Patriots offensevsBengals defense

The Patriots won 26–20; their low point was 42% at Q2 13:08. The game turned for good at Q2 9:43: D.Maye pass deep left to H.Henry for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN (49% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 7:51, 25 points for the Patriots.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q2 7:51CINJ.Flacco pass short right intended for T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by M.Jones at CIN 33. M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 78%+25 NE
2. 2Q2 14:28NED.Maye pass deep middle intended for H.Henry INTERCEPTED by G.Stone at NE 32. G.Stone for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.39% → 57%+18 CIN
3. 3Q4 0:23CINJ.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to M.Gesicki (M.Jones) [K.Chaisson].87% → 99%+12 NE
4. 4Q4 3:01NED.Maye pass short middle to S.Diggs to CIN 36 for 14 yards (D.Turner).78% → 88%+10 NE
5. 5Q4 0:51CINJ.Flacco pass short right to M.Tinsley to NE 45 for 12 yards (M.Jones) [J.Hawkins]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling,…7% → 17%+10 CIN
6. ★Q2 9:43NED.Maye pass deep left to H.Henry for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point49% → 56%+7 NE

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.