2025
Week 12 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
49ers offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for 49ers, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 20–9 and were favored the whole way, never below 69%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 1:28, 13 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:28SFJ.B.Young pass short right intended for M.Evans INTERCEPTED by J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.74% → 87%
- 2Q2 6:27CARB.Purdy pass deep middle intended for R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by Ja.Horn at CAR 45. Ja.Horn ran ob at SF 33 for 22 yards (C.McKivitz).12% → 23%
- 3Q1 3:40CARB.Purdy pass deep middle intended for J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by Ja.Horn at SF 30. Ja.Horn to SF 16 for 14 yards (K.Juszczyk).13% → 21%
- 4Q1 2:08CARB.Young scrambles right end to SF 1 for 7 yards (M.Mustapha).20% → 26%
- 5Q2 9:42CARB.Purdy pass deep middle intended for R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by M.Jackson at CAR -1. Touchback.12% → 16%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Dowdle led the Panthers at +1.5 EPA (6 carries for 38). G.Kittle led the 49ers at +4.1 EPA (6 catches for 78).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 18/29 | 169 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -10.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle65% | 6 | 46% | 38 | +1.1 | |
| B.Young100% | 4 | 31% | 15 | +1.0 | |
| C.Hubbard35% | 3 | 23% | 16 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan91% | 7 | 26% | 2 | 35 | 1 | -4.6 |
| X.Legette67% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 22 | +0.7 | |
| R.Dowdle65% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 36 | +0.5 | |
| C.Hubbard35% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 27 | +1.1 | |
| J.Coker83% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 32 | +1.4 | |
| J.Sanders57% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | -0.2 | |
| M.Evans22% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -7.3 | |
| J.Jr.22% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.7 |
Defense J.Horn 2 INT, M.Jackson 1 INT · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/2 FG (long 25)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 23/32 | 193 | 1 | 3 | -3.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey83% | 24 | 63% | 89 | 1 | -1.6 |
| B.Robinson17% | 7 | 18% | 40 | +0.1 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 6 | 16% | 16 | +3.6 | |
| R.Pearsall76% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Kittle91% | 10 | 31% | 6 | 78 | +4.1 | |
| C.McCaffrey83% | 7 | 22% | 7 | 53 | +2.2 | |
| J.Jennings90% | 7 | 22% | 5 | 41 | 1 | -1.0 |
| R.Pearsall76% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 6 | -7.7 | |
| B.Robinson17% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 | |
| D.Robinson54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.1 | |
| L.Farrell27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 |
Defense J.Brown 2 INT, C.Ferrell 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 2/2 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor 49ers
49ers convert 51% of third downs (1st). Panthers allow 47% (30th).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. 49ers send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Panthers give up 130 yards a game to wide receivers (13th), against a league average of 140. 49ers' wide receivers produce 124 (24th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. 49ers gain 5.6 yards per play (11th). Panthers give up 5.6 (20th), with the league at 5.4.
The Panthers lead the series 10–6 since 1999. The 49ers have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 | CAR 9 at SF 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 5 | SF 37 at CAR 15 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | CAR 13 at SF 51 |
| 2017 · Wk 1 | CAR 23 at SF 3 |
| 2016 · Wk 2 | SF 27 at CAR 46 |
2025 records
| Panthers | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 7–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 25.7 – 21.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SF off | Favors SF · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#9 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 48%#3 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#8 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#4 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#13 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#29 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 51%#1 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#2 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 124#24 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#12 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#13 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 69#1 | 29#13 | 32 | |
49ers: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.