2025
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
49ers offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for 49ers, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 26–15 and were favored the whole way, never below 52%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 11:01, 8 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 11:01HOUC.Stroud pass short middle to B.Berrios to SF 33 for 14 yards (D.Winters).54% → 62%
- 2Q1 3:01HOUB.C.Stroud pass short right to W.Marks to SF 32 for 50 yards (J.Brown).62% → 70%
- 3Q2 0:29SFM.Jones pass deep middle to G.Kittle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.11% → 18%
- 4Q2 10:18HOUB.C.Stroud pass deep left to J.Noel pushed ob at SF 23 for 44 yards (M.Mustapha).76% → 83%
- 5Q1 14:49HOUN.Chubb up the middle to HOU 37 for 9 yards (M.Mustapha).52% → 59%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Bourne led the 49ers at +2.6 EPA (3 catches for 44). C.Stroud led the Texans at +23.5 EPA (30 of 39 for 318).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jones100% | 19/32 | 193 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey96% | 8 | 80% | 25 | -0.7 | |
| M.Jones100% | 2 | 20% | 23 | +1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jennings85% | 7 | 23% | 4 | 45 | -1.1 | |
| C.McCaffrey96% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 43 | +0.1 | |
| G.Kittle90% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 43 | 1 | +2.0 |
| K.Bourne79% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 44 | +2.6 | |
| D.Robinson56% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 5 | -0.3 | |
| K.Juszczyk42% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| J.Watkins12% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 7 | -1.3 | |
| J.Tonges10% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +0.7 |
| S.Moore19% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense D.Lenoir 1 INT
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 30/39 | 318 | 2 | 1 | +19.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Chubb44% | 17 | 47% | 56 | -5.3 | |
| W.Marks40% | 11 | 31% | 62 | -0.7 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 7 | 19% | 30 | +4.4 | |
| D.Ogunbowale16% | 1 | 3% | 9 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Higgins82% | 8 | 21% | 4 | 34 | 1 | +1.5 |
| X.Hutchinson71% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 69 | 1 | +4.9 |
| J.Noel39% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 63 | +5.3 | |
| B.Berrios29% | 5 | 13% | 5 | 38 | +4.1 | |
| W.Marks40% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 49 | +1.8 | |
| D.Schultz61% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 24 | +1.6 | |
| N.Chubb44% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| J.Wayne44% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 20 | +0.6 | |
| D.Ogunbowale16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | -0.2 | |
| H.Bryant28% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense K.Lassiter 1 INT, D.Barnett 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 4/4 FG (long 37)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
49ers score a touchdown on 69% of red zone trips (2nd). Texans allow 60% (21st).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. 49ers send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
49ers average 3.7 yards per carry (29th). Texans allow 3.5 (2nd).
Success rate
Call this one even. 49ers succeed on 48% of plays (3rd) against a defense that allows 37% (2nd).
The 49ers lead the series 4–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | SF 15 at HOU 26 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | HOU 7 at SF 23 |
| 2017 · Wk 14 | SF 26 at HOU 16 |
| 2013 · Wk 5 | HOU 3 at SF 34 |
| 2009 · Wk 7 | SF 21 at HOU 24 |
2025 records
| 49ers | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 12–5 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 7–2 |
| Away | 7–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 21.8 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SF off | Favors SF · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#9 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 48%#3 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#8 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#4 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#13 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#29 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 51%#1 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#2 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 124#24 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#12 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#13 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 69#1 | 31#18 | 32 | |
49ers: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.