2025
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Bears offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 30–16; their low point was 37% at Q1 0:52. The game turned for good at Q2 9:24: T.Huntley left end pushed ob at CHI 12 for 2 yards (K.Byard) (47% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 9:08, 12 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:08BALC.Williams pass short right intended for R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by N.Wiggins at CHI 18. N.Wiggins ran ob at CHI 9 for 9 yards (C.Loveland).75% → 87%
- 2Q2 0:26BALC.Williams pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CHI-C.Williams, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.65% → 76%
- 3Q3 14:55BALT.Huntley pass deep right to R.Bateman to CHI 30 for 36 yards (K.Byard).69% → 76%
- 4Q3 0:57CHIC.Williams pass deep right to R.Odunze to BAL 34 for 27 yards (M.Starks).13% → 20%
- 5Q2 6:54BALC.Williams pass incomplete short right [K.Hamilton]. PENALTY on CHI-C.Williams, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at BAL 46.61% → 67%
- ★Q2 9:24BALT.Huntley left end pushed ob at CHI 12 for 2 yards (K.Byard).turning point47% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Odunze led the Bears at +5.8 EPA (7 catches for 114). T.Huntley led the Ravens at +8.6 EPA (17 of 22 for 186).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 25/38 | 285 | 1 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift49% | 11 | 48% | 45 | 1 | +2.3 |
| K.Monangai46% | 7 | 30% | 24 | -1.4 | |
| C.Williams100% | 3 | 13% | 24 | +0.0 | |
| D.Moore84% | 2 | 9% | 3 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze94% | 10 | 29% | 7 | 114 | +5.8 | |
| D.Moore84% | 7 | 20% | 4 | 73 | +1.4 | |
| O.Zaccheaus60% | 7 | 20% | 7 | 33 | -1.4 | |
| C.Loveland81% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 38 | +1.6 | |
| D.Duvernay16% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 2 | -2.0 | |
| D.Swift49% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 26 | +2.2 | |
| L.III17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1 | -0.9 |
Defense M.Sweat 1 sack, G.Sr. 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 3/4 FG (long 47)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Huntley100% | 17/22 | 186 | 1 | 2 | +5.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry58% | 21 | 60% | 71 | 2 | +1.3 |
| T.Huntley100% | 8 | 23% | 53 | +3.2 | |
| K.Mitchell11% | 4 | 11% | 43 | +2.3 | |
| J.Hill31% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.3 | |
| Z.Flowers95% | 1 | 3% | 8 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers95% | 9 | 41% | 7 | 63 | +4.2 | |
| R.Bateman79% | 4 | 18% | 2 | 51 | +0.5 | |
| M.Andrews60% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 34 | +1.8 | |
| I.Likely58% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 8 | -1.4 | |
| D.Hopkins37% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 14 | +1.9 | |
| D.Henry58% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| T.Wallace8% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 6 | -0.3 | |
| C.Kolar40% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 10 | 1 | +2.4 |
Defense N.Wiggins 1 INT, M.Green 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 3/3 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Bears take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (2nd). Ravens get home on 5% (31st). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Bears score a touchdown on 58% of red zone trips (17th). Ravens allow 53% (5th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bears succeed on 45% of plays (11th) against a defense that allows 44% (17th).
The Ravens lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | CHI 16 at BAL 30 |
| 2021 · Wk 11 | BAL 16 at CHI 13 |
| 2017 · Wk 6 · OT | CHI 27 at BAL 24 |
| 2013 · Wk 11 · OT | BAL 20 at CHI 23 |
| 2009 · Wk 15 | CHI 7 at BAL 31 |
2025 records
| Bears | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 8–9 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–2 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | LWLWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.