2025
Week 14 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Bears offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 18 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 28–21 and were favored the whole way, never below 64%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:27, 14 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:27GBC.Williams pass deep left intended for C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.86% → 99%
- 2Q4 8:05CHIT.C.Williams pass short right to C.Loveland for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.23% → 36%
- 3Q3 6:17GBJ.Love pass short middle to C.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.78% → 91%
- 4Q1 5:56CHIJ.Love pass deep middle intended for M.Golden INTERCEPTED by C.Gardner-Johnson at CHI 36. C.Gardner-Johnson ran ob at GB 36 for 28 yards (Z.Tom).24% → 36%
- 5Q2 0:45GBJ.Love pass deep middle to B.Melton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.83% → 93%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
L.III led the Bears at +5.8 EPA (4 catches for 67). C.Watson led the Packers at +9.6 EPA (4 catches for 89).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 19/35 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Monangai41% | 14 | 44% | 57 | +1.7 | |
| D.Swift57% | 13 | 41% | 63 | +4.5 | |
| C.Williams100% | 4 | 13% | 15 | +1.6 | |
| L.III71% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.III71% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 67 | +6.0 | |
| C.Loveland59% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 29 | 1 | +3.4 |
| D.Swift57% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 19 | -0.6 | |
| D.Moore83% | 3 | 11% | 1 | -4 | -2.9 | |
| O.Zaccheaus79% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 7 | 1 | +0.4 |
| C.Kmet76% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 42 | -0.1 | |
| K.Monangai41% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| D.Smythe29% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| D.Duvernay1% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 24 | +2.0 |
Defense C.Gardner-Johnson 1 INT, M.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 2/2 FG (long 41)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 17/25 | 234 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +8.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs72% | 20 | 77% | 86 | 1 | +3.3 |
| E.Wilson15% | 3 | 12% | 10 | -0.3 | |
| J.Reed47% | 2 | 8% | 22 | +1.2 | |
| J.Love100% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Watson83% | 4 | 17% | 4 | 89 | 2 | +9.6 |
| L.Musgrave40% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 22 | +1.4 | |
| J.Reed47% | 4 | 17% | 4 | 31 | +1.4 | |
| J.Jacobs72% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 6 | -0.3 | |
| B.Melton | 2 | 9% | 1 | 45 | 1 | +3.8 |
| J.FitzPatrick57% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 14 | +0.7 | |
| R.Doubs81% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| J.Whyle42% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 21 | +2.1 | |
| C.Brooks15% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | -0.8 | |
| M.Golden9% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -4.5 |
Defense K.Nixon 1 INT, K.Enagbare 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Bears take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (2nd). Packers get home on 6% (26th). League average is 7%.
Deep right is open
Packers are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.52 EPA per attempt. Bears send 11% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Packers give up 29 yards a game to running backs (12th), against a league average of 32. Bears' running backs produce 29 (17th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bears gain 5.7 yards per play (10th). Packers give up 5.1 (9th), with the league at 5.4.
The Packers lead the series 41–16 since 1999. Oct 11, 2026, at Lambeau Field: the Packers won 31–7. Jordan Love started at quarterback for the Packers and Tyson Bagent for the Bears; Matt LaFleur and Ben Johnson coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | CHI 7 at GB 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 19 · playoffs | GB 27 at CHI 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 · OT | GB 16 at CHI 22 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | CHI 21 at GB 28 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CHI 24 at GB 22 |
2025 records
| Bears | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 9–7–1 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 7–4–1 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | WLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 23.0 – 21.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | +0.04#22 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 8%#5 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | +0.09#23 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 6%#26 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.05#17 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 4.1#13 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 42%#20 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 59%#16 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 136#15 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 50#12 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 8.2#24 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 29#12 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.