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2025 season · Oct 2 to Oct 6 · 14 games · byes: ATL, CHI, GB, PIT

Week 5 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

14 of 14 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe 49ers beat the Rams 26–23 as a 23% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Titans were down to 1% against the Cardinals and won 22–21.
  • WildestChiefs at Jaguars: the lead changed hands 3 times; the Jaguars won 31–28, and the biggest swing was 45 points at Q3 2:36.
  • Best offenseThe Seahawks: +0.41 EPA a play against the Buccaneers, +0.38 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Texans held the Ravens to −0.34 EPA a play, −0.18 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerBaker Mayfield (TB QB): +25.7 EPA, 29/33, 379 yds, 2 TD · 5-15 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 5
Games final14 of 14
Overtime1
Comebacks10
Upsets9
Points691
Biggest swing57 pts
SF49ers26LARams23
Biggest swing 57 pts · Q4 1:07
Upset · 23% at kickoffComeback from 20%Overtime
MINVikings21CLEBrowns17
Biggest swing 18 pts · Q4 1:35
Comeback from 17%
HOUTexans44BALRavens10
Biggest swing 7 pts · Q2 12:04
Led all the way
MIADolphins24CARPanthers27
Biggest swing 32 pts · Q4 4:50
Upset · 43% at kickoffComeback from 8%
LVRaiders6INDColts40
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q2 11:38
Led all the way
NYGGiants14NOSaints26
Biggest swing 38 pts · Q4 15:00
Comeback from 19%
DALCowboys37NYJJets22
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 2:27
Upset · 46% at kickoff
DENBroncos21PHIEagles17
Biggest swing 25 pts · Q4 0:04
Upset · 37% at kickoffComeback from 3%
TENTitans22ARICardinals21
Biggest swing 44 pts · Q4 0:03
Upset · 26% at kickoffComeback from 1%
TBBuccaneers38SEASeahawks35
Biggest swing 49 pts · Q4 0:58
Upset · 37% at kickoffComeback from 12%
DETLions37CINBengals24
Biggest swing 6 pts · Q2 14:49
Led all the way
WASCommanders27LACChargers10
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 0:50
Upset · 43% at kickoffComeback from 14%
NEPatriots23BUFBills20
Biggest swing 20 pts · Q2 0:01
Upset · 23% at kickoffComeback from 17%
KCChiefs28JAXJaguars31
Biggest swing 45 pts · Q3 2:36
Upset · 35% at kickoffComeback from 6%

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingsthe team with the ball, and the points of win probability for the team the play helped
  1. 1SF49ers · Q4 1:07 · SF at LAK.Williams up the middle to SF 2 for 1 yard (A.Collins). FUMBLES (A.Collins), RECOVERED by SF-A.Collins at SF 1.+57SF 22% → 79%
  2. 2TBBuccaneers · Q4 0:58 · TB at SEAS.Darnold pass short middle intended for C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by L.David (L.Hall) at SEA 38. L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (G.Zabel).+49TB 28% → 77%
  3. 3JAXJaguars · Q3 2:36 · KC at JAXP.Mahomes pass short middle intended for J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by D.Lloyd at JAX 1. D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+45JAX 24% → 69%
  4. 4TENTitans · Q4 0:03 · TEN at ARIJ.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD+44TEN 56% → 100%
  5. 5NOSaints · Q4 15:00 · NYG at NOC.Skattebo up the middle to NO 13 for -1 yards (B.Bresee). FUMBLES (B.Bresee), RECOVERED by NO-J.Howden at NO 14. J.Howden for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+38NO 52% → 90%
