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2025 season · Oct 23 to Oct 27 · 13 games · byes: ARI, DET, JAX, LA, LV, SEA

Week 8 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

13 of 13 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Dolphins beat the Falcons 34–10 as a 23% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Jets were down to 2% against the Bengals and won 39–38.
  • WildestPackers at Steelers: the lead changed hands 3 times; the Packers won 35–25, and the biggest swing was 14 points at Q3 0:35.
  • Best offenseThe Eagles: +0.46 EPA a play against the Giants, +0.46 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Buccaneers held the Saints to −0.47 EPA a play, −0.52 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerC.J. Stroud (HOU QB): +23.5 EPA, 30/39, 318 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7-30 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 8
Games final13 of 13
Overtime0
Comebacks3
Upsets2
Points648
Biggest swing28 pts
MINVikings10LACChargers37
Biggest swing 7 pts · Q1 10:53
Led all the way
MIADolphins34ATLFalcons10
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q3 10:31
Upset · 23% at kickoffComeback from 15%
CHIBears16BALRavens30
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q4 9:08
BUFBills40CARPanthers9
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 3:51
Led all the way
NYJJets39CINBengals38
Biggest swing 28 pts · Q4 0:32
Upset · 30% at kickoffComeback from 2%
SF49ers15HOUTexans26
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 11:01
Led all the way
CLEBrowns13NEPatriots32
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q2 13:12
NYGGiants20PHIEagles38
Biggest swing 17 pts · Q1 14:53
Led all the way
TBBuccaneers23NOSaints3
Biggest swing 17 pts · Q2 6:48
Led all the way
DALCowboys24DENBroncos44
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q1 8:21
TENTitans14INDColts38
Biggest swing 5 pts · Q1 11:59
Led all the way
GBPackers35PITSteelers25
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q3 0:35
Comeback from 24%
WASCommanders7KCChiefs28
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q1 9:49
Led all the way

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1NYJJets · Q4 0:32 · NYJ at CINJ.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to A.Iosivas (J.Brownlee).+2864% → 92%
  2. 2PHIEagles · Q1 14:53 · NYG at PHIF.S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+1772% → 89%
  3. 3TBBuccaneers · Q2 6:48 · TB at NOS.Rattler pass short right intended for F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by A.Nelson at NO 3. A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-K.Banks, Illegal…+1765% → 82%
  4. 4GBPackers · Q3 0:35 · GB at PITJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.+1546% → 61%
  5. 5GBPackers · Q3 12:40 · GB at PITJ.Love pass deep right to T.Kraft to PIT 26 for 59 yards (J.Thornhill; D.Elliott) [P.Queen]. PIT-D.Elliott was injured during the play.+1424% → 38%
  6. 6KCChiefs · Q1 9:49 · WAS at KCM.Mariota pass short left intended for D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by M.Danna at KC 22. M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (D.Samuel).+1471% → 85%
