2025
Week 8 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Cowboys offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 44–24; their low point was 42% at Q1 11:16. The game turned for good at Q1 9:12: B.Nix pass incomplete short left to C.Sutton (D.Bland) [D.Fowler]. PENALTY on DAL-J.Houston, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 29 - No Play (47% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 8:21, 12 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:21DENR.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 66%
- 2Q1 13:44DALB.Nix pass short right intended for P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by T.Bridges at DAL 41. T.Bridges to DAL 48 for 7 yards (P.Bryant). Penalty on…36% → 45%
- 3Q1 9:07DENB.Nix pass short middle to T.Franklin to DAL 40 for 26 yards (A.Clark).50% → 58%
- 4Q1 11:47DALD.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb to DEN 3 for 29 yards (R.Moss) [Z.Allen].52% → 58%
- 5Q1 5:07DENJ.Dobbins right tackle to DAL 25 for 21 yards (A.Clark).73% → 79%
- ★Q1 9:12DENB.Nix pass incomplete short left to C.Sutton (D.Bland) [D.Fowler]. PENALTY on DAL-J.Houston, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 29 - No Play.turning point47% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Pickens led the Cowboys at +7.9 EPA (7 catches for 78). B.Nix led the Broncos at +14.1 EPA (19 of 29 for 247).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott88% | 19/31 | 188 | 2 | 2 | -4.4 | |
| J.III12% | 3/4 | 58 | 1 | +5.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams72% | 13 | 42% | 41 | 2 | +1.9 |
| J.Blue19% | 8 | 26% | 29 | -1.4 | |
| D.Prescott88% | 6 | 19% | 31 | +2.4 | |
| M.Davis5% | 2 | 6% | 3 | -0.7 | |
| C.Lamb72% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.3 | |
| H.Luepke18% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb72% | 10 | 29% | 7 | 74 | -4.8 | |
| G.Pickens80% | 9 | 26% | 7 | 78 | +7.9 | |
| K.Turpin41% | 5 | 14% | 1 | -2 | -4.7 | |
| L.Schoonmaker39% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 25 | +1.7 | |
| J.Williams72% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.2 | |
| J.Tolbert19% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 47 | 1 | +5.5 |
| R.Flournoy46% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 7 | -0.6 | |
| J.Ferguson59% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| B.Spann-Ford31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 |
Defense T.Bridges 1 INT · Kicking B.Aubrey 1/1 FG (long 24)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix94% | 19/29 | 247 | 4 | 1 | +14.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins52% | 15 | 54% | 111 | +3.2 | |
| R.Harvey27% | 7 | 25% | 46 | 2 | +2.7 |
| M.Jr.30% | 3 | 11% | 18 | +1.0 | |
| J.Stidham6% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| T.Badie17% | 1 | 4% | 6 | -0.5 | |
| B.Nix94% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Franklin63% | 8 | 30% | 6 | 89 | 2 | +8.6 |
| C.Sutton84% | 6 | 22% | 4 | 67 | +3.6 | |
| E.Engram43% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 36 | +3.4 | |
| P.Bryant56% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 40 | 1 | -1.6 |
| J.Dobbins52% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 10 | +0.2 | |
| N.Adkins25% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| M.Jr.30% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| R.Harvey27% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | 1 | +2.7 |
Defense D.Tillman 1 INT, J.Barron 1 INT, J.Franklin-Myers 1 sack, Z.Allen 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 1/1 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 7.3. Cowboys' tight ends produce 8.1 (10th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Broncos give up 21 yards a game to running backs (2nd), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Cowboys gain 6.1 yards per play (2nd). Broncos give up 4.5 (1st), with the league at 5.4.
The Broncos lead the series 7–0 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 7. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | DAL 24 at DEN 44 |
| 2021 · Wk 9 | DEN 30 at DAL 16 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | DAL 17 at DEN 42 |
| 2013 · Wk 5 | DEN 51 at DAL 48 |
| 2009 · Wk 4 | DAL 10 at DEN 17 |
2025 records
| Cowboys | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–9–1 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 4–7–1 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 4–3–1 | 8–1 |
| Away | 3–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | WWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 27.7 – 30.1 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.10#4 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#5 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#2 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.16#6 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#6 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#8 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#6 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#8 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 212#1 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#20 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.1#10 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 18#32 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.