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2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 16 · Saturday 8:20 PM ET · Soldier Field

Packers offensevsBears defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

GB offense CHI offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · OT · GB 16 · CHI 22

The Bears won 22–16 from as low as 3% (Q4 1:59, down 16⁠–⁠9). Tied 16–16 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 4:57: C.Williams pass deep left to D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:28, 22 points for the Bears.

At kickoffCHI 52%CHI by 1.5 on the line

CHI low point3%Q4 1:59 · down 16⁠–⁠9

Swings past 50%9times the favorite changed

Biggest swing22 ptsCHI · Q4 0:28

CHI wins50%GB wins

12345CHI low 3%

Overtime

CHI

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT

The plays that swung it

1Q4 0:28CHIC.Williams pass short right to J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16% → 38%+22
2Q3 7:12CHIJ.Jacobs left guard to CHI 3 for 1 yard (N.Wright; D.Robinson). FUMBLES (N.Wright), touched at CHI 3, RECOVERED by CHI-T.Edmunds at CHI 2.22% → 40%+18
3Q4 1:59CHIC.Santos kicks onside 12 yards from CHI 35 to CHI 47, impetus ends at CHI 47. RECOVERED by CHI-J.Blackwell. GB-R.Doubs was injured during the play.3% → 19%+16
4Q1 3:55GBDirect snap to K.Monangai. K.Monangai Aborted. D.Dalman FUMBLES at GB 10, recovered by CHI-K.Monangai at GB 22.35% → 46%+11
5Q3 14:19CHIC.Williams pass short right to K.Monangai pushed ob at GB 30 for 34 yards (X.McKinney).35% → 45%+11

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 16

M.Willis led the Packers at +10.2 EPA (9 of 11 for 121). C.Williams led the Bears at +8.8 EPA (19 of 34 for 250).

Packers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Love36%	8/13	77				+0.1
M.Willis64%	9/11	121	1		2	+7.6

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
E.Wilson46%	14	32%	82	+3.6
J.Jacobs39%	12	27%	36	-9.6
M.Willis64%	10	23%	44	+2.6
J.Love36%	2	5%	7	+0.3
S.Williams4%	2	5%	9	+0.1
M.Golden31%	2	5%	4	-0.6
C.Brooks21%	1	2%	4	-0.2
J.Reed64%	1	2%	6	+0.3

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
R.Doubs62%	6	25%	5	84	1	+8.2
C.Watson62%	6	25%	2	17		-4.7
L.Musgrave76%	3	13%	3	38		+3.4
J.Reed64%	3	13%	3	35		+1.2
J.Jacobs39%	2	8%	2	12		+0.8
D.Wicks42%	2	8%	2	12		+1.3
J.FitzPatrick36%	1	4%	0	0		-0.6
M.Golden31%	1	4%	0	0		-0.6

Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.McManus 3/3 FG (long 28)

Bears

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
C.Williams100%	19/34	250	2			+5.7

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
D.Swift55%	13	50%	58	-0.9
K.Monangai45%	9	35%	50	-2.5
C.Williams100%	3	12%	30	+3.1
D.Moore95%	1	4%	12	+0.7

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
D.Moore95%	7	24%	5	97	1	+5.5
O.Zaccheaus86%	5	17%	2	33		-0.3
C.Loveland83%	5	17%	3	30		-0.6
K.Monangai45%	4	14%	3	43		+2.1
C.Kmet77%	3	10%	2	14		-0.7
J.Walker27%	3	10%	2	21	1	+4.9
D.Swift55%	2	7%	2	12		-0.4

Defense M.Sweat 1 sack, T.Edwards 0.5 sacks, A.Booker 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Santos 3/3 FG (long 51)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Throw it

Packers gain +0.24 EPA per dropback (1st). Bears allow +0.05 (19th).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Checkdowns go nowhere

Bears give up 27 yards a game to running backs (6th), against a league average of 32. Packers' running backs produce 27 (20th).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Packers average +0.12 EPA per play (3rd). Bears allow +0.03 (21st). League average is +0.01.

The series · Packers and Bears since 1999, and this season's records57 meetings

The Packers lead the series 41–16 since 1999. Oct 11, 2026, at Lambeau Field: the Packers won 31–7. Jordan Love started at quarterback for the Packers and Tyson Bagent for the Bears; Matt LaFleur and Ben Johnson coached.

Packers at home19–9the Packers' record

In Chicago22–7the Packers' record

Most pointsPackers 55 · Bears 352014 · 2007

Biggest winPackers by 41 · Bears by 282014 · 2007

Playoffs1–1the Packers' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 5	CHI 7 at GB 31
2025 · Wk 19 · playoffs	GB 27 at CHI 31
2025 · Wk 16 · OT	GB 16 at CHI 22
2025 · Wk 14	CHI 21 at GB 28
2024 · Wk 18	CHI 24 at GB 22

2025 records

	Packers	Bears
Overall	9–7–1	11–6
Division	4–2	2–4
Conference	7–4–1	7–5
Other conference	2–3	4–1
Home	5–3	6–2
Away	4–4–1	5–4
Last 5	WLLLL	LWWLL
Streak	Lost 4	Lost 2
Points a game	23.0 – 21.2	25.9 – 24.4

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · GB offense against CHI defense

Stat	GB off	CHI def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.12#3	+0.03#21	+0.01
Success rate	47%#4	46%#25	44%
Yards per play	5.7#9	5.9#27	5.4
Explosive play rate	12%#3	12%#29	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.24#1	+0.05#19	+0.01
Sack rate	5%#8	6%#23	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.07#22	-0.03#19	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.1#21	4.7#29	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	48%#2	41%#15	40%
Red zone TD rate	60%#12	59%#17	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	150#13	163#26	140
TE yards per game	48#22	52#14	53
TE targets per game	5.6#28	7.4#18	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	27#20	27#6	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Packers: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.678% of throws

+0.266% of throws

+1.058% of throws

Short

+0.2428% of throws

+0.4014% of throws

+0.1936% of throws

Bears: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.3742 throws

+0.9327 throws

+0.1654 throws