2025
Week 8 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Broncos offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Broncos, 17 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 44–24; their low point was 42% at Q1 11:16. The game turned for good at Q1 9:12: B.Nix pass incomplete short left to C.Sutton (D.Bland) [D.Fowler]. PENALTY on DAL-J.Houston, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 29 - No Play (47% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 8:21, 12 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:21DENR.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 66%
- 2Q1 13:44DENB.Nix pass short right intended for P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by T.Bridges at DAL 41. T.Bridges to DAL 48 for 7 yards (P.Bryant). Penalty on…36% → 45%
- 3Q1 9:07DENB.Nix pass short middle to T.Franklin to DAL 40 for 26 yards (A.Clark).50% → 58%
- 4Q1 11:47DALD.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb to DEN 3 for 29 yards (R.Moss) [Z.Allen].52% → 58%
- 5Q1 5:07DENJ.Dobbins right tackle to DAL 25 for 21 yards (A.Clark).73% → 79%
- ★Q1 9:12DENB.Nix pass incomplete short left to C.Sutton (D.Bland) [D.Fowler]. PENALTY on DAL-J.Houston, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 29 - No Play.turning point47% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Pickens led the Cowboys at +7.9 EPA (7 catches for 78). B.Nix led the Broncos at +14.1 EPA (19 of 29 for 247).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott88% | 19/31 | 188 | 2 | 2 | -4.4 | |
| J.III12% | 3/4 | 58 | 1 | +5.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams72% | 13 | 42% | 41 | 2 | +1.9 |
| J.Blue19% | 8 | 26% | 29 | -1.4 | |
| D.Prescott88% | 6 | 19% | 31 | +2.4 | |
| M.Davis5% | 2 | 6% | 3 | -0.7 | |
| C.Lamb72% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.3 | |
| H.Luepke18% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb72% | 10 | 29% | 7 | 74 | -4.8 | |
| G.Pickens80% | 9 | 26% | 7 | 78 | +7.9 | |
| K.Turpin41% | 5 | 14% | 1 | -2 | -4.7 | |
| L.Schoonmaker39% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 25 | +1.7 | |
| J.Williams72% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.2 | |
| J.Tolbert19% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 47 | 1 | +5.5 |
| R.Flournoy46% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 7 | -0.6 | |
| J.Ferguson59% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| B.Spann-Ford31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 |
Defense T.Bridges 1 INT · Kicking B.Aubrey 1/1 FG (long 24)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix94% | 19/29 | 247 | 4 | 1 | +14.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins52% | 15 | 54% | 111 | +3.2 | |
| R.Harvey27% | 7 | 25% | 46 | 2 | +2.7 |
| M.Jr.30% | 3 | 11% | 18 | +1.0 | |
| J.Stidham6% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| T.Badie17% | 1 | 4% | 6 | -0.5 | |
| B.Nix94% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Franklin63% | 8 | 30% | 6 | 89 | 2 | +8.6 |
| C.Sutton84% | 6 | 22% | 4 | 67 | +3.6 | |
| E.Engram43% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 36 | +3.4 | |
| P.Bryant56% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 40 | 1 | -1.6 |
| J.Dobbins52% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 10 | +0.2 | |
| N.Adkins25% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| M.Jr.30% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| R.Harvey27% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | 1 | +2.7 |
Defense D.Tillman 1 INT, J.Barron 1 INT, J.Franklin-Myers 1 sack, Z.Allen 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 1/1 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Broncos take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (1st). Cowboys get home on 6% (24th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Cowboys are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.41 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Cowboys give up 52 yards a game to tight ends (15th), against a league average of 53. Broncos' tight ends produce 39 (28th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Broncos create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (20th). Cowboys give them up at 12% (31st).
The Broncos lead the series 7–0 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 7. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | DAL 24 at DEN 44 |
| 2021 · Wk 9 | DEN 30 at DAL 16 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | DAL 17 at DEN 42 |
| 2013 · Wk 5 | DEN 51 at DAL 48 |
| 2009 · Wk 4 | DAL 10 at DEN 17 |
2025 records
| Cowboys | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–9–1 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 4–7–1 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 4–3–1 | 8–1 |
| Away | 3–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | WWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 27.7 – 30.1 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#14 | +0.17#32 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#17 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#17 | 6.3#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#20 | 12%#31 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#12 | +0.22#31 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#1 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#19 | +0.05#30 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#18 | 4.7#27 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#11 | 48%#32 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#16 | 67%#29 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 153#12 | 171#32 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 39#28 | 52#15 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#18 | 6.8#12 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#8 | 43#31 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.