  7. 7BALRavens · Q4 9:08 · CHI at BALC.Williams pass short right intended for R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by N.Wiggins at CHI 18. N.Wiggins ran ob at CHI 9 for 9 yards (C.Loveland).+1275% → 87%
  8. 8DENBroncos · Q1 8:21 · DAL at DENR.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+1254% → 66%
  9. 9BALRavens · Q2 0:26 · CHI at BALC.Williams pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CHI-C.Williams, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.+1264% → 76%
  10. 10MIADolphins · Q3 10:31 · MIA at ATLB.Robinson left end to MIA 16 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-T.Dodson at MIA 10. T.Dodson to MIA 16 for 6 yards (J.Matthews; M.Bergeron).…+1269% → 81%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1INDColts · Q3 11:22 · vs TEN · Jonathan TaylorJ.Taylor left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.9EPA
  2. 2PHIEagles · Q1 14:53 · vs NYG · Saquon BarkleyF.S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.6EPA
  3. 3GBPackers · Q3 12:40 · vs PIT · Tucker KraftJ.Love pass deep right to T.Kraft to PIT 26 for 59 yards [P.Queen]. PIT-D.Elliott was injured during the play.+5.3EPA
  4. 4BUFBills · Q2 7:35 · vs CAR · James CookJ.Cook left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.2EPA
  5. 5BUFBills · Q3 12:28 · vs CAR · Khalil ShakirJ.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.1EPA
  6. 6INDColts · Q3 6:55 · vs TEN · Alec PierceD.Jones pass deep right to A.Pierce to TEN 12 for 50 yards.+4.9EPA
  7. 7MIADolphins · Q3 4:26 · vs ATL · Jaylen WaddleT.Tagovailoa pass short middle to J.Waddle for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.8EPA
  8. 8PHIEagles · Q4 6:07 · vs NYG · Jahan DotsonJ.Hurts pass deep left to J.Dotson for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.8EPA
  9. 9TENTitans · Q2 12:05 · vs IND · Tyjae SpearsT.Spears right end pushed ob at IND 1 for 41 yards.+4.5EPA
  10. 10DALCowboys · Q4 4:50 · vs DEN · Jalen TolbertJ.Milton pass deep right to J.Tolbert for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.2EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1PHIEaglesvs NYG · W 38–20+0.46+0.46 vs usual
2INDColtsvs TEN · W 38–14+0.38+0.33 vs usual
3DENBroncosvs DAL · W 44–24+0.37+0.35 vs usual
4BUFBillsat CAR · W 40–9+0.34+0.22 vs usual
5NYJJetsat CIN · W 39–38+0.34+0.50 vs usual
6GBPackersat PIT · W 35–25+0.33+0.22 vs usual
7CINBengalsvs NYJ · L 38–39+0.27+0.29 vs usual
8KCChiefsvs WAS · W 28–7+0.25+0.23 vs usual
9HOUTexansvs SF · W 26–15+0.24+0.28 vs usual
10BALRavensvs CHI · W 30–16+0.22+0.19 vs usual
11LACChargersvs MIN · W 37–10+0.20+0.26 vs usual
12MIADolphinsat ATL · W 34–10+0.14+0.17 vs usual
13NYGGiantsat PHI · L 20–38+0.09+0.08 vs usual
14NEPatriotsvs CLE · W 32–13+0.07−0.02 vs usual
15DALCowboysat DEN · L 24–44+0.06−0.04 vs usual
16CHIBearsat BAL · L 16–30+0.02−0.05 vs usual
17SF49ersat HOU · L 15–26−0.04−0.11 vs usual
18TENTitansat IND · L 14–38−0.09+0.08 vs usual
19TBBuccaneersat NO · W 23–3−0.15−0.15 vs usual
20PITSteelersvs GB · L 25–35−0.16−0.16 vs usual
21WASCommandersat KC · L 7–28−0.18−0.20 vs usual
22ATLFalconsvs MIA · L 10–34−0.34−0.34 vs usual
23CARPanthersvs BUF · L 9–40−0.35−0.32 vs usual
24CLEBrownsat NE · L 13–32−0.35−0.17 vs usual
