2025
Week 12 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Panthers, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 20–9 and were favored the whole way, never below 69%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 1:28, 13 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:28CARJ.B.Young pass short right intended for M.Evans INTERCEPTED by J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.74% → 87%
- 2Q2 6:27SFB.Purdy pass deep middle intended for R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by Ja.Horn at CAR 45. Ja.Horn ran ob at SF 33 for 22 yards (C.McKivitz).12% → 23%
- 3Q1 3:40SFB.Purdy pass deep middle intended for J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by Ja.Horn at SF 30. Ja.Horn to SF 16 for 14 yards (K.Juszczyk).13% → 21%
- 4Q1 2:08CARB.Young scrambles right end to SF 1 for 7 yards (M.Mustapha).20% → 26%
- 5Q2 9:42SFB.Purdy pass deep middle intended for R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by M.Jackson at CAR -1. Touchback.12% → 16%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Dowdle led the Panthers at +1.5 EPA (6 carries for 38). G.Kittle led the 49ers at +4.1 EPA (6 catches for 78).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 18/29 | 169 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -10.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle65% | 6 | 46% | 38 | +1.1 | |
| B.Young100% | 4 | 31% | 15 | +1.0 | |
| C.Hubbard35% | 3 | 23% | 16 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan91% | 7 | 26% | 2 | 35 | 1 | -4.6 |
| X.Legette67% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 22 | +0.7 | |
| R.Dowdle65% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 36 | +0.5 | |
| C.Hubbard35% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 27 | +1.1 | |
| J.Coker83% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 32 | +1.4 | |
| J.Sanders57% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | -0.2 | |
| M.Evans22% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -7.3 | |
| J.Jr.22% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.7 |
Defense J.Horn 2 INT, M.Jackson 1 INT · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/2 FG (long 25)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 23/32 | 193 | 1 | 3 | -3.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey83% | 24 | 63% | 89 | 1 | -1.6 |
| B.Robinson17% | 7 | 18% | 40 | +0.1 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 6 | 16% | 16 | +3.6 | |
| R.Pearsall76% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Kittle91% | 10 | 31% | 6 | 78 | +4.1 | |
| C.McCaffrey83% | 7 | 22% | 7 | 53 | +2.2 | |
| J.Jennings90% | 7 | 22% | 5 | 41 | 1 | -1.0 |
| R.Pearsall76% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 6 | -7.7 | |
| B.Robinson17% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 | |
| D.Robinson54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.1 | |
| L.Farrell27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 |
Defense J.Brown 2 INT, C.Ferrell 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 2/2 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Panthers take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (13th). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
49ers give up 53 yards a game to tight ends (17th), against a league average of 53. Panthers' tight ends produce 37 (30th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Panthers average -0.04 EPA per play (26th). 49ers allow +0.07 (24th). League average is +0.01.
The Panthers lead the series 10–6 since 1999. The 49ers have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 | CAR 9 at SF 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 5 | SF 37 at CAR 15 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | CAR 13 at SF 51 |
| 2017 · Wk 1 | CAR 23 at SF 3 |
| 2016 · Wk 2 | SF 27 at CAR 46 |
2025 records
| Panthers | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 7–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 25.7 – 21.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#26 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#18 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#26 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#24 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#25 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#17 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#14 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#25 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#20 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 131#19 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#30 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#27 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.