2025
Week 8 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Packers offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 35–25 from as low as 24% (Q3 13:23, down 16–7). The game turned for good at Q3 0:35: J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined (46% → 61%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:35GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.turning point46% → 61%
- 2Q3 12:40GBJ.Love pass deep right to T.Kraft to PIT 26 for 59 yards (J.Thornhill; D.Elliott) [P.Queen]. PIT-D.Elliott was injured during the play.24% → 38%
- 3Q1 11:52PITA.Rodgers pass deep right to R.Wilson ran ob at GB 28 for 45 yards.43% → 54%
- 4Q3 14:12PITC.Waitman punts 51 yards to GB 20 R.Doubs to GB 23 for 3 yards (C.Kuntz). PENALTY on GB-J.Bullard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.65% → 73%
- 5Q3 10:18GBJ.Love pass short right to T.Kraft pushed ob at PIT 10 for 7 yards (J.Porter).32% → 41%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +20.6 EPA (29 of 37 for 360). R.Wilson led the Steelers at +5.2 EPA (4 catches for 74).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 29/37 | 360 | 3 | +22.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs53% | 13 | 50% | 33 | 1 | -2.3 |
| E.Wilson42% | 11 | 42% | 61 | +1.3 | |
| J.Love100% | 1 | 4% | -1 | -1.8 | |
| S.Williams19% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kraft92% | 9 | 26% | 7 | 143 | 2 | +11.6 |
| R.Doubs80% | 6 | 17% | 3 | 44 | +2.2 | |
| C.Watson56% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 85 | +6.5 | |
| E.Wilson42% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 26 | +0.6 | |
| J.Jacobs53% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 12 | +0.5 | |
| M.Heath33% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 29 | +2.2 | |
| M.Golden66% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| J.FitzPatrick34% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 | |
| L.Musgrave19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.3 | |
| S.Williams19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | 1 | +2.3 |
Defense R.Gary 2 sacks, M.Parsons 1 sack · Kicking B.McManus 2/4 FG (long 28)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 24/36 | 219 | 2 | 3 | -4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren62% | 13 | 72% | 62 | -2.2 | |
| K.Gainwell38% | 5 | 28% | 31 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf94% | 7 | 22% | 5 | 55 | 1 | +3.6 |
| C.III78% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 28 | -0.7 | |
| R.Wilson46% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 74 | 1 | +5.2 |
| P.Freiermuth43% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 13 | -1.8 | |
| J.Smith60% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 17 | -2.0 | |
| J.Warren62% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 11 | -0.7 | |
| K.Gainwell38% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 4 | -4.9 | |
| B.Skowronek17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +0.7 | |
| S.Anderson | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | 0.0 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking C.Boswell 4/4 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Packers
Packers convert 48% of third downs (2nd). Steelers allow 44% (28th).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Packers score a touchdown on 60% of red zone trips (12th). Steelers allow 54% (7th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Packers gain 5.7 yards per play (9th). Steelers give up 5.6 (19th), with the league at 5.4.
The Steelers lead the series 5–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | GB 35 at PIT 25 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | GB 19 at PIT 23 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | PIT 17 at GB 27 |
| 2017 · Wk 12 | GB 28 at PIT 31 |
| 2013 · Wk 16 | PIT 38 at GB 31 |
2025 records
| Packers | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 10–7 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.