2025
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
vs
Broncos offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Broncos, 18 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 21–17 from as low as 3% (Q3 3:43, down 17–3). The Eagles had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 6:08: J.Hurts pass short left to D.Smith to PHI 49 for 2 yards (N.Bonitto) (48% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:04, 25 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:04PHIJ.Hurts pass incomplete deep right (D.Key, P.Surtain).75% → 100%
- 2Q4 3:28DENB.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton to PHI 37 for 16 yards (Q.Mitchell).61% → 75%
- 3Q2 8:12PHIJ.Hurts pass deep right to D.Smith to DEN 26 for 52 yards (R.Moss).57% → 72%
- 4Q4 8:17DENB.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton to PHI 11 for 34 yards (Z.Baun).15% → 29%
- 5Q4 0:15PHIJ.Hurts pass deep right to J.Dotson ran ob at DEN 29 for 24 yards (P.Surtain).12% → 25%
- ★Q4 6:08PHIJ.Hurts pass short left to D.Smith to PHI 49 for 2 yards (N.Bonitto).turning point48% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Sutton led the Broncos at +7.8 EPA (8 catches for 99). D.Smith led the Eagles at +6.4 EPA (8 catches for 114).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 24/39 | 242 | 1 | 2 | +4.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins53% | 20 | 69% | 79 | 1 | -1.7 |
| R.Harvey20% | 4 | 14% | 12 | -0.7 | |
| B.Nix100% | 3 | 10% | 22 | +2.5 | |
| A.Prentice5% | 1 | 3% | 8 | +0.1 | |
| M.Jr.36% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton95% | 10 | 28% | 8 | 99 | +7.8 | |
| E.Engram41% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 33 | 1 | +1.0 |
| M.Jr.36% | 5 | 14% | 2 | 10 | -3.5 | |
| T.Franklin59% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 35 | +1.2 | |
| R.Harvey20% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 18 | +3.4 | |
| T.Sherfield22% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 15 | +0.1 | |
| T.Badie26% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 16 | +0.5 | |
| J.Dobbins53% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 | |
| A.Trautman42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.7 | |
| N.Adkins36% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense N.Bonitto 2.5 sacks, A.Singleton 1 sack, J.McMillian 1 sack, E.Uwazurike 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG (long 55)
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 23/38 | 280 | 2 | 6 | +0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley72% | 6 | 55% | 30 | -0.1 | |
| A.Dillon15% | 2 | 18% | 12 | +0.4 | |
| J.Hurts100% | 2 | 18% | 3 | 0.0 | |
| W.Shipley13% | 1 | 9% | 0 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Smith98% | 10 | 27% | 8 | 114 | +6.4 | |
| D.Goedert79% | 9 | 24% | 3 | 19 | 1 | -1.5 |
| A.Brown93% | 8 | 22% | 5 | 43 | +0.5 | |
| S.Barkley72% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 58 | 1 | +3.9 |
| J.Dotson72% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 24 | -0.1 | |
| G.Calcaterra11% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 18 | +0.8 | |
| W.Shipley13% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 4 | -1.0 |
Defense Z.Smith 1 sack, Z.Baun 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 1/1 FG (long 31)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Eagles give up 41 yards a game to running backs (28th), against a league average of 32. Broncos' running backs produce 36 (8th).
Deep middle is open
Eagles are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Eagles give up 29 yards a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 53. Broncos' tight ends produce 39 (28th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Broncos create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (20th). Eagles give them up at 9% (18th).
The series is even at 3–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | DEN 21 at PHI 17 |
| 2021 · Wk 10 | PHI 30 at DEN 13 |
| 2017 · Wk 9 | DEN 23 at PHI 51 |
| 2013 · Wk 4 | PHI 20 at DEN 52 |
| 2009 · Wk 16 | DEN 27 at PHI 30 |
2025 records
| Broncos | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 11–6 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 8–1 | 5–3 |
| Away | 6–2 | 6–3 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | LWWWL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 18.3 | 22.3 – 19.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#14 | -0.07#9 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#17 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#17 | 5.1#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#20 | 9%#18 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#12 | -0.11#8 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#1 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#19 | -0.10#6 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#18 | 4.1#12 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#11 | 43%#23 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#16 | 55%#9 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 153#12 | 138#17 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 39#28 | 29#2 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#18 | 6.2#6 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#8 | 41#28 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.