2025
Week 14 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 45–17 and were favored the whole way, never below 66%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:17, 7 points for the Cardinals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:17ARIJ.Brissett pass short middle to T.McBride to LA 37 for 27 yards (B.Young) [J.Wallace].18% → 25%
- 2Q1 7:43LAH.Mevis 26 yard field goal is GOOD24% → 31%
- 3Q1 9:55LAK.Williams right tackle to ARI 32 for 18 yards (B.Baker; K.Crawford).68% → 74%
- 4Q1 3:37LAM.Stafford pass deep right to P.Nacua to ARI 23 for 32 yards (G.Williams).75% → 81%
- 5Q1 12:10ARIJ.Brissett pass deep right to M.Wilson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.29% → 34%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Stafford led the Rams at +15.4 EPA (22 of 31 for 281). M.Wilson led the Cardinals at +6.1 EPA (11 catches for 142).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford83% | 22/31 | 281 | 3 | +15.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams51% | 13 | 36% | 84 | 1 | +5.6 |
| B.Corum31% | 12 | 33% | 128 | 2 | +8.4 |
| R.Rivers17% | 8 | 22% | 41 | -1.4 | |
| J.Garoppolo17% | 3 | 8% | -4 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua44% | 11 | 35% | 7 | 167 | 2 | +11.1 |
| D.Adams43% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 29 | +0.2 | |
| C.Parkinson69% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +2.6 |
| K.Williams51% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| D.Allen71% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 21 | +1.6 | |
| X.Smith30% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.1 | |
| B.Corum31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | |
| J.Whittington17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 | |
| K.Mumpfield46% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 | |
| T.Ferguson64% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense N.Landman 1 INT, K.Curl 1 sack, B.Young 1 sack, K.Turner 1 sack · Kicking H.Mevis 1/1 FG (long 26)
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 25/44 | 271 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Knight47% | 7 | 50% | 16 | -1.1 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 4 | 29% | 22 | +0.9 | |
| M.Carter53% | 3 | 21% | 13 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Wilson79% | 16 | 36% | 11 | 142 | 2 | +6.1 |
| T.McBride97% | 9 | 20% | 5 | 58 | -0.3 | |
| B.Knight47% | 6 | 14% | 3 | 18 | -0.7 | |
| M.Carter53% | 4 | 9% | 2 | 18 | -2.9 | |
| A.Baccellia79% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -1.8 | |
| J.Brooks40% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 32 | +1.2 | |
| T.Sherfield15% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| J.Deguara11% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| E.Higgins66% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking C.Ryland 1/2 FG (long 38)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Cardinals give up 69 yards a game to tight ends (30th), against a league average of 53. Rams' tight ends produce 69 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Rams send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Cardinals give up 36 yards a game to running backs (24th), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 21 (30th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (6th). Cardinals give them up at 11% (24th).
The Rams lead the series 29–21 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). Oct 18, 2026, at SoFi Stadium: the Cardinals won 18–16. Matthew Stafford started at quarterback for the Rams and Jacoby Brissett for the Cardinals; Sean McVay and Jonathan Gannon coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | ARI 18 at LA 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | ARI 20 at LA 37 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | LA 45 at ARI 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | ARI 9 at LA 13 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | LA 10 at ARI 41 |
2025 records
| Rams | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 3–14 |
| Division | 4–2 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 0–5 |
| Home | 7–1 | 1–7 |
| Away | 5–4 | 2–7 |
| Last 5 | WWLLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 9 |
| Points a game | 30.5 – 20.4 | 20.9 – 28.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 36#24 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.