  6. 6TENTitans · Q4 0:32 · TEN at ARIC.Ward pass deep right to C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards.+35TEN 25% → 60%
  7. 7MIADolphins · Q4 4:50 · MIA at CART.Tagovailoa pass deep left to J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+32MIA 45% → 77%
  8. 8JAXJaguars · Q4 1:01 · KC at JAXT.Lawrence pass deep right to B.Thomas pushed ob at KC 24 for 33 yards (C.Conner).+26JAX 20% → 46%
  9. 9LARams · Q4 0:06 · SF at LAJ.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD+25LA 28% → 53%
  10. 10JAXJaguars · Q4 0:30 · KC at JAXT.Lawrence scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-C.Conner, Defensive Holding, declined.+25JAX 54% → 79%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1NOSaints · Q2 5:27 · vs NYG · Rashid ShaheedS.Rattler pass deep right to R.Shaheed for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.8EPA
  2. 2CINBengals · Q4 10:31 · vs DET · Ja'Marr ChaseJ.Browning pass deep left to J.Chase for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.8EPA
  3. 3TBBuccaneers · Q3 1:37 · vs SEA · Emeka EgbukaB.Mayfield pass deep left to E.Egbuka to SEA 2 for 57 yards.+6.1EPA
  4. 4DALCowboys · Q2 0:29 · vs NYJ · Javonte WilliamsJ.Williams left guard pushed ob at NYJ 1 for 66 yards.+5.2EPA
  5. 5PHIEagles · Q2 8:12 · vs DEN · DeVonta SmithJ.Hurts pass deep right to D.Smith to DEN 26 for 52 yards.+4.9EPA
  6. 6WASCommanders · Q4 1:14 · vs LAC · Deebo Samuel Sr.J.Daniels pass short right to D.Samuel for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.7EPA
  7. 7SEASeahawks · Q4 3:25 · vs TB · Tory HortonS.Darnold pass deep left to T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA
  8. 8TENTitans · Q4 11:54 · vs ARI · Calvin RidleyC.Ward pass deep middle to C.Ridley to ARI 20 for 47 yards.+4.3EPA
  9. 9DALCowboys · Q3 4:40 · vs NYJ · George PickensD.Prescott pass deep left to G.Pickens for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.1EPA
  10. 10MIADolphins · Q4 4:50 · vs CAR · Jaylen WaddleT.Tagovailoa pass deep left to J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.1EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1SEASeahawksvs TB · L 35–38+0.41+0.38 vs usual
2TBBuccaneersat SEA · W 38–35+0.40+0.43 vs usual
3HOUTexansat BAL · W 44–10+0.39+0.45 vs usual
4DALCowboysat NYJ · W 37–22+0.36+0.28 vs usual
5INDColtsvs LV · W 40–6+0.28+0.22 vs usual
6WASCommandersat LAC · W 27–10+0.26+0.26 vs usual
7DETLionsat CIN · W 37–24+0.23+0.15 vs usual
8KCChiefsat JAX · L 28–31+0.19+0.16 vs usual
9CARPanthersvs MIA · W 27–24+0.16+0.21 vs usual
10SF49ersat LA · W 26–23+0.13+0.07 vs usual
11MIADolphinsat CAR · L 24–27+0.10+0.12 vs usual
12LARamsvs SF · L 23–26+0.08−0.07 vs usual
13DENBroncosat PHI · W 21–17+0.07+0.04 vs usual
14NEPatriotsat BUF · W 23–20+0.06−0.03 vs usual
15NOSaintsvs NYG · W 26–14+0.05+0.14 vs usual
16BUFBillsvs NE · L 20–23+0.04−0.10 vs usual
17MINVikingsat CLE · W 21–17+0.04+0.16 vs usual
18JAXJaguarsvs KC · W 31–28+0.03−0.00 vs usual
19NYJJetsvs DAL · L 22–37+0.01+0.15 vs usual
20PHIEaglesvs DEN · L 17–21+0.00−0.02 vs usual
21CLEBrownsvs MIN · L 17–21−0.01+0.19 vs usual
22TENTitansat ARI · W 22–21−0.04+0.13 vs usual
23ARICardinalsvs TEN · L 21–22−0.07−0.06 vs usual
24CINBengalsvs DET · L 24–37−0.12−0.12 vs usual
25LACChargersvs WAS · L 10–27−0.14−0.11 vs usual
26LVRaidersat IND · L 6–40−0.21+0.00 vs usual
27NYGGiantsat NO · L 14–26−0.29−0.32 vs usual
