DOWN X DOWN › week 14 › Titans at Browns

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2025

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Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium

Titans offensevsBrowns defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Titans, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

TEN offense CLE offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · TEN 31 · CLE 29

The Titans won 31–29 from as low as 21% (Q3 13:41, down 17⁠–⁠14). The Browns had been 68% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 0:58: T.Pollard left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN (39% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 2:58, 21 points for the Browns.

At kickoffCLE 68%CLE by 4.5 on the line

TEN low point21%Q3 13:41 · down 17⁠–⁠14

Swings past 50%17times the favorite changed

Biggest swing21 ptsCLE · Q2 2:58

CLE wins50%TEN wins

12345Turning pointTEN low 21%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 2:58CLES.Sanders pass deep middle to J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.51% → 72%+21 CLE
2Q4 11:07CLES.Sanders pass short right to D.Sampson to CLE 25 for 5 yards (M.Harris). FUMBLES (M.Harris), RECOVERED by TEN-C.Gray at CLE 27. C.Gray to CLE 8…61% → 81%+20 TEN
3Q3 0:58TENT.Pollard left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point39% → 56%+17 TEN
4Q1 3:54TENC.Ward pass short left intended for E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by D.Bush [G.Delpit] at CLE 17. D.Bush pushed ob at TEN 39 for 44 yards (D.Moore).39% → 54%+16 CLE
5Q1 1:42TENO.T.Pollard right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.49% → 64%+15 TEN

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 14

T.Pollard led the Titans at +3.7 EPA (25 carries for 161). S.Sanders led the Browns at +8.7 EPA (23 of 42 for 364).

Titans

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
C.Ward100%	14/28	117	2	1	1	-8.8

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
T.Pollard59%	25	71%	161	2	+3.7
T.Spears42%	8	23%	19		-1.1
C.Ward100%	2	6%	4		+0.3

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
C.Dike67%	8	32%	5	24	1	-0.1
V.Jefferson73%	4	16%	2	17		-0.9
T.Spears42%	4	16%	2	28		+1.3
E.Ayomanor80%	3	12%	1	14	1	-4.9
C.Okonkwo48%	2	8%	2	20		+2.2
G.Helm67%	2	8%	1	8		-1.5
J.Proche14%	1	4%	0	0		-1.3
D.Martin-Robinson24%	1	4%	1	6		+0.3

Defense X.Woods 1 INT, J.Simmons 1.5 sacks, J.Harrell 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Slye 1/1 FG (long 41)

Browns

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
S.Sanders97%	23/42	364	3	1	2	+6.9

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
Q.Judkins46%	14	70%	26		-5.6
S.Sanders97%	3	15%	29	1	+1.9
D.Sampson38%	2	10%	4		+0.3
M.Corley6%	1	5%	2		+0.1

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
H.Jr.90%	11	29%	8	114	1	+5.5
D.Sampson38%	6	16%	5	64		-2.7
J.Jeudy88%	5	13%	3	76	1	+4.8
J.Ford19%	3	8%	2	10		+1.7
C.Tillman64%	3	8%	1	23		+0.5
G.Larvadain42%	3	8%	2	18		-4.4
Q.Judkins46%	3	8%	1	58		+2.8
I.Bond48%	2	5%	0	0		-1.4
D.Njoku9%	1	3%	1	1	1	+1.2
B.Whiteheart42%	1	3%	0	0		-0.6

Defense D.Bush 1 INT, M.Garrett 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 1/1 FG (long 38)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Red zone touchdowns

Titans score a touchdown on 59% of red zone trips (14th). Browns allow 63% (22nd).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Titans send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Passing lanes are closed

Titans gain -0.22 EPA per dropback (31st). Browns allow -0.13 (3rd).

Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Titans create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (26th). Browns give them up at 9% (13th).

The series · Titans and Browns since 1999, and this season's records19 meetings

The Titans lead the series 11–8 since 1999. Oct 25, 2026, at Nissan Stadium: the Browns won 27–24. Cam Ward started at quarterback for the Titans and Deshaun Watson for the Browns; Robert Saleh and Todd Monken coached.

Titans at home4–5the Titans' record

In Cleveland7–3the Titans' record

Most pointsTitans 43 · Browns 412019 · 2001

Biggest winTitans by 30 · Browns by 242019 · 2023

The last 5

2026 · Wk 7	CLE 27 at TEN 24
2025 · Wk 14	TEN 31 at CLE 29
2023 · Wk 3	TEN 3 at CLE 27
2020 · Wk 13	CLE 41 at TEN 35
2019 · Wk 1	TEN 43 at CLE 13

2025 records

	Titans	Browns
Overall	3–14	5–12
Division	0–6	2–4
Conference	2–10	4–8
Other conference	1–4	1–4
Home	1–8	3–6
Away	2–6	2–6
Last 5	WLWLL	LLLWW
Streak	Lost 2	Won 2
Points a game	16.7 – 28.1	16.4 – 22.3

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Titans' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · TEN offense against CLE defense

Stat	TEN off	CLE def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.16#30	-0.09#4	+0.01
Success rate	37%#31	40%#4	44%
Yards per play	4.4#30	4.9#5	5.4
Explosive play rate	8%#26	9%#13	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.22#31	-0.13#3	+0.01
Sack rate	9%#26	10%#3	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.09#26	-0.07#15	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.1#19	4.2#17	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	33%#32	37%#8	40%
Red zone TD rate	59%#14	63%#22	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	107#27	110#1	140
TE yards per game	56#13	52#16	53
TE targets per game	8.2#8	7.1#14	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	28#19	27#8	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Titans: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.206% of throws

+0.344% of throws

+0.228% of throws

Short

0.0032% of throws

+0.0816% of throws

-0.2335% of throws

Browns: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.0837 throws

+0.5016 throws

+0.2633 throws