2025
Week 8 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 18 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 37–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 55%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 10:53, 7 points for the Chargers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:53LACJ.Herbert pass short middle to K.Allen to LAC 31 for 17 yards (H.Smith).55% → 63%
- 2Q1 14:03MINC.Wentz pass deep left to J.Jefferson to MIN 32 for 16 yards (B.St-Juste) [D.Henley].38% → 45%
- 3Q1 5:43LACJ.Herbert pass short middle to L.McConkey to MIN 17 for 15 yards (B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-D.Turner, Roughing the Passer, 9 yards, enforced at…68% → 74%
- 4Q1 4:05LACJ.Herbert pass short middle to O.Gadsden for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.Greenard]. PENALTY on LAC-O.Gadsden, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards,…70% → 76%
- 5Q2 6:10MINC.Dicker 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left10% → 15%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Addison led the Vikings at +1.8 EPA (3 catches for 26). J.Herbert led the Chargers at +15.4 EPA (18 of 25 for 227).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Wentz88% | 15/27 | 144 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12.7 |
| M.Brosmer12% | 3/4 | 13 | 0.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones53% | 5 | 45% | 15 | -2.3 | |
| J.Mason35% | 4 | 36% | 3 | -2.7 | |
| Z.Scott12% | 2 | 18% | 16 | -2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson88% | 11 | 37% | 7 | 74 | -2.4 | |
| A.Jones53% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 15 | -0.1 | |
| J.Addison86% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 26 | 1 | +1.8 |
| T.Hockenson82% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 26 | +0.5 | |
| A.Thielen24% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.1 | |
| Z.Scott12% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| B.Yurosek31% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -0.7 | |
| J.Nailor69% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| J.Mason35% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.7 |
Defense J.Metellus 1 INT, J.Allen 1 sack, J.Greenard 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 1/2 FG (long 54)
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 18/25 | 227 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +11.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Vidal74% | 23 | 53% | 117 | 1 | +1.1 |
| J.Patterson21% | 11 | 26% | 30 | -0.7 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 7 | 16% | 62 | +3.8 | |
| N.Hines5% | 2 | 5% | -2 | -1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.McConkey58% | 10 | 42% | 6 | 88 | 1 | -0.8 |
| K.Allen25% | 5 | 21% | 4 | 44 | +7.4 | |
| O.II77% | 5 | 21% | 5 | 77 | 1 | +7.0 |
| K.Vidal74% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 10 | +0.3 | |
| T.Harris59% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 8 | 1 | +1.6 |
Defense J.Eboigbe 2 sacks, R.Mickens 1 INT, K.Mack 1 sack, O.Oweh 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 3/4 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Vikings average 4.4 yards per carry (11th). Chargers allow 4.1 (14th).
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.49 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Chargers
Vikings convert 33% of third downs (31st). Chargers allow 35% (3rd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Vikings create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (13th). Chargers give them up at 9% (17th).
The Vikings lead the series 5–4 since 1999. The Chargers have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | MIN 10 at LAC 37 |
| 2023 · Wk 3 | LAC 28 at MIN 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 10 | MIN 27 at LAC 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 15 | MIN 39 at LAC 10 |
| 2015 · Wk 3 | LAC 14 at MIN 31 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 11–6 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWLL |
| Streak | Won 5 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 21.6 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | -0.08#7 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 41%#6 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 5.2#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 9%#17 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | -0.09#10 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 9%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | -0.12#3 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 4.1#14 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 35%#3 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 44%#1 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 127#8 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 43#6 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 5.7#2 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 29#15 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.