2025
Week 12 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 23–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 62%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 14:43, 10 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 14:43BALL.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.62% → 72%
- 2Q2 4:09NYJT.Taylor pass short left to J.Metchie for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.25% → 33%
- 3Q2 0:38BALT.Taylor sacked at BAL 47 for -8 yards (D.Jones).66% → 74%
- 4Q3 3:35BALD.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.88% → 96%
- 5Q3 6:42BALT.Taylor pass incomplete short right to J.Metchie.83% → 88%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.III led the Jets at +3.6 EPA (6 catches for 65). Z.Flowers led the Ravens at +4.9 EPA (5 catches for 58).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Taylor100% | 17/28 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall71% | 16 | 62% | 44 | -8.3 | |
| T.Taylor100% | 5 | 19% | 19 | +1.1 | |
| I.Davis29% | 4 | 15% | 7 | -4.1 | |
| A.Smith24% | 1 | 4% | 8 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.III86% | 7 | 26% | 6 | 65 | 1 | +3.6 |
| A.Mitchell85% | 7 | 26% | 2 | 42 | +2.2 | |
| M.Taylor88% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 21 | -2.5 | |
| B.Hall71% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 75 | +5.0 | |
| A.Lazard | 3 | 11% | 1 | 9 | -4.0 | |
| A.Beck7% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +0.7 |
Defense J.Briggs 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 1/1 FG (long 42)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 13/23 | 153 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry56% | 21 | 62% | 64 | 2 | -1.7 |
| L.Jackson100% | 7 | 21% | 11 | -1.9 | |
| M.Andrews67% | 2 | 6% | 2 | +0.1 | |
| K.Mitchell19% | 2 | 6% | 10 | +0.6 | |
| Z.Flowers84% | 2 | 6% | 11 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers84% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 58 | +4.7 | |
| D.Hopkins54% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 13 | +0.3 | |
| M.Andrews67% | 3 | 15% | 1 | 9 | -2.4 | |
| I.Likely57% | 3 | 15% | 1 | 10 | -2.1 | |
| D.Henry56% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 24 | +1.3 | |
| T.Wallace27% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| K.Mitchell19% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 9 | +0.3 | |
| D.Walker40% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 30 | +1.9 |
Defense D.Jones 1.5 sacks, T.Tampa 1 INT, M.Green 1 sack, T.Bryan 0.5 sacks · Kicking T.Loop 3/3 FG (long 35)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Ravens give up 43 yards a game to running backs (30th), against a league average of 32. Jets' running backs produce 35 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Jets send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Jets score a touchdown on 44% of red zone trips (31st). Ravens allow 53% (5th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jets gain 4.5 yards per play (29th). Ravens give up 5.6 (22nd), with the league at 5.4.
The Ravens lead the series 10–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 | NYJ 10 at BAL 23 |
| 2022 · Wk 1 | BAL 24 at NYJ 9 |
| 2019 · Wk 15 | NYJ 21 at BAL 42 |
| 2016 · Wk 7 | BAL 16 at NYJ 24 |
| 2013 · Wk 12 | NYJ 3 at BAL 19 |
2025 records
| Jets | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 8–9 |
| Division | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–7 | 3–6 |
| Away | 1–7 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LWLWL |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 17.6 – 29.6 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.