2025
Week 12 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 21 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 26–20; their low point was 42% at Q2 13:08. The game turned for good at Q2 9:43: D.Maye pass deep left to H.Henry for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN (49% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 7:51, 25 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:51NEJ.Flacco pass short right intended for T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by M.Jones at CIN 33. M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 78%
- 2Q2 14:28CIND.Maye pass deep middle intended for H.Henry INTERCEPTED by G.Stone at NE 32. G.Stone for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.39% → 57%
- 3Q4 0:23NEJ.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to M.Gesicki (M.Jones) [K.Chaisson].87% → 99%
- 4Q4 3:01NED.Maye pass short middle to S.Diggs to CIN 36 for 14 yards (D.Turner).78% → 88%
- 5Q4 0:51CINJ.Flacco pass short right to M.Tinsley to NE 45 for 12 yards (M.Jones) [J.Hawkins]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling,…7% → 17%
- ★Q2 9:43NED.Maye pass deep left to H.Henry for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point49% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +6.3 EPA (22 of 35 for 294). A.Iosivas led the Bengals at +2.2 EPA (4 catches for 61).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 22/35 | 294 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +6.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson65% | 18 | 58% | 66 | +0.9 | |
| R.Stevenson31% | 6 | 19% | 5 | -7.6 | |
| D.Maye100% | 5 | 16% | 22 | -0.5 | |
| D.Douglas17% | 1 | 3% | 14 | +0.9 | |
| T.Jennings4% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Henry79% | 10 | 30% | 7 | 115 | 1 | +2.4 |
| M.Hollins86% | 6 | 18% | 2 | 30 | -0.7 | |
| A.Hooper56% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 39 | +1.9 | |
| T.Henderson65% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 15 | -0.3 | |
| S.Diggs48% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 20 | +0.4 | |
| R.Stevenson31% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 5 | -0.4 | |
| K.Boutte80% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 15 | +1.2 | |
| D.Douglas17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 37 | +4.1 | |
| K.Williams7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 18 | +1.4 |
Defense M.Jones 1 INT, H.III 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 4/4 FG (long 52)
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco98% | 19/37 | 183 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -14.5 |
| J.Browning2% | 1/1 | 14 | +0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown89% | 19 | 83% | 107 | +2.1 | |
| T.Brooks14% | 2 | 9% | 5 | -0.6 | |
| J.Flacco98% | 1 | 4% | 3 | +0.2 | |
| A.Iosivas83% | 1 | 4% | 5 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Iosivas83% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 61 | +2.3 | |
| M.Gesicki43% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 35 | +0.9 | |
| T.Higgins77% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 31 | -1.8 | |
| M.Tinsley74% | 6 | 18% | 2 | 29 | 1 | +1.8 |
| C.Brown89% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 23 | -2.4 | |
| T.Hudson22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | 0.0 | |
| D.Sample52% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| N.Fant28% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.9 | |
| C.Jones17% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| T.Brooks14% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -8.7 |
Defense G.Stone 1 INT, J.Davis 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 2/2 FG (long 63)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Patriots give up 7.5 targets a game to tight ends (20th), against a league average of 7.3. Bengals' tight ends produce 7.6 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Patriots are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.32 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Bengals gain -0.03 EPA per dropback (23rd). Patriots allow -0.12 (6th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bengals succeed on 46% of plays (10th) against a defense that allows 42% (11th).
The Patriots lead the series 10–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 | NE 26 at CIN 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | NE 16 at CIN 10 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | CIN 22 at NE 18 |
| 2019 · Wk 15 | NE 34 at CIN 13 |
| 2016 · Wk 6 | CIN 17 at NE 35 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 6–11 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 8–0 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | -0.09#5 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 4.9#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 8%#6 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | -0.12#6 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.09#12 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 3.9#8 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 36%#7 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 55%#8 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 117#4 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 55#20 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 7.5#20 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 29#11 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.