2025
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 17 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jets won 39–38 from as low as 2% (Q4 8:41, down 38–24). The Bengals had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:42: S.Perine left guard to CIN 45 for 1 yard (W.McDonald; Q.Williams) (49% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:32, 28 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:32NYJJ.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to A.Iosivas (J.Brownlee).64% → 92%
- 2Q4 2:00NYJB.Hall pass short right to M.Taylor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.37% → 48%
- 3Q4 3:10CINM.I.Davis right guard to CIN 7 for -1 yards (T.Slaton, L.Wilson).61% → 70%
- 4Q1 8:20CINB.Hall right end to NYJ 35 for -2 yards (B.Carter).71% → 80%
- 5Q4 0:37NYJJ.Flacco pass incomplete short left to J.Chase.56% → 64%
- ★Q4 0:42NYJS.Perine left guard to CIN 45 for 1 yard (W.McDonald; Q.Williams).turning point49% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Fields led the Jets at +14.3 EPA (21 of 32 for 244). S.Perine led the Bengals at +6.9 EPA (9 carries for 94).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fields100% | 21/32 | 244 | 1 | +15.1 | ||
| B.Hall56% | 1/1 | 4 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall56% | 18 | 49% | 133 | 2 | +4.9 |
| J.Fields100% | 11 | 30% | 31 | -0.8 | |
| I.Davis46% | 7 | 19% | 65 | -0.3 | |
| I.Williams42% | 1 | 3% | 25 | +1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Taylor76% | 8 | 27% | 5 | 34 | 1 | +3.1 |
| T.Johnson78% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 64 | 1 | +6.0 |
| I.Davis46% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 44 | +4.0 | |
| I.Williams42% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 31 | +1.6 | |
| B.Hall56% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 14 | -0.8 | |
| A.Lazard | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -0.3 | |
| A.Beck11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| J.Ruckert51% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 24 | +3.7 | |
| A.Smith42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 23 | +1.4 |
Defense W.IV 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 3/3 FG (long 46)
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco100% | 21/34 | 223 | 2 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown54% | 12 | 52% | 73 | 1 | +2.3 |
| S.Perine42% | 9 | 39% | 94 | 1 | +6.8 |
| J.Flacco100% | 2 | 9% | 14 | 1 | +3.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase98% | 19 | 58% | 12 | 91 | +0.9 | |
| N.Fant47% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 41 | +2.6 | |
| C.Brown54% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +3.0 |
| A.Iosivas80% | 3 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -2.8 | |
| T.Hudson19% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 9 | -0.8 | |
| T.Higgins88% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 44 | 1 | +3.5 |
| S.Perine42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.1 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 26)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Bengals give up 43 yards a game to running backs (29th), against a league average of 32. Jets' running backs produce 35 (12th).
Deep left is open
Bengals are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.70 EPA per attempt. Jets send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bengals give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 140. Jets' wide receivers produce 92 (31st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jets succeed on 40% of plays (29th) against a defense that allows 48% (28th).
The Jets lead the series 8–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | NYJ 39 at CIN 38 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | CIN 27 at NYJ 12 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | CIN 31 at NYJ 34 |
| 2019 · Wk 13 | NYJ 6 at CIN 22 |
| 2016 · Wk 1 | CIN 23 at NYJ 22 |
2025 records
| Jets | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 6–11 |
| Division | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Home | 2–7 | 3–6 |
| Away | 1–7 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLWWL |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 17.6 – 29.6 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | +0.13#29 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 48%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 12%#30 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | +0.16#28 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | +0.06#31 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 5.2#31 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 44%#26 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 65%#25 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 116#3 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 85#32 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 9.7#32 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 43#29 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.