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2025 season · Nov 20 to Nov 24 · 14 games · byes: DEN, LAC, MIA, WAS

Week 12 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

14 of 14 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Texans beat the Bills 23–19 as a 29% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Cowboys were down to 2% against the Eagles and won 24–21.
  • WildestJaguars at Cardinals: the lead changed hands 4 times and it went to overtime; the Jaguars won 27–24, and the biggest swing was 28 points at Q4 7:19.
  • Best offenseThe Seahawks: +0.29 EPA a play against the Titans, +0.26 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Rams held the Buccaneers to −0.43 EPA a play, −0.40 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerJaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR): +13.9 EPA, 8/10, 167 yds, 2 TD.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 12
Games final14 of 14
Overtime3
Comebacks4
Upsets4
Points601
Biggest swing48 pts
BUFBills19HOUTexans23
Biggest swing 48 pts · Q4 0:51
Upset · 29% at kickoffComeback from 14%
NYJJets10BALRavens23
Biggest swing 10 pts · Q3 14:43
Led all the way
PITSteelers28CHIBears31
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q2 1:32
NEPatriots26CINBengals20
Biggest swing 25 pts · Q2 7:51
NYGGiants27DETLions34
Biggest swing 25 pts · Q4 10:50
Comeback from 14%Overtime
MINVikings6GBPackers23
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q3 11:49
Led all the way
INDColts20KCChiefs23
Biggest swing 24 pts · Q4 3:18
Comeback from 11%Overtime
SEASeahawks30TENTitans24
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q2 11:11
Led all the way
JAXJaguars27ARICardinals24
Biggest swing 28 pts · Q4 7:19
Overtime
CLEBrowns24LVRaiders10
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q3 0:58
Upset · 42% at kickoff
PHIEagles21DALCowboys24
Biggest swing 31 pts · Q4 5:25
Upset · 40% at kickoffComeback from 2%
ATLFalcons24NOSaints10
Biggest swing 18 pts · Q2 6:53
Upset · 48% at kickoff
TBBuccaneers7LARams34
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 1:54
Led all the way
CARPanthers9SF49ers20
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q1 1:28
Led all the way

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1BUFBills · Q4 0:51 · BUF at HOUJ.Allen pass short right to J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (J.Reed).+4810% → 58%
  2. 2HOUTexans · Q4 0:24 · BUF at HOUJ.Allen pass short left intended for J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by C.Bullock at HOU 9. C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (J.Palmer). Penalty on…+3660% → 96%
  3. 3DALCowboys · Q4 5:25 · PHI at DALB.Anger punts 58 yards to PHI 2 X.Gipson to PHI 12 for 10 yards (A.Clark; M.Bell). FUMBLES (A.Clark), touched at PHI 7, RECOVERED by DAL-T.Sieg at…+3141% → 72%
  4. 4ARICardinals · Q4 7:19 · JAX at ARIJ.Brissett pass short middle to G.Dortch for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2837% → 65%
  5. 5NEPatriots · Q2 7:51 · NE at CINJ.Flacco pass short right intended for T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by M.Jones at CIN 33. M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2553% → 78%
  6. 6DETLions · Q4 10:50 · NYG at DETJ.Winston pass short right intended for W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by T.Harper at NYG 45. T.Harper to NYG 45 for no gain (W.Robinson).+2543% → 68%
