DOWN X DOWN › week 5 › Commanders at Chargers

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2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 5 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium

Chargers offensevsCommanders defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 17 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

WAS offense LAC offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · WAS 27 · LAC 10

The Commanders won 27–10 from as low as 14% (Q2 9:37, down 10⁠–⁠0). The Chargers had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 13:42: J.Daniels pass short left to J.Croskey-Merritt ran ob at LAC 27 for 28 yards (T.Dye). Penalty on LAC-T.Still, Defensive Holding, declined (50% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:50, 15 points for the Commanders.

At kickoffLAC 57%LAC by 2.5 on the line

WAS low point14%Q2 9:37 · down 10⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%3times the favorite changed

Biggest swing15 ptsWAS · Q2 0:50

LAC wins50%WAS wins

12345Turning pointWAS low 14%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 0:50WAST.Way punts 55 yards to LAC 43 L.McConkey for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-M.Wax, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards,…21% → 36%+15
2Q4 15:00LACJ.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to LAC 41 for -5 yards (T.Tart). FUMBLES (T.Tart), RECOVERED by LAC-T.Tart at LAC 43.10% → 23%+13
3Q2 1:45LACJ.Scott punts 54 yards to WAS 7, downed by LAC-B.St-Juste.58% → 70%+12
4Q4 8:27WASK.Vidal left tackle to WAS 4 for -3 yards (J.Magee).73% → 82%+9
5Q2 0:05LACM.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD50% → 58%+8
★Q3 13:42WASJ.Daniels pass short left to J.Croskey-Merritt ran ob at LAC 27 for 28 yards (T.Dye). Penalty on LAC-T.Still, Defensive Holding, declined.turning point50% → 57%+8

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 5

J.Daniels led the Commanders at +15.3 EPA (15 of 26 for 231). L.McConkey led the Chargers at +1.2 EPA (5 catches for 39).

Commanders

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Daniels100%	15/26	231	1		1	+14.0

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Croskey-Merritt47%	14	50%	111	2	+2.0
J.Daniels100%	8	29%	39		+1.3
C.Jr.25%	5	18%	7		-3.4
J.McNichols25%	1	4%	6		+0.1

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
D.Sr.78%	11	48%	8	96	1	+7.8
J.McNichols25%	2	9%	1	12		+0.4
L.McCaffrey39%	2	9%	1	50		+1.3
J.Lane34%	2	9%	1	16		+2.0
J.Croskey-Merritt47%	2	9%	2	39		+2.8
Z.Ertz53%	1	4%	0	0		-0.3
C.Moore59%	1	4%	0	0		-0.8
J.Bates51%	1	4%	1	9		+1.1
T.Martin	1	4%	1	9		+0.8

Defense D.Armstrong 2 sacks, V.Miller 1.5 sacks, M.Sainristil 1 INT, J.Newton 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 2/2 FG (long 36)

Chargers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Herbert91%	22/29	166	1	1	4	-6.1
T.Lance9%	3/4	44			1	-1.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
O.Hampton58%	12	44%	44	+0.3
H.Haskins21%	5	19%	13	-1.6
J.Herbert91%	4	15%	60	+4.8
K.Vidal21%	4	15%	18	-0.4
T.Lance9%	1	4%	11	+0.6
Q.Johnston82%	1	4%	9	+0.7

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
K.Allen58%	9	28%	5	58		+0.4
L.McConkey79%	7	22%	5	39	1	+1.2
O.Hampton58%	6	19%	6	26		-0.8
Q.Johnston82%	4	13%	4	40		-1.9
T.Conklin30%	3	9%	2	30		-4.0
H.Haskins21%	1	3%	1	2		-0.6
K.Vidal21%	1	3%	1	1		-0.6
O.II54%	1	3%	1	14		+0.7

Defense J.Eboigbe 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 1/1 FG (long 55)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Third downs favor Chargers

Chargers convert 45% of third downs (5th). Commanders allow 42% (22nd).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Commanders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.54 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Commanders give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 7.3. Chargers' tight ends produce 5.8 (26th).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Chargers average -0.04 EPA per play (25th). Commanders allow +0.14 (30th). League average is +0.01.

The series · Commanders and Chargers since 1999, and this season's records7 meetings

The Chargers lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.

Commanders at home1–2the Commanders' record

In Los Angeles1–3the Commanders' record

Most pointsCommanders 30 · Chargers 302013 · 2001

Biggest winCommanders by 17 · Chargers by 272025 · 2001

The last 5

2025 · Wk 5	WAS 27 at LAC 10
2021 · Wk 1	LAC 20 at WAS 16
2017 · Wk 14	WAS 13 at LAC 30
2013 · Wk 9 · OT	LAC 24 at WAS 30
2009 · Wk 17	WAS 20 at LAC 23

2025 records

	Commanders	Chargers
Overall	5–12	11–6
Division	3–3	5–1
Conference	3–9	8–4
Other conference	2–3	3–2
Home	2–6	6–3
Away	3–6	5–3
Last 5	LWLLW	WWWLL
Streak	Won 1	Lost 2
Points a game	20.9 – 26.5	21.6 – 20.0

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · LAC offense against WAS defense

Stat	LAC off	WAS def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.04#25	+0.14#30	+0.01
Success rate	43%#22	48%#27	44%
Yards per play	5.2#22	6.1#30	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#21	11%#26	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.07#26	+0.20#30	+0.01
Sack rate	10%#28	7%#12	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.08#23	+0.03#28	-0.05
Yards per carry	3.9#25	4.7#28	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	45%#5	42%#22	40%
Red zone TD rate	47%#29	67%#30	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	155#10	163#27	140
TE yards per game	51#18	61#26	53
TE targets per game	5.8#26	6.7#10	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	23#27	33#21	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Chargers: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.527% of throws

-0.332% of throws

+0.337% of throws

Short

+0.1527% of throws

+0.0820% of throws

-0.0337% of throws

Commanders: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.2443 throws

+1.5415 throws

+0.7941 throws