2025
Week 8 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
vs
Saints offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 23–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 61%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 6:48, 17 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 6:48TBS.Rattler pass short right intended for F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by A.Nelson at NO 3. A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-K.Banks, Illegal…65% → 82%
- 2Q1 12:25TBS.Rattler scrambles left guard to TB 34 for 7 yards (A.Nelson; S.Dennis). FUMBLES (A.Nelson), touched at TB 33, RECOVERED by TB-L.David at TB 32.63% → 73%
- 3Q2 0:57NOB.Mayfield sacked at TB 40 for -11 yards (C.Young). FUMBLES (C.Young) [C.Young], touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by NO-C.Young at TB 40. C.Young to TB…13% → 20%
- 4Q2 7:28NOS.Tucker left guard to NO 1 for no gain (C.Rumph; N.Shepherd).26% → 33%
- 5Q2 0:42TBS.Rattler sacked at TB 45 for -8 yards (J.Parrish).80% → 86%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Otton led the Buccaneers at +2.7 EPA (4 catches for 40). B.Cooks led the Saints at +3.0 EPA (3 catches for 22).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield97% | 15/24 | 152 | 3 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White55% | 13 | 45% | 35 | -1.6 | |
| S.Tucker34% | 12 | 41% | 42 | 1 | -3.1 |
| J.Williams10% | 4 | 14% | 11 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka88% | 9 | 38% | 3 | 35 | -2.3 | |
| T.Johnson71% | 6 | 25% | 5 | 43 | +1.5 | |
| C.Otton97% | 5 | 21% | 4 | 40 | +2.7 | |
| S.Shepard41% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 8 | +0.4 | |
| R.White55% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 26 | +2.7 |
Defense A.Nelson 2 sacks and 1 INT, A.Jr. 1 INT, S.Dennis 1 sack, J.Parrish 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 3/3 FG (long 55)
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough54% | 17/30 | 128 | 1 | 2 | -15.1 | |
| S.Rattler46% | 15/21 | 136 | 1 | 3 | -7.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara51% | 6 | 40% | 21 | -0.7 | |
| S.Rattler46% | 3 | 20% | 12 | -5.5 | |
| T.Shough54% | 3 | 20% | 12 | +0.8 | |
| T.Hill7% | 2 | 13% | 6 | +0.5 | |
| C.Olave93% | 1 | 7% | -3 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave93% | 12 | 24% | 8 | 63 | -4.3 | |
| R.Shaheed78% | 12 | 24% | 9 | 75 | -2.6 | |
| J.Johnson76% | 8 | 16% | 5 | 53 | -0.6 | |
| D.Vele51% | 5 | 10% | 1 | 10 | -1.2 | |
| B.Cooks61% | 4 | 8% | 3 | 22 | +3.0 | |
| D.Neal46% | 3 | 6% | 3 | 11 | -3.0 | |
| A.Kamara51% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 24 | +1.5 | |
| T.Hill7% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 | |
| F.Moreau18% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -7.4 | |
| J.Stoll12% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -3.5 | |
| M.Tipton6% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense C.Young 1.5 sacks, N.Shepherd 1 sack, J.Reid 0.5 sacks · Kicking B.Grupe 1/1 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Buccaneers give up 57 yards a game to tight ends (22nd), against a league average of 53. Saints' tight ends produce 60 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Saints send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Saints' run game is 31st in EPA per carry (-0.15). Buccaneers allow -0.11 (5th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Saints gain 5.0 yards per play (27th). Buccaneers give up 5.8 (24th), with the league at 5.4.
The Saints lead the series 28–23 since 1999. Dec 7, 2025, at Raymond James Stadium: the Saints won 24–20. Baker Mayfield started at quarterback for the Buccaneers and Tyler Shough for the Saints; Todd Bowles and Kellen Moore coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | NO 24 at TB 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 8 | TB 23 at NO 3 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | NO 19 at TB 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | TB 51 at NO 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | NO 23 at TB 13 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 6–11 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Away | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 18.0 – 22.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.