2025
Week 5 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Lions offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Lions, 17 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 37–24 and were favored the whole way, never below 81%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 14:49, 6 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:49DETJ.Browning pass deep left intended for J.Chase INTERCEPTED by A.Robertson at CIN 19. A.Robertson to CIN 17 for 2 yards (J.Chase).89% → 95%
- 2Q3 14:17DETJ.Browning pass short right intended for M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at CIN 42. A.Anzalone pushed ob at CIN 28 for 14 yards (J.Chase).93% → 98%
- 3Q1 4:56CINJ.Goff sacked at CIN 39 for -7 yards (T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (T.Hendrickson) [T.Hendrickson], touched at CIN 26, RECOVERED by CIN-L.Wilson at CIN…6% → 10%
- 4Q1 14:16DETJ.Goff pass short right to J.Gibbs to CIN 44 for 13 yards (J.Ossai; J.Battle) [T.Slaton].81% → 85%
- 5Q1 10:57DETJ.Goff pass short left to S.LaPorta for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.86% → 89%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.LaPorta led the Lions at +7.6 EPA (5 catches for 92). A.Iosivas led the Bengals at +4.9 EPA (5 catches for 82).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 19/23 | 258 | 3 | 4 | +11.6 | |
| D.Montgomery53% | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Montgomery53% | 18 | 55% | 65 | 1 | +0.5 |
| J.Gibbs52% | 12 | 36% | 54 | +0.3 | |
| J.Goff100% | 2 | 6% | -2 | -4.2 | |
| J.Williams82% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown81% | 9 | 39% | 8 | 100 | +6.7 | |
| S.LaPorta94% | 6 | 26% | 5 | 92 | 1 | +7.6 |
| B.Wright73% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 9 | 1 | +0.9 |
| J.Gibbs52% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 33 | 1 | +4.8 |
| D.Montgomery53% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | +1.1 | |
| J.Williams82% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.6 | |
| I.TeSlaa34% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 12 | 1 | +2.5 |
Defense A.Anzalone 1 INT, A.Robertson 1 INT, K.Joseph 1 INT, D.Barnes 1 sack
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Browning100% | 26/40 | 251 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -8.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown53% | 8 | 50% | 27 | -2.1 | |
| S.Perine47% | 4 | 25% | 27 | +0.4 | |
| J.Browning100% | 4 | 25% | 31 | +3.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase92% | 10 | 25% | 6 | 110 | 2 | +4.0 |
| C.Brown53% | 8 | 20% | 7 | 21 | -4.6 | |
| T.Higgins97% | 7 | 18% | 3 | 22 | 1 | -0.8 |
| A.Iosivas87% | 7 | 18% | 5 | 82 | +4.9 | |
| M.Gesicki50% | 5 | 13% | 2 | 15 | -7.7 | |
| S.Perine47% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 2 | -0.5 | |
| D.Sample44% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1 | -0.8 |
Defense T.Hendrickson 2 sacks, J.Ossai 1 sack, M.Murphy 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 50)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Lions average 4.7 yards per carry (5th). Bengals allow 5.2 (31st).
Deep left is open
Bengals are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.70 EPA per attempt. Lions send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bengals give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 140. Lions' wide receivers produce 181 (3rd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Lions succeed on 45% of plays (12th) against a defense that allows 48% (28th).
The Bengals lead the series 6–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | DET 37 at CIN 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 6 | CIN 34 at DET 11 |
| 2017 · Wk 16 | DET 17 at CIN 26 |
| 2013 · Wk 7 | CIN 27 at DET 24 |
| 2009 · Wk 13 | DET 13 at CIN 23 |
2025 records
| Lions | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 6–11 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | WLLLW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 24.3 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#6 | +0.13#29 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#12 | 48%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#8 | 12%#30 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#4 | +0.16#28 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#16 | +0.06#31 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 5.2#31 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 44%#26 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#8 | 65%#25 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#3 | 116#3 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#26 | 85#32 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.4#31 | 9.7#32 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#4 | 43#29 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.