28BALRavensvs HOU · L 10–44−0.34−0.39 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 16Baker MayfieldTB vs SEA · 29/33, 379 yds, 2 TD · 5-15 rush+25.7
  2. 214Sam DarnoldSEA vs TB · 28/34, 341 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT+23.4
  3. 37C.J. StroudHOU vs BAL · 23/27, 244 yds, 4 TD+21.3
  4. 410Mac JonesSF vs LA · 33/49, 342 yds, 2 TD · 4-5 rush+17.0
  5. 55Jayden DanielsWAS vs LAC · 15/26, 231 yds, 1 TD · 8-39 rush+15.3
  6. 617Daniel JonesIND vs LV · 20/29, 212 yds, 2 TD+12.8
  7. 74Dak PrescottDAL vs NYJ · 18/29, 237 yds, 4 TD · 7-28 rush+12.6
  8. 810Drake MayeNE vs BUF · 22/30, 273 yds · 3-12 rush+11.2
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 15Rico DowdleCAR vs MIA · 23 car, 206 yds, 1 TD · 3-28 rec+10.4
  2. 233Javonte WilliamsDAL vs NYJ · 16 car, 135 yds, 1 TD · 1-4 rec+7.3
  3. 30Jahmyr GibbsDET vs CIN · 12 car, 54 yds · 2-33 rec+5.1
  4. 422Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS vs LAC · 14 car, 111 yds, 2 TD · 2-39 rec+4.8
  5. 528Jonathan TaylorIND vs LV · 17 car, 66 yds, 3 TD · 3-20 rec+4.7
  6. 644British BrooksHOU vs BAL · 2 car, 15 yds+3.7
  7. 726Saquon BarkleyPHI vs DEN · 6 car, 30 yds · 3-58 rec+3.7
  8. 829Kareem HuntKC vs JAX · 7 car, 49 yds, 2 TD · 1-8 rec+2.8
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 15Rico DowdleCAR vs MIA · RB29.4
  2. 27C.J. StroudHOU vs BAL · QB28.8
  3. 328Jonathan TaylorIND vs LV · RB28.6
  4. 44Dak PrescottDAL vs NYJ · QB28.3
  5. 514Sam DarnoldSEA vs TB · QB27.6
  6. 615Patrick MahomesKC vs JAX · QB26.7
  7. 76Baker MayfieldTB vs SEA · QB26.7
  8. 816Trevor LawrenceJAX vs KC · QB26.2
  9. 933Javonte WilliamsDAL vs NYJ · RB25.9
  10. 107Justin FieldsNYJ vs DAL · QB25.9
  11. 119Matthew StaffordLA vs SF · QB25.6
  12. 1222Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS vs LAC · RB25.0
  13. 132Emeka EgbukaTB vs SEA · WR24.3
  14. 1423Kyren WilliamsLA vs SF · RB23.1
  15. 151Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs DET · WR23.0
  16. 161Tua TagovailoaMIA vs CAR · QB22.7
  1. 15Rico DowdleCAR vs MIA · RB30.9
  2. 228Jonathan TaylorIND vs LV · RB30.1
  3. 37C.J. StroudHOU vs BAL · QB28.8
  4. 44Dak PrescottDAL vs NYJ · QB28.3
  5. 52Emeka EgbukaTB vs SEA · WR27.8
  6. 614Sam DarnoldSEA vs TB · QB27.6
  7. 723Kyren WilliamsLA vs SF · RB27.1
  8. 815Patrick MahomesKC vs JAX · QB26.7
  9. 96Baker MayfieldTB vs SEA · QB26.7
  10. 1033Javonte WilliamsDAL vs NYJ · RB26.4
  11. 1116Trevor LawrenceJAX vs KC · QB26.2
  12. 121Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs DET · WR26.0
  13. 1322Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS vs LAC · RB26.0
  14. 147Justin FieldsNYJ vs DAL · QB25.9
  15. 159Matthew StaffordLA vs SF · QB25.6
  16. 1623Christian McCaffreySF vs LA · RB23.9
  1. 15Rico DowdleCAR vs MIA · RB32.4
  2. 228Jonathan TaylorIND vs LV · RB31.6
  3. 32Emeka EgbukaTB vs SEA · WR31.3
  4. 423Kyren WilliamsLA vs SF · RB31.1
  5. 51Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs DET · WR29.0
  6. 67C.J. StroudHOU vs BAL · QB28.8
  7. 74Dak PrescottDAL vs NYJ · QB28.3
  8. 823Christian McCaffreySF vs LA · RB27.9
  9. 914Sam DarnoldSEA vs TB · QB27.6
  10. 1011Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs TB · WR27.2
  11. 1122Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS vs LAC · RB27.0
  12. 1233Javonte WilliamsDAL vs NYJ · RB26.9
  13. 1315Patrick MahomesKC vs JAX · QB26.7
  14. 146Baker MayfieldTB vs SEA · QB26.7
  15. 1516Trevor LawrenceJAX vs KC · QB26.2