  7. 7KCChiefs · Q4 3:18 · IND at KCP.Mahomes pass short left to R.Rice to IND 24 for 19 yards (C.Bynum).+2435% → 59%
  8. 8DALCowboys · Q4 0:03 · PHI at DALB.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD+2377% → 100%
  9. 9DALCowboys · Q4 2:00 · PHI at DALJ.Hurts sacked at PHI 24 for -13 yards (O.Odighizuwa).+2334% → 57%
  10. 10BUFBills · Q2 1:56 · BUF at HOUK.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2354% → 77%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1CLEBrowns · Q4 8:29 · vs LV · Dylan SampsonS.Sanders pass short right to D.Sampson for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.6EPA
  2. 2SEASeahawks · Q2 11:11 · vs TEN · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaS.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.4EPA
  3. 3PITSteelers · Q2 1:32 · vs CHI · Kenneth GainwellDirect snap to Co.Heyward. K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner…+5.9EPA
  4. 4CLEBrowns · Q1 1:43 · vs LV · Isaiah BondS.Sanders pass deep right to I.Bond to LV 2 for 52 yards [M.Crosby].+5.4EPA
  5. 5DETLions · Q5 9:53 · vs NYG · Jahmyr GibbsJ.Gibbs right tackle for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.2EPA
  6. 6ARICardinals · Q4 7:19 · vs JAX · Greg DortchJ.Brissett pass short middle to G.Dortch for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.8EPA
  7. 7PHIEagles · Q2 13:00 · vs DAL · DeVonta SmithJ.Hurts pass deep right to D.Smith to DAL 11 for 41 yards.+4.5EPA
  8. 8BUFBills · Q1 9:19 · vs HOU · James CookJ.Cook right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA
  9. 9NYGGiants · Q1 13:05 · vs DET · Wan'Dale RobinsonJ.Winston pass deep left to W.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [B.Branch].+4.4EPA
  10. 10DETLions · Q4 11:01 · vs NYG · Jahmyr GibbsJ.Gibbs right tackle for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1SEASeahawksat TEN · W 30–24+0.29+0.26 vs usual
2DETLionsvs NYG · W 34–27+0.15+0.07 vs usual
3NYGGiantsat DET · L 27–34+0.12+0.11 vs usual
4LARamsvs TB · W 34–7+0.10−0.05 vs usual
5PHIEaglesat DAL · L 21–24+0.06+0.04 vs usual
6GBPackersvs MIN · W 23–6+0.02−0.10 vs usual
7CHIBearsvs PIT · W 31–28+0.01−0.06 vs usual
8KCChiefsvs IND · W 23–20+0.01−0.02 vs usual
9NEPatriotsat CIN · W 26–20+0.00−0.09 vs usual
10PITSteelersat CHI · L 28–31+0.00+0.01 vs usual
11SF49ersvs CAR · W 20–9−0.00−0.07 vs usual
12INDColtsat KC · L 20–23−0.00−0.08 vs usual
13TENTitansvs SEA · L 24–30−0.01+0.17 vs usual
14DALCowboysvs PHI · W 24–21−0.02−0.13 vs usual
15BALRavensvs NYJ · W 23–10−0.05−0.09 vs usual
16HOUTexansvs BUF · W 23–19−0.06−0.04 vs usual
17ATLFalconsat NO · W 24–10−0.11−0.10 vs usual
18ARICardinalsvs JAX · L 24–27−0.15−0.14 vs usual
19BUFBillsat HOU · L 19–23−0.16−0.32 vs usual
20NYJJetsat BAL · L 10–23−0.17−0.05 vs usual
21JAXJaguarsat ARI · W 27–24−0.19−0.23 vs usual
22CINBengalsvs NE · L 20–26−0.19−0.20 vs usual
23CARPanthersat SF · L 9–20−0.20−0.17 vs usual
24CLEBrownsat LV · W 24–10−0.22−0.03 vs usual
25NOSaintsvs ATL · L 10–24−0.28−0.20 vs usual
26LVRaidersvs CLE · L 10–24−0.38−0.18 vs usual
27MINVikingsat GB · L 6–23−0.43−0.33 vs usual
28TBBuccaneersat LA · L 7–34−0.43−0.45 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 119Jameis WinstonNYG vs DET · 18/36, 366 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4-13 rush+12.8
