2025
Week 12 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 27–24; their low point in regulation was 34% at Q2 0:32. Tied 24–24 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 7:51: C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 7:19, 28 points for the Cardinals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 7:19ARIJ.Brissett pass short middle to G.Dortch for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.37% → 65%
- 2Q3 13:04ARIT.Lawrence pass short right intended for J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by G.Williams (C.Campbell) at ARI -6. Touchback.37% → 59%
- 3Q4 0:03ARIT.Lawrence kneels to JAX 34 for -1 yards.31% → 50%
- 4Q1 2:34ARIT.Lawrence sacked at JAX 3 for -9 yards (J.Thompson). FUMBLES (J.Thompson), RECOVERED by ARI-W.Nolen at JAX 7. W.Nolen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23% → 38%
- 5Q4 8:45ARIT.Lawrence pass short left intended for A.Trammell INTERCEPTED by B.Baker at JAX 41. B.Baker to JAX 41 for no gain (A.Trammell).25% → 40%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
B.Strange led the Jaguars at +6.5 EPA (5 catches for 93). T.McBride led the Cardinals at +5.7 EPA (9 catches for 79).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 18/30 | 256 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -9.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne65% | 15 | 54% | 86 | -1.4 | |
| B.Tuten21% | 7 | 25% | 17 | -3.0 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 5 | 18% | 29 | +3.0 | |
| L.Jr.15% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Washington84% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 71 | 1 | +4.5 |
| J.Meyers84% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 50 | 1 | -4.9 |
| B.Strange71% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 93 | +6.5 | |
| T.Patrick47% | 4 | 13% | 0 | 0 | -5.5 | |
| T.Etienne65% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 30 | 1 | +2.4 |
| J.Mundt48% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 12 | +0.3 | |
| A.Trammell10% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.7 | |
| B.Tuten21% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense D.Gardeck 1.5 sacks, D.Lloyd 1.5 sacks, J.Hines-Allen 1 sack, D.Hamilton 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 2/2 FG (long 52)
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett98% | 33/49 | 317 | 1 | 6 | -8.5 | |
| K.Slovis2% | 1/1 | -2 | -1.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Knight44% | 10 | 50% | 12 | 1 | -3.1 |
| M.Carter56% | 5 | 25% | 28 | +1.7 | |
| J.Brissett98% | 3 | 15% | 20 | +2.1 | |
| G.Dortch63% | 2 | 10% | -5 | -1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Wilson82% | 15 | 33% | 10 | 118 | +2.0 | |
| T.McBride88% | 10 | 22% | 9 | 79 | +5.7 | |
| G.Dortch63% | 9 | 20% | 6 | 53 | 1 | -3.3 |
| B.Knight44% | 5 | 11% | 4 | 20 | -0.9 | |
| M.Carter56% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 30 | +2.4 | |
| X.Weaver68% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 9 | -1.6 | |
| J.Deguara17% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 6 | +0.1 |
Defense B.Baker 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, A.Davis-Gaither 1 INT, G.Williams 1 INT, J.Thompson 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 1/2 FG (long 29)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Jaguars score a touchdown on 64% of red zone trips (9th). Cardinals allow 66% (28th).
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Cardinals give up 36 yards a game to running backs (24th), against a league average of 32. Jaguars' running backs produce 27 (23rd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jaguars gain 5.4 yards per play (15th). Cardinals give up 5.8 (25th), with the league at 5.4.
The Cardinals lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 · OT | JAX 27 at ARI 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 3 | ARI 31 at JAX 19 |
| 2017 · Wk 12 | JAX 24 at ARI 27 |
| 2013 · Wk 11 | ARI 27 at JAX 14 |
| 2009 · Wk 2 | ARI 31 at JAX 17 |
2025 records
| Jaguars | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13–4 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 0–5 |
| Home | 7–2 | 1–7 |
| Away | 6–2 | 2–7 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 8 | Lost 9 |
| Points a game | 27.9 – 19.8 | 20.9 – 28.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 36#24 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.