2025
Week 5 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Commanders offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 18 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Commanders won 27–10 from as low as 14% (Q2 9:37, down 10–0). The Chargers had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 13:42: J.Daniels pass short left to J.Croskey-Merritt ran ob at LAC 27 for 28 yards (T.Dye). Penalty on LAC-T.Still, Defensive Holding, declined (50% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:50, 15 points for the Commanders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:50WAST.Way punts 55 yards to LAC 43 L.McConkey for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-M.Wax, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards,…21% → 36%
- 2Q4 15:00LACJ.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to LAC 41 for -5 yards (T.Tart). FUMBLES (T.Tart), RECOVERED by LAC-T.Tart at LAC 43.10% → 23%
- 3Q2 1:45LACJ.Scott punts 54 yards to WAS 7, downed by LAC-B.St-Juste.58% → 70%
- 4Q4 8:27WASK.Vidal left tackle to WAS 4 for -3 yards (J.Magee).73% → 82%
- 5Q2 0:05LACM.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD50% → 58%
- ★Q3 13:42WASJ.Daniels pass short left to J.Croskey-Merritt ran ob at LAC 27 for 28 yards (T.Dye). Penalty on LAC-T.Still, Defensive Holding, declined.turning point50% → 57%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Daniels led the Commanders at +15.3 EPA (15 of 26 for 231). L.McConkey led the Chargers at +1.2 EPA (5 catches for 39).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 15/26 | 231 | 1 | 1 | +14.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt47% | 14 | 50% | 111 | 2 | +2.0 |
| J.Daniels100% | 8 | 29% | 39 | +1.3 | |
| C.Jr.25% | 5 | 18% | 7 | -3.4 | |
| J.McNichols25% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sr.78% | 11 | 48% | 8 | 96 | 1 | +7.8 |
| J.McNichols25% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 12 | +0.4 | |
| L.McCaffrey39% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 50 | +1.3 | |
| J.Lane34% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 16 | +2.0 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt47% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 39 | +2.8 | |
| Z.Ertz53% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| C.Moore59% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| J.Bates51% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +1.1 | |
| T.Martin | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense D.Armstrong 2 sacks, V.Miller 1.5 sacks, M.Sainristil 1 INT, J.Newton 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 2/2 FG (long 36)
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert91% | 22/29 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6.1 |
| T.Lance9% | 3/4 | 44 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton58% | 12 | 44% | 44 | +0.3 | |
| H.Haskins21% | 5 | 19% | 13 | -1.6 | |
| J.Herbert91% | 4 | 15% | 60 | +4.8 | |
| K.Vidal21% | 4 | 15% | 18 | -0.4 | |
| T.Lance9% | 1 | 4% | 11 | +0.6 | |
| Q.Johnston82% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Allen58% | 9 | 28% | 5 | 58 | +0.4 | |
| L.McConkey79% | 7 | 22% | 5 | 39 | 1 | +1.2 |
| O.Hampton58% | 6 | 19% | 6 | 26 | -0.8 | |
| Q.Johnston82% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 40 | -1.9 | |
| T.Conklin30% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 30 | -4.0 | |
| H.Haskins21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.6 | |
| K.Vidal21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.6 | |
| O.II54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +0.7 |
Defense J.Eboigbe 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 1/1 FG (long 55)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Commanders average 4.5 yards per carry (9th). Chargers allow 4.1 (14th).
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.49 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Chargers give up 5.7 targets a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 7.3. Commanders' tight ends produce 6.1 (22nd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Commanders gain 5.6 yards per play (12th). Chargers give up 5.2 (12th), with the league at 5.4.
The Chargers lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | WAS 27 at LAC 10 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 | LAC 20 at WAS 16 |
| 2017 · Wk 14 | WAS 13 at LAC 30 |
| 2013 · Wk 9 · OT | LAC 24 at WAS 30 |
| 2009 · Wk 17 | WAS 20 at LAC 23 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 11–6 |
| Division | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–6 | 6–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | WWWLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 21.6 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | -0.08#7 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 41%#6 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.2#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 9%#17 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | -0.09#10 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 9%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.12#3 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 4.1#14 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 35%#3 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 44%#1 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 127#8 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 43#6 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 5.7#2 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 29#15 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.