th), against a league average of 140. Buccaneers' wide receivers produce 155 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Saints are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.24 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Buccaneers' run game is 24th in EPA per carry (-0.08). Saints allow -0.12 (4th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (15th). Saints give them up at 9% (16th).
The Saints lead the series 28–23 since 1999. Dec 7, 2025, at Raymond James Stadium: the Saints won 24–20. Baker Mayfield started at quarterback for the Buccaneers and Tyler Shough for the Saints; Todd Bowles and Kellen Moore coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | NO 24 at TB 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 8 | TB 23 at NO 3 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | NO 19 at TB 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | TB 51 at NO 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | NO 23 at TB 13 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 6–11 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Away | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 18.0 – 22.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors NO | NO def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | -0.06#10 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 42%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 5.0#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 9%#16 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.05#12 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | -0.12#4 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 3.9#9 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 36%#4 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 55%#11 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 122#6 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 51#13 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 7.4#17 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 24#3 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Saints: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.