  2. 215Patrick MahomesKC vs IND · 29/46, 352 yds, 1 INT · 4-30 rush+11.6
  3. 31Jalen HurtsPHI vs DAL · 27/39, 289 yds, 1 TD · 7-33 rush+10.7
  4. 41Cam WardTEN vs SEA · 28/42, 256 yds, 1 TD · 6-37 rush+8.7
  5. 59Matthew StaffordLA vs TB · 25/35, 273 yds, 3 TD+8.2
  6. 614Sam DarnoldSEA vs TEN · 16/26, 244 yds, 2 TD+7.8
  7. 710Drake MayeNE vs CIN · 22/35, 294 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5-22 rush+6.3
  8. 810Jordan LoveGB vs MIN · 14/21, 139 yds · 3-15 rush+6.0
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 10Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NYG · 15 car, 219 yds, 2 TD · 11-45 rec+13.5
  2. 226Ty JohnsonBUF vs HOU · 2 car, 7 yds · 3-45 rec+6.7
  3. 314Kenneth GainwellPIT vs CHI · 10 car, 92 yds · 6-30 rec+5.8
  4. 47Bijan RobinsonATL vs NO · 14 car, 70 yds · 2-37 rec+4.2
  5. 522Michael CarterARI vs JAX · 5 car, 28 yds · 3-30 rec+4.0
  6. 626Zach CharbonnetSEA vs TEN · 6 car, 35 yds, 1 TD+3.4
  7. 725Kyle MonangaiCHI vs PIT · 12 car, 48 yds, 1 TD+3.1
  8. 822Dylan SampsonCLE vs LV · 7 car, 23 yds · 2-59 rec+2.9
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 10Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NYG · RB44.4
  2. 219Jameis WinstonNYG vs DET · QB31.2
  3. 31Jalen HurtsPHI vs DAL · QB30.9
  4. 411Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs TEN · WR29.1
  5. 54Dak PrescottDAL vs PHI · QB27.1
  6. 623Emanuel WilsonGB vs MIN · RB24.5
  7. 71Cam WardTEN vs SEA · QB23.9
  8. 89Matthew StaffordLA vs TB · QB22.9
  9. 918Caleb WilliamsCHI vs PIT · QB21.7
  10. 1017Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG vs DET · WR21.6
  11. 1114Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NYG · WR20.9
  12. 1222Derrick HenryBAL vs NYJ · RB20.8
  13. 133George PickensDAL vs PHI · WR20.6
  14. 1423Christian McCaffreySF vs CAR · RB20.2
  15. 154James CookBUF vs HOU · RB18.9
  16. 167Jacoby BrissettARI vs JAX · QB18.7
  1. 10Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NYG · RB49.9
  2. 211Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs TEN · WR33.1
  3. 319Jameis WinstonNYG vs DET · QB31.7
  4. 41Jalen HurtsPHI vs DAL · QB30.9
  5. 54Dak PrescottDAL vs PHI · QB27.1
  6. 617Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG vs DET · WR26.1
  7. 723Emanuel WilsonGB vs MIN · RB25.5
  8. 814Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NYG · WR25.4
  9. 93George PickensDAL vs PHI · WR25.1
  10. 101Cam WardTEN vs SEA · QB23.9
  11. 1123Christian McCaffreySF vs CAR · RB23.7
  12. 129Matthew StaffordLA vs TB · QB22.9
  13. 1322Derrick HenryBAL vs NYJ · RB21.8
  14. 1418Caleb WilliamsCHI vs PIT · QB21.7
  15. 1585Hunter HenryNE vs CIN · TE21.0
  16. 1611A.J. BrownPHI vs DAL · WR21.0
  1. 10Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NYG · RB55.4
  2. 211Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs TEN · WR37.1
  3. 319Jameis WinstonNYG vs DET · QB32.2
  4. 41Jalen HurtsPHI vs DAL · QB30.9
  5. 517Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG vs DET · WR30.6
  6. 614Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NYG · WR29.9
  7. 73George PickensDAL vs PHI · WR29.6
  8. 823Christian McCaffreySF vs CAR · RB27.2
  9. 94Dak PrescottDAL vs PHI · QB27.1
  10. 1023Emanuel WilsonGB vs MIN · RB26.5
