2025
Week 5 · Sunday 9:30 AM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 21–17 from as low as 17% (Q4 3:38, down 17–14). The game turned for good at Q4 1:35: C.Wentz pass deep right to J.Jefferson to CLE 27 for 21 yards (D.Ward) (39% → 57%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:35MINC.Wentz pass deep right to J.Jefferson to CLE 27 for 21 yards (D.Ward).turning point39% → 57%
- 2Q4 14:05MINZ.Scott right guard to CLE 45 for -3 yards (I.McGuire, S.Harris). FUMBLES (I.McGuire), RECOVERED by CLE-M.Diabate at CLE 45. PENALTY on…46% → 63%
- 3Q4 11:47MINC.Wentz pass deep middle to J.Jefferson to CLE 37 for 38 yards (R.Hickman).38% → 55%
- 4Q4 9:46MINW.Reichard 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right55% → 72%
- 5Q4 0:30MINC.Wentz pass short right to J.Addison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.76% → 93%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Jefferson led the Vikings at +8.6 EPA (7 catches for 123). D.Njoku led the Browns at +5.1 EPA (6 catches for 67).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Wentz98% | 25/34 | 236 | 1 | 3 | +8.7 | |
| C.Akers2% | 1/1 | 32 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason66% | 13 | 57% | 52 | 1 | -5.7 |
| Z.Scott22% | 5 | 22% | 18 | -3.6 | |
| C.Wentz98% | 3 | 13% | 13 | -1.6 | |
| J.Nailor65% | 1 | 4% | 15 | +1.1 | |
| M.Brosmer2% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson100% | 11 | 32% | 7 | 123 | +8.6 | |
| T.Hockenson85% | 6 | 18% | 6 | 38 | +2.1 | |
| J.Addison75% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 41 | 1 | +4.1 |
| J.Nailor65% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 27 | +1.7 | |
| J.Mason66% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 4 | -2.3 | |
| J.Oliver45% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 35 | 1 | +2.6 |
Defense I.Jr. 1 sack, T.Ingram-Dawkins 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 0/1 FG
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Gabriel100% | 19/33 | 190 | 2 | 2 | -2.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins56% | 23 | 72% | 110 | +1.2 | |
| J.Ford37% | 5 | 16% | 18 | +1.6 | |
| D.Gabriel100% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -1.2 | |
| M.Corley17% | 1 | 3% | 11 | +0.7 | |
| D.Sampson10% | 1 | 3% | -4 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Njoku96% | 9 | 28% | 6 | 67 | 1 | +5.1 |
| I.Bond57% | 7 | 22% | 2 | 29 | -4.2 | |
| J.Jeudy90% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 15 | -2.8 | |
| H.Jr.79% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 13 | 1 | +1.1 |
| J.Ford37% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 20 | +1.0 | |
| D.Sampson10% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | -0.6 | |
| Q.Judkins56% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 18 | +1.3 | |
| J.Thrash40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 22 | -0.4 |
Defense M.Collins 2 sacks, A.Wright 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 1/1 FG (long 31)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Vikings score a touchdown on 60% of red zone trips (13th). Browns allow 63% (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Vikings take a sack on 11% of dropbacks (31st). Browns get home on 10% (3rd). League average is 7%.
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Vikings create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (13th). Browns give them up at 9% (13th).
The Vikings lead the series 4–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | MIN 21 at CLE 17 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | CLE 14 at MIN 7 |
| 2017 · Wk 8 | MIN 33 at CLE 16 |
| 2013 · Wk 3 | CLE 31 at MIN 27 |
| 2009 · Wk 1 | MIN 34 at CLE 20 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 5–12 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 4–4 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLLWW |
| Streak | Won 5 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 16.4 – 22.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.