2025
Week 12 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 23–20 from as low as 11% (Q4 14:48, down 20–9). Tied 20–20 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 2:00: H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 3:18, 24 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:18KCP.Mahomes pass short left to R.Rice to IND 24 for 19 yards (C.Bynum).35% → 60%
- 2Q4 4:34KCP.Mahomes pass short right to R.Rice pushed ob at 50 for 47 yards (G.Pratt).28% → 46%
- 3Q4 14:56KCK.Hunt right end to IND 12 for 5 yards (Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (Z.Franklin), touched at IND 6, RECOVERED by IND-C.Ward at IND 6.72% → 89%
- 4Q4 1:10KCJ.K.Hunt up the middle to IND 2 for 3 yards (G.Pratt).68% → 83%
- 5Q1 9:01KCP.Mahomes pass short left intended for R.Rice INTERCEPTED by L.Latu at KC 6. L.Latu to KC 3 for 3 yards (P.Mahomes).39% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
A.Dulin led the Colts at +3.7 EPA (1 catches for 48). P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +11.6 EPA (29 of 46 for 352).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 19/31 | 181 | 2 | +1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor90% | 16 | 84% | 58 | -3.7 | |
| D.Jones100% | 3 | 16% | 16 | +2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Pittman82% | 8 | 26% | 5 | 27 | 1 | -2.1 |
| T.Warren86% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 45 | +1.8 | |
| J.Downs43% | 6 | 19% | 2 | 10 | -4.1 | |
| J.Taylor90% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 8 | -0.5 | |
| A.Ogletree22% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 8 | 1 | +1.5 |
| A.Pierce96% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 26 | +0.7 | |
| A.Abdullah8% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| M.Alie-Cox49% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| A.Dulin18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 48 | +3.7 |
Defense L.Latu 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, N.Gallimore 1 sack, K.Paye 1 sack, G.Stewart 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Badgley 2/2 FG (long 32)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 29/46 | 352 | 1 | 4 | +8.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt71% | 30 | 73% | 104 | 1 | -6.5 |
| C.Edwards-Helaire18% | 5 | 12% | 8 | -1.8 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 4 | 10% | 30 | +3.1 | |
| T.Kelce88% | 1 | 2% | 1 | -1.9 | |
| B.Smith19% | 1 | 2% | 5 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice62% | 12 | 28% | 8 | 141 | +5.6 | |
| X.Worthy77% | 8 | 19% | 4 | 59 | +2.1 | |
| T.Kelce88% | 6 | 14% | 4 | 43 | +2.4 | |
| N.Gray32% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 25 | +0.0 | |
| B.Smith19% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 31 | +0.6 | |
| K.Hunt71% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 26 | +0.7 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster47% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 | |
| C.Edwards-Helaire18% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 9 | +1.6 | |
| M.Brown35% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 10 | +0.8 | |
| T.Thornton26% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking H.Butker 5/5 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Colts
Colts convert 43% of third downs (7th). Chiefs allow 44% (27th).
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Colts send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Chiefs give up 5.9 targets a game to tight ends (4th), against a league average of 7.3. Colts' tight ends produce 8.2 (9th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Colts average +0.08 EPA per play (7th). Chiefs allow -0.02 (12th). League average is +0.01.
The Colts lead the series 12–6 since 1999. The Chiefs have won the last 2. Sep 20, 2026, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium: the Chiefs won 33–30 in overtime. Patrick Mahomes started at quarterback for the Chiefs and Daniel Jones for the Colts; Andy Reid and Shane Steichen coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 · OT | IND 30 at KC 33 |
| 2025 · Wk 12 · OT | IND 20 at KC 23 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | KC 17 at IND 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | IND 19 at KC 13 |
| 2018 · Wk 19 · playoffs | IND 13 at KC 31 |
2025 records
| Colts | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 6–11 |
| Division | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Away | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.