  11. 1111A.J. BrownPHI vs DAL · WR25.0
  12. 122Ashton JeantyLV vs CLE · RB24.8
  13. 1385Hunter HenryNE vs CIN · TE24.5
  14. 144Rashee RiceKC vs IND · WR24.1
  15. 151Cam WardTEN vs SEA · QB23.9
  16. 162DJ MooreCHI vs PIT · WR23.4
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 111Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs TEN · 8/10, 167 yds, 2 TD+13.9
  2. 23George PickensDAL vs PHI · 9/9, 146 yds, 1 TD+11.9
  3. 311A.J. BrownPHI vs DAL · 8/10, 110 yds, 1 TD+8.4
  4. 41Darnell MooneyATL vs NO · 3/3, 74 yds, 1 TD+7.1
  5. 517Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG vs DET · 9/14, 156 yds, 1 TD+6.5
  6. 614Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NYG · 9/13, 149 yds, 1 TD+5.8
  7. 74Rashee RiceKC vs IND · 8/12, 141 yds+5.6
  8. 813James ProcheTEN vs SEA · 3/3, 42 yds+5.0
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 185Brenton StrangeJAX vs ARI · 5/5, 93 yds+6.5
  2. 285Trey McBrideARI vs JAX · 9/10, 79 yds+5.7
  3. 384Colby ParkinsonLA vs TB · 4/4, 41 yds, 1 TD+5.6
  4. 485George KittleSF vs CAR · 6/10, 78 yds+4.1
  5. 584Theo JohnsonNYG vs DET · 3/5, 77 yds+3.0
  6. 684Colston LovelandCHI vs PIT · 4/5, 49 yds, 1 TD+2.8
  7. 785Jackson HawesBUF vs HOU · 2/2, 26 yds+2.5
  8. 885Hunter HenryNE vs CIN · 7/10, 115 yds, 1 TD+2.4

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 12 · against his own season358 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 12: Mason Rudolph (Steelers) took 100% of the snaps, up 82 points on his season; Jake Browning (Bengals) fell to 2% from 91.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
2Mason RudolphPIT · QB+82 pts18% → 100%3John Metchie IIINYJ · WR+69 pts17% → 86%82Mitchell TinsleyCIN · WR+60 pts14% → 74%15Mason TiptonNO · WR+60 pts10% → 70%15Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR+57 pts28% → 85%
▼ Fallers
6Jake BrowningCIN · QB−89 pts91% → 2%84Kendrick BourneSF · WR−58 pts67% → 9%41Alvin KamaraNO · RB−55 pts69% → 14%87Michael MayerLV · TE−48 pts64% → 16%5Dyami BrownJAX · WR−46 pts52% → 6%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
81Jayden HigginsHOU · WR+22 pts10% → 32%3John Metchie IIINYJ · WR+22 pts4% → 26%9Christian WatsonGB · WR+20 pts14% → 33%14Michael WilsonARI · WR+18 pts14% → 33%0Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB+18 pts14% → 32%
▼ Fallers
88Dallas GoedertPHI · TE−16 pts21% → 6%12Nico CollinsHOU · WR−15 pts26% → 11%3Jordan AddisonMIN · WR−15 pts21% → 6%8Stefon DiggsNE · WR−15 pts24% → 9%85David NjokuCLE · TE−14 pts14% → 0%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
0Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB+11.6 EPA+1.9 → +13.51Cam WardTEN · QB+10.8 EPA-8.6 → +2.16Jake BrowningCIN · QB+10.6 EPA-9.8 → +0.811Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR+8.5 EPA+5.4 → +13.91Darnell MooneyATL · WR+7.9 EPA-0.8 → +7.1
▼ Fallers
6Baker MayfieldTB · QB−19.4 EPA+1.1 → -18.27Geno SmithLV · QB−15.8 EPA-4.5 → -20.317Josh AllenBUF · QB−13.8 EPA+6.5 → -7.316Jared GoffDET · QB−13.2 EPA+6.4 → -6.910Teddy BridgewaterTB · QB−12.5 EPA0.0 → -12.5
New faces85Teagan QuitorianoATL · TE · first start-level week, 62% of the snaps82Mitchell TinsleyCIN · WR · first start-level week, 74% of the snaps87Xavier RestrepoTEN · WR · debut, 25% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.