2025
Week 8 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Steelers, 18 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 35–25 from as low as 24% (Q3 13:23, down 16–7). The game turned for good at Q3 0:35: J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined (46% → 61%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:35GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.turning point46% → 61%
- 2Q3 12:40GBJ.Love pass deep right to T.Kraft to PIT 26 for 59 yards (J.Thornhill; D.Elliott) [P.Queen]. PIT-D.Elliott was injured during the play.24% → 38%
- 3Q1 11:52PITA.Rodgers pass deep right to R.Wilson ran ob at GB 28 for 45 yards.43% → 54%
- 4Q3 14:12PITC.Waitman punts 51 yards to GB 20 R.Doubs to GB 23 for 3 yards (C.Kuntz). PENALTY on GB-J.Bullard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.65% → 73%
- 5Q3 10:18GBJ.Love pass short right to T.Kraft pushed ob at PIT 10 for 7 yards (J.Porter).32% → 41%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +20.6 EPA (29 of 37 for 360). R.Wilson led the Steelers at +5.2 EPA (4 catches for 74).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 29/37 | 360 | 3 | +22.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs53% | 13 | 50% | 33 | 1 | -2.3 |
| E.Wilson42% | 11 | 42% | 61 | +1.3 | |
| J.Love100% | 1 | 4% | -1 | -1.8 | |
| S.Williams19% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kraft92% | 9 | 26% | 7 | 143 | 2 | +11.6 |
| R.Doubs80% | 6 | 17% | 3 | 44 | +2.2 | |
| C.Watson56% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 85 | +6.5 | |
| E.Wilson42% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 26 | +0.6 | |
| J.Jacobs53% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 12 | +0.5 | |
| M.Heath33% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 29 | +2.2 | |
| M.Golden66% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| J.FitzPatrick34% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 | |
| L.Musgrave19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.3 | |
| S.Williams19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | 1 | +2.3 |
Defense R.Gary 2 sacks, M.Parsons 1 sack · Kicking B.McManus 2/4 FG (long 28)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 24/36 | 219 | 2 | 3 | -4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren62% | 13 | 72% | 62 | -2.2 | |
| K.Gainwell38% | 5 | 28% | 31 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf94% | 7 | 22% | 5 | 55 | 1 | +3.6 |
| C.III78% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 28 | -0.7 | |
| R.Wilson46% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 74 | 1 | +5.2 |
| P.Freiermuth43% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 13 | -1.8 | |
| J.Smith60% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 17 | -2.0 | |
| J.Warren62% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 11 | -0.7 | |
| K.Gainwell38% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 4 | -4.9 | |
| B.Skowronek17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +0.7 | |
| S.Anderson | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | 0.0 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking C.Boswell 4/4 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Packers give up 8.2 targets a game to tight ends (24th), against a league average of 7.3. Steelers' tight ends produce 8.9 (4th).
Deep right is open
Packers are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.52 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Packers give up 136 yards a game to wide receivers (15th), against a league average of 140. Steelers' wide receivers produce 101 (29th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Steelers succeed on 43% of plays (19th) against a defense that allows 44% (16th).
The Steelers lead the series 5–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | GB 35 at PIT 25 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | GB 19 at PIT 23 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | PIT 17 at GB 27 |
| 2017 · Wk 12 | GB 28 at PIT 31 |
| 2013 · Wk 16 | PIT 38 at GB 31 |
2025 records
| Packers | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 10–7 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | 0.00#18 | +0.04#22 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#19 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#21 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#23 | 8%#5 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#21 | +0.09#23 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 6%#26 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#7 | -0.05#17 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#12 | 4.1#13 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 42%#20 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 59%#16 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 101#29 | 136#15 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#7 | 50#12 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#4 | 8.2#24 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#3 | 29#12 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.