2025
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Cowboys offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 17 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cowboys won 37–22; their low point was 33% at Q1 8:32. The Jets had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 2:58: A.McNamara punts 33 yards to DAL 10, fair catch by J.Moreno-Cropper (47% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 2:27, 15 points for the Cowboys.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 2:27DALB.Hall left guard to DAL 13 for 10 yards (M.Liufau). FUMBLES (M.Liufau), RECOVERED by DAL-S.Williams at DAL 9. NYJ-B.Hall was injured during the play.56% → 71%
- 2Q1 6:34DALD.Prescott pass deep right to R.Flournoy to NYJ 20 for 40 yards (A.Cisco) [W.McDonald].44% → 57%
- 3Q2 11:48DALD.Prescott pass short right to J.Ferguson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.60% → 70%
- 4Q2 14:20DALD.Prescott pass short left to H.Luepke to NYJ 37 for 10 yards (J.Sherwood).51% → 58%
- 5Q2 1:20DALD.Prescott pass deep right to R.Flournoy to NYJ 16 for 46 yards (T.Adams). Penalty on NYJ-W.McDonald, Defensive Offside, declined.78% → 85%
- ★Q1 2:58DALA.McNamara punts 33 yards to DAL 10, fair catch by J.Moreno-Cropper.turning point47% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +12.6 EPA (18 of 29 for 237). G.Wilson led the Jets at +4.6 EPA (6 catches for 71).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 18/29 | 237 | 4 | 1 | +11.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams77% | 16 | 55% | 135 | 1 | +7.4 |
| D.Prescott100% | 7 | 24% | 28 | +0.8 | |
| J.Blue18% | 4 | 14% | 7 | -1.3 | |
| R.Flournoy57% | 2 | 7% | 10 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Ferguson55% | 9 | 32% | 7 | 49 | 2 | +2.4 |
| R.Flournoy57% | 9 | 32% | 6 | 114 | +5.5 | |
| G.Pickens78% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 57 | 1 | +4.5 |
| J.Williams77% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 4 | 1 | -0.1 |
| L.Schoonmaker55% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -0.7 | |
| J.Tolbert77% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| H.Luepke33% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +2.1 |
Defense J.Houston 1.5 sacks, D.Jr. 1 sack, O.Odighizuwa 1 sack, S.Williams 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 1/1 FG (long 35)
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fields100% | 32/46 | 283 | 2 | 5 | +3.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall62% | 14 | 64% | 113 | -2.2 | |
| J.Fields100% | 7 | 32% | 26 | -1.1 | |
| I.Davis40% | 1 | 5% | 5 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Taylor84% | 12 | 27% | 9 | 67 | +3.9 | |
| G.Wilson94% | 10 | 23% | 6 | 71 | 1 | +4.6 |
| B.Hall62% | 5 | 11% | 4 | 42 | +4.4 | |
| J.Reynolds74% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 29 | +3.1 | |
| J.Ruckert34% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 28 | +0.9 | |
| I.Davis40% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 28 | +0.2 | |
| A.Lazard | 2 | 5% | 1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| A.Beck12% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2.9 |
| A.Smith56% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 14 | +1.0 |
Defense B.McGregor 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Cowboys gain +0.16 EPA per dropback (6th). Jets allow +0.25 (32nd).
Deep right is open
Jets are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.80 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Jets give up 35 yards a game to running backs (22nd), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Cowboys create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (17th). Jets give them up at 12% (28th).
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999. The Cowboys have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | DAL 37 at NYJ 22 |
| 2023 · Wk 2 | NYJ 10 at DAL 30 |
| 2019 · Wk 6 | DAL 22 at NYJ 24 |
| 2015 · Wk 15 | NYJ 19 at DAL 16 |
| 2011 · Wk 1 | DAL 24 at NYJ 27 |
2025 records
| Cowboys | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–9–1 | 3–14 |
| Division | 4–2 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 4–7–1 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 4–3–1 | 2–7 |
| Away | 3–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 5 |
| Points a game | 27.7 – 30.1 | 17.6 – 29.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.10#4 | +0.15#31 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#5 | 46%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#2 | 5.8#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 12%#28 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.16#6 | +0.25#32 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#6 | 5%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#8 | -0.02#21 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#6 | 4.4#20 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#8 | 39%#12 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 68%#32 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 212#1 | 136#14 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#20 | 54#18 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.1#10 | 7.2#16 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 18#32 | 35#22 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.