2025
Week 14 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 20–10; their low point was 33% at Q1 14:55. The Chiefs had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 10:22: P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to R.Rice (D.Stingley) [W.Anderson] (46% → 58%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:22HOUP.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to R.Rice (D.Stingley) [W.Anderson].turning point46% → 58%
- 2Q4 13:35HOUC.Stroud pass deep left to J.Higgins to HOU 26 for 17 yards (C.Conner).36% → 47%
- 3Q2 8:42HOUP.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by J.Pitre at HOU 45. J.Pitre to HOU 43 for -2 yards (J.Smith-Schuster).66% → 76%
- 4Q2 12:09HOUC.Stroud pass deep middle to N.Collins pushed ob at KC 7 for 53 yards (J.Watson).55% → 63%
- 5Q1 7:38HOUP.Mahomes pass short middle to P.Mahomes to KC 31 for -10 yards (W.Anderson).36% → 44%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
N.Collins led the Texans at +3.7 EPA (4 catches for 121). X.Worthy led the Chiefs at +3.0 EPA (3 catches for 55).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 15/31 | 203 | 1 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks87% | 26 | 84% | 68 | -5.3 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 2 | 6% | 5 | +0.3 | |
| D.Ogunbowale1% | 1 | 3% | 5 | 1 | +1.4 |
| N.Chubb11% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| J.Noel36% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins81% | 8 | 30% | 4 | 121 | +3.7 | |
| J.Higgins60% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 34 | +3.0 | |
| D.Schultz74% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 22 | +0.0 | |
| C.Kirk36% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 6 | -1.9 | |
| W.Marks87% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 8 | 1 | +2.7 |
| X.Hutchinson40% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| J.Noel36% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 12 | +0.6 |
Defense A.Al-Shaair 1 INT, J.Pitre 1 INT, K.Lassiter 1 INT, T.Togiai 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG (long 35)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 14/33 | 160 | 3 | 2 | -22.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt59% | 12 | 41% | 30 | 1 | +1.7 |
| I.Pacheco33% | 9 | 31% | 30 | -2.4 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 7 | 24% | 59 | +4.2 | |
| B.Smith8% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice78% | 8 | 28% | 4 | 34 | -8.7 | |
| T.Kelce91% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 8 | -5.2 | |
| X.Worthy77% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 55 | +3.0 | |
| N.Gray45% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 14 | -2.2 | |
| T.Thornton30% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 19 | +1.1 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster38% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -1.3 | |
| M.Brown34% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 35 | +0.8 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -10 | -2.5 | |
| K.Hunt59% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
Defense C.Jones 1 sack, G.Karlaftis 1 sack, J.Tillery 0.5 sacks, A.Gillotte 0.5 sacks · Kicking H.Butker 1/2 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Texans take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (9th). Chiefs get home on 6% (19th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Texans send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Texans average 3.8 yards per carry (28th). Chiefs allow 3.9 (7th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Texans average -0.03 EPA per play (24th). Chiefs allow -0.02 (12th). League average is +0.01.
The Chiefs lead the series 11–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2003). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | HOU 20 at KC 10 |
| 2024 · Wk 20 · playoffs | HOU 14 at KC 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | HOU 19 at KC 27 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 · OT | KC 30 at HOU 24 |
| 2020 · Wk 1 | HOU 20 at KC 34 |
2025 records
| Texans | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 6–11 |
| Division | 5–1 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 7–2 | 5–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 9 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 23.8 – 17.4 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.