This week

Explore

DOWN X DOWN › week 12 › Falcons at Saints

Season over · final

2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 12 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Falcons offensevsSaints defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 17 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

ATL offense NO offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · ATL 24 · NO 10

The Falcons won 24–10; their low point was 38% at Q1 13:18. The Saints had been 52% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 5:13: B.Pinion punts 48 yards to NO 15 D.Pettis to NO 17 for 2 yards (T.Allgeier). PENALTY on NO-J.Howden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NO 15 (50% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 6:53, 18 points for the Saints.

At kickoffNO 52%NO by 1.5 on the line

ATL low point38%Q1 13:18 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%7times the favorite changed

Biggest swing18 ptsNO · Q2 6:53

NO wins50%ATL wins

12345Turning pointATL low 38%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 6:53NOK.Cousins pass short right intended for K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by J.Reid (K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.24% → 42%+18
2Q1 13:00ATLT.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 39, touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by ATL-D.Alford at NO 41. D.Alford to NO 39 for 2 yards (T.Shough).40% → 54%+14
3Q1 10:42NOZ.Gonzalez kicks 56 yards from ATL 35 to NO 9. M.Tipton to ATL 16 for 75 yards (D.Hellams).47% → 59%+13
4Q4 12:22ATLDirect snap to T.Hill. T.Hill to ATL 5 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 12. T.Hill pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NO-T.Hill,…67% → 80%+13
5Q2 0:56ATLB.Grupe 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right60% → 72%+12
★Q1 5:13ATLB.Pinion punts 48 yards to NO 15 D.Pettis to NO 17 for 2 yards (T.Allgeier). PENALTY on NO-J.Howden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NO 15.turning point50% → 55%+6

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 12

D.Mooney led the Falcons at +7.1 EPA (3 catches for 74). M.Tipton led the Saints at +1.7 EPA (3 catches for 22).

Falcons

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
K.Cousins100%	16/23	199	2	1	3	-3.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
B.Robinson66%	14	48%	70	+0.7
T.Allgeier39%	12	41%	44	-3.7
K.Cousins100%	2	7%	5	+0.1
F.Franks5%	1	3%	2	+0.8

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
K.Pitts95%	5	25%	2	25		-9.9
D.Sills70%	3	15%	2	16	1	+2.7
D.Mooney66%	3	15%	3	74	1	+7.1
C.Woerner61%	3	15%	3	24		+1.0
D.Drummond27%	3	15%	3	18		-0.1
B.Robinson66%	2	10%	2	37		+3.5
T.Allgeier39%	1	5%	1	5		-0.1

Defense B.Dorlus 1.5 sacks, X.Watts 1 INT, J.Jr. 1.5 sacks, R.Orhorhoro 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 3/3 FG (long 56)

Saints

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Shough95%	30/43	243		1	5	-10.3
T.Hill32%	0/2	0				-7.6

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
T.Hill32%	10	36%	17	+1.9
D.Neal74%	7	25%	18	-1.2
T.Shough95%	7	25%	22	-5.0
A.Kamara14%	3	11%	11	-0.3
M.Tipton70%	1	4%	11	+1.1

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
C.Olave80%	13	30%	9	70	-0.6
J.Johnson78%	7	16%	6	46	-0.2
D.Vele89%	7	16%	3	37	-2.6
D.Neal74%	7	16%	5	43	-0.5
M.Tipton70%	4	9%	3	22	+0.6
A.Kamara14%	2	5%	2	4	-1.5
D.Pettis8%	1	2%	1	14	-1.8
F.Moreau29%	1	2%	0	0	-0.5
J.Stoll11%	1	2%	1	7	+0.0

Defense J.Reid 1 INT, C.Jordan 1 sack, C.Young 1 sack, I.Stalbird 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 1/3 FG (long 33)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Tight ends feast

Saints give up 7.4 targets a game to tight ends (17th), against a league average of 7.3. Falcons' tight ends produce 7.5 (14th).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Saints are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.24 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Third downs favor Saints

Falcons convert 34% of third downs (30th). Saints allow 36% (4th).

Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Falcons create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (14th). Saints give them up at 9% (16th).

The series · Falcons and Saints since 1999, and this season's records55 meetings

The Saints lead the series 32–23 since 1999. The Falcons have won the last 3. Oct 5, 2026, at Caesars Superdome: the Falcons won 45–24. Tyler Shough started at quarterback for the Saints and Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons; Kellen Moore and Raheem Morris coached.

Falcons at home12–15the Falcons' record

In New Orleans11–17the Falcons' record

Most pointsFalcons 45 · Saints 482016 · 2023

Biggest winFalcons by 23 · Saints by 311999 · 2023

The last 5

2026 · Wk 4	ATL 45 at NO 24
2025 · Wk 18	NO 17 at ATL 19
2025 · Wk 12	ATL 24 at NO 10
2024 · Wk 10	ATL 17 at NO 20
2024 · Wk 4	NO 24 at ATL 26

2025 records

	Falcons	Saints
Overall	8–9	6–11
Division	3–3	3–3
Conference	7–5	4–8
Other conference	1–4	2–3
Home	4–4	3–5
Away	4–5	3–6
Last 5	LWWWW	WWWWL
Streak	Won 4	Lost 1
Points a game	20.8 – 23.6	18.0 – 22.5

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · ATL offense against NO defense

Stat	ATL off	NO def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.02#23	-0.06#10	+0.01
Success rate	44%#16	42%#7	44%
Yards per play	5.5#13	5.0#7	5.4
Explosive play rate	10%#14	9%#16	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.01#20	-0.05#12	+0.01
Sack rate	5%#5	8%#7	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.06#20	-0.12#4	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.6#7	3.9#9	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	34%#30	36%#4	40%
Red zone TD rate	61%#10	55%#11	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	107#28	122#6	140
TE yards per game	57#11	51#13	53
TE targets per game	7.5#14	7.4#17	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	54#2	24#3	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Falcons: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.339% of throws

+0.153% of throws

-0.078% of throws

Short

+0.0435% of throws

+0.1014% of throws

+0.0931% of throws

Saints: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.3145 throws

+1.2412 throws

+0.4235 throws