25MINVikingsat LAC · L 10–37−0.42−0.32 vs usual
26NOSaintsvs TB · L 3–23−0.47−0.41 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 17C.J. StroudHOU vs SF · 30/39, 318 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7-30 rush+23.5
  2. 210Jordan LoveGB vs PIT · 29/37, 360 yds, 3 TD+20.6
  3. 310Justin HerbertLAC vs MIN · 18/25, 227 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 7-62 rush+15.4
  4. 47Justin FieldsNYJ vs CIN · 21/32, 244 yds, 1 TD · 11-31 rush+14.3
  5. 510Bo NixDEN vs DAL · 19/29, 247 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT+14.1
  6. 615Patrick MahomesKC vs WAS · 25/34, 299 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT · 4-30 rush+13.9
  7. 717Daniel JonesIND vs TEN · 21/29, 272 yds, 3 TD+13.6
  8. 81Jalen HurtsPHI vs NYG · 15/20, 179 yds, 4 TD · 4-22 rush+12.7
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 14James CookBUF vs CAR · 19 car, 216 yds, 2 TD+15.4
  2. 228Jonathan TaylorIND vs TEN · 12 car, 153 yds, 2 TD · 2-21 rec+12.5
  3. 331Ollie Gordon IIMIA vs ATL · 10 car, 46 yds · 1-20 rec+8.6
  4. 426Saquon BarkleyPHI vs NYG · 14 car, 150 yds, 1 TD · 4-24 rec+8.1
  5. 52Tyjae SpearsTEN vs IND · 9 car, 59 yds, 1 TD · 3-23 rec+7.4
  6. 629Kareem HuntKC vs WAS · 9 car, 40 yds, 1 TD · 1-2 rec+7.2
  7. 734Samaje PerineCIN vs NYJ · 9 car, 94 yds, 1 TD · 1-6 rec+6.9
  8. 837Tank BigsbyPHI vs NYG · 9 car, 104 yds+6.9
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 128Jonathan TaylorIND vs TEN · RB35.4
  2. 24James CookBUF vs CAR · RB33.6
  3. 320Breece HallNYJ vs CIN · RB30.9
  4. 426Saquon BarkleyPHI vs NYG · RB29.4
  5. 510Jordan LoveGB vs PIT · QB28.3
  6. 685Tucker KraftGB vs PIT · TE26.3
  7. 710Drake MayeNE vs CLE · QB26.3
  8. 81Jalen HurtsPHI vs NYG · QB25.4
  9. 910Justin HerbertLAC vs MIN · QB25.3
  10. 1016Joe FlaccoCIN vs NYJ · QB24.3
  11. 111Tua TagovailoaMIA vs ATL · QB24.2
  12. 1210Bo NixDEN vs DAL · QB23.8
  13. 1317Josh AllenBUF vs CAR · QB23.2
  14. 1417Daniel JonesIND vs TEN · QB23.2
  15. 1512RJ HarveyDEN vs DAL · RB23.1
  16. 1615Patrick MahomesKC vs WAS · QB23.0
  1. 128Jonathan TaylorIND vs TEN · RB36.4
  2. 24James CookBUF vs CAR · RB33.6
  3. 320Breece HallNYJ vs CIN · RB31.9
  4. 426Saquon BarkleyPHI vs NYG · RB31.4
  5. 585Tucker KraftGB vs PIT · TE29.8
  6. 610Jordan LoveGB vs PIT · QB28.3
  7. 710Drake MayeNE vs CLE · QB26.3
  8. 81Jalen HurtsPHI vs NYG · QB25.4
  9. 910Justin HerbertLAC vs MIN · QB25.3
  10. 1016Joe FlaccoCIN vs NYJ · QB24.3
  11. 111Tua TagovailoaMIA vs ATL · QB24.2
  12. 1230Chase BrownCIN vs NYJ · RB24.0
  13. 1311Troy FranklinDEN vs DAL · WR23.9
  14. 1410Bo NixDEN vs DAL · QB23.8
  15. 1512RJ HarveyDEN vs DAL · RB23.6
  16. 1617Josh AllenBUF vs CAR · QB23.2
  1. 128Jonathan TaylorIND vs TEN · RB37.4
  2. 24James CookBUF vs CAR · RB33.6
  3. 326Saquon BarkleyPHI vs NYG · RB33.4
  4. 485Tucker KraftGB vs PIT · TE33.3
  5. 520Breece HallNYJ vs CIN · RB32.9
  6. 610Jordan LoveGB vs PIT · QB28.3
  7. 711Troy FranklinDEN vs DAL · WR26.9
  8. 810Drake MayeNE vs CLE · QB26.3
  9. 930Chase BrownCIN vs NYJ · RB25.5
  10. 104Rashee RiceKC vs WAS · WR25.5
  11. 111Jalen HurtsPHI vs NYG · QB25.4
  12. 1210Justin HerbertLAC vs MIN · QB25.3
  13. 1316Joe FlaccoCIN vs NYJ · QB24.3