  16. 167Justin FieldsNYJ vs DAL · QB25.9
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 12Emeka EgbukaTB vs SEA · 7/7, 163 yds, 1 TD+17.1
  2. 20Calvin RidleyTEN vs ARI · 5/10, 131 yds+11.8
  3. 384Kendrick BourneSF vs LA · 10/11, 142 yds+11.2
  4. 411Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs TB · 8/9, 132 yds, 1 TD+11.0
  5. 517Jaylen WaddleMIA vs CAR · 6/9, 110 yds, 1 TD+10.4
  6. 622Rashid ShaheedNO vs NYG · 4/5, 114 yds, 1 TD+10.3
  7. 78Stefon DiggsNE vs BUF · 10/12, 146 yds+10.1
  8. 818Justin JeffersonMIN vs CLE · 7/11, 123 yds+8.6
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 183Darren WallerMIA vs CAR · 5/5, 78 yds, 1 TD+10.4
  2. 286Dalton KincaidBUF vs NE · 6/6, 108 yds+10.2
  3. 387Sam LaPortaDET vs CIN · 5/6, 92 yds, 1 TD+7.6
  4. 488Cade OttonTB vs SEA · 4/5, 81 yds+6.7
  5. 588AJ BarnerSEA vs TB · 7/7, 53 yds, 2 TD+6.0
  6. 686Dalton SchultzHOU vs BAL · 5/6, 60 yds+5.9
  7. 782Daniel BellingerNYG vs NO · 4/4, 52 yds+5.4
  8. 885David NjokuCLE vs MIN · 6/9, 67 yds, 1 TD+5.1

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 5 · against his own season366 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 5: Dillon Gabriel (Browns) took 100% of the snaps, up 93 points on his season; Tyler Johnson (Jets) fell to 4% from 73.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
8Dillon GabrielCLE · QB+93 pts7% → 100%15Cooper RushBAL · QB+83 pts17% → 100%6Jaxson DartNYG · QB+65 pts35% → 100%16Ashton DulinIND · WR+55 pts16% → 71%1Rachaad WhiteTB · RB+49 pts31% → 80%
▼ Fallers
16Tyler JohnsonNYJ · WR−69 pts73% → 4%11Kalif RaymondDET · WR−53 pts56% → 3%85Brenton StrangeJAX · TE−44 pts82% → 38%81Grant CalcaterraPHI · TE−43 pts54% → 11%16Tylan WallaceBAL · WR−35 pts44% → 9%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
19Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR+29 pts3% → 32%1Deebo Samuel Sr.WAS · WR+24 pts24% → 48%8Stefon DiggsNE · WR+21 pts22% → 43%16Ashton DulinIND · WR+15 pts1% → 16%85David NjokuCLE · TE+14 pts14% → 28%
▼ Fallers
86Noah FantCIN · TE−17 pts17% → 0%5Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR−14 pts37% → 23%1Jameson WilliamsDET · WR−13 pts18% → 4%86Zach ErtzWAS · TE−13 pts18% → 4%85Brenton StrangeJAX · TE−13 pts17% → 4%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
6Baker MayfieldTB · QB+24.0 EPA+2.0 → +26.07C.J. StroudHOU · QB+19.4 EPA-1.1 → +18.214Sam DarnoldSEA · QB+17.7 EPA+5.7 → +23.45Jayden DanielsWAS · QB+17.4 EPA-3.4 → +14.02Emeka EgbukaTB · WR+13.9 EPA+3.1 → +17.1
▼ Fallers
9JuJu Smith-SchusterKC · WR−14.0 EPA+2.3 → -11.76Jaxson DartNYG · QB−11.1 EPA-1.5 → -12.644Cam SkatteboNYG · RB−11.0 EPA-0.9 → -11.922Derrick HenryBAL · RB−9.8 EPA-1.1 → -10.97Geno SmithLV · QB−9.5 EPA-1.4 → -10.9
New faces22Michael CarterARI · RB · first start-level week, 57% of the snaps15Cooper RushBAL · QB · first start-level week, 100% of the snaps15Jimmy Horn Jr.CAR · WR · debut, 27% of the snaps8Dillon GabrielCLE · QB · first start-level week, 100% of the snaps16Ashton DulinIND · WR · first start-level week, 71% of the snaps86Albert OkwuegbunamLV · TE · debut, 46% of the snaps18Jack BechLV · WR · first start-level week, 53% of the snaps83Darren WallerMIA · TE · first start-level week, 58% of the snaps87Foster MoreauNO · TE · debut, 35% of the snaps2Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB · debut, 25% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.