  14. 141Tua TagovailoaMIA vs ATL · QB24.2
  15. 1512RJ HarveyDEN vs DAL · RB24.1
  16. 1610Bo NixDEN vs DAL · QB23.8
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 111Troy FranklinDEN vs DAL · 6/8, 89 yds, 2 TD+8.6
  2. 217Jaylen WaddleMIA vs ATL · 5/6, 99 yds, 1 TD+8.0
  3. 33George PickensDAL vs DEN · 7/9, 78 yds+7.9
  4. 413Keenan AllenLAC vs MIN · 4/5, 44 yds+7.3
  5. 511Michael PittmanIND vs TEN · 8/9, 95 yds, 1 TD+7.2
  6. 64Rashee RiceKC vs WAS · 9/9, 93 yds, 1 TD+7.2
  7. 79Christian WatsonGB vs PIT · 4/4, 85 yds+6.5
  8. 810Khalil ShakirBUF vs CAR · 6/7, 88 yds, 1 TD+6.4
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 185Tucker KraftGB vs PIT · 7/9, 143 yds, 2 TD+11.6
  2. 286Oronde Gadsden IILAC vs MIN · 5/5, 77 yds, 1 TD+7.0
  3. 388Dallas GoedertPHI vs NYG · 3/3, 28 yds, 2 TD+5.3
  4. 489Jeremy RuckertNYJ vs CIN · 1/1, 24 yds+3.6
  5. 585Chig OkonkwoTEN vs IND · 4/5, 53 yds+3.5
  6. 61Evan EngramDEN vs DAL · 4/4, 36 yds+3.4
  7. 785Mason TaylorNYJ vs CIN · 5/8, 34 yds, 1 TD+3.0
  8. 884Tyler WarrenIND vs TEN · 4/5, 53 yds+2.8

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 8 · against his own season336 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 8: Andy Dalton (Panthers) took 100% of the snaps, up 83 points on his season; Casey Washington (Falcons) fell to 8% from 61.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
14Andy DaltonCAR · QB+83 pts17% → 100%87David SillsATL · WR+64 pts26% → 90%4KhaDarel HodgeATL · WR+58 pts8% → 66%17Chimere DikeTEN · WR+46 pts43% → 89%18Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WR+42 pts0% → 42%
▼ Fallers
82Casey WashingtonATL · WR−53 pts61% → 8%2Spencer RattlerNO · QB−52 pts98% → 46%1Jalen TolbertDAL · WR−52 pts71% → 19%88Jake TongesSF · TE−50 pts60% → 10%80Tyquan ThorntonKC · WR−45 pts52% → 7%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
4KhaDarel HodgeATL · WR+26 pts1% → 27%1Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WR+26 pts32% → 58%13Mack HollinsNE · WR+23 pts7% → 30%6DeVonta SmithPHI · WR+20 pts25% → 45%15Ladd McConkeyLAC · WR+20 pts21% → 42%
▼ Fallers
1Quentin JohnstonLAC · WR−21 pts21% → 0%87Jake FergusonDAL · TE−19 pts22% → 3%17Lil'Jordan HumphreyNYG · WR−18 pts18% → 0%5Marquise BrownKC · WR−16 pts20% → 3%3Jerry JeudyCLE · WR−14 pts21% → 6%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
7C.J. StroudHOU · QB+19.2 EPA0.0 → +19.27Justin FieldsNYJ · QB+18.4 EPA-3.3 → +15.010Jordan LoveGB · QB+13.9 EPA+8.4 → +22.44James CookBUF · RB+13.7 EPA+1.7 → +15.410Bo NixDEN · QB+11.2 EPA+2.9 → +14.1
▼ Fallers
11Carson WentzMIN · QB−17.5 EPA+4.8 → -12.78Dillon GabrielCLE · QB−17.2 EPA-2.6 → -19.814Andy DaltonCAR · QB−15.3 EPA+2.4 → -12.94Dak PrescottDAL · QB−14.3 EPA+9.9 → -4.41Deebo Samuel Sr.WAS · WR−11.1 EPA+2.8 → -8.3
New faces18Kirk CousinsATL · QB · first start-level week, 100% of the snaps4KhaDarel HodgeATL · WR · first start-level week, 66% of the snaps9Christian WatsonGB · WR · debut, 56% of the snaps89Jared WayneHOU · WR · debut, 44% of the snaps85Greg DulcichMIA · TE · debut, 28% of the snaps19Cedrick Wilson Jr.MIA · WR · debut, 32% of the snaps6Tyler ShoughNO · QB · first start-level week, 54% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.