DOWN X DOWN › week 5 › Dolphins at Panthers
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Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium

MIAvsCAR

Dolphins offensevsPanthers defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

MIA offenseCAR offense
How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · MIA 24 · CAR 27

The Panthers won 27–24 from as low as 8% (Q2 6:57, down 17⁠–⁠0). The Dolphins had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:48: T.Etienne left tackle to MIA 4 for 12 yards (R.Douglas, K.Britt) (44% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:50, 32 points for the Dolphins.

At kickoffMIA 57%MIA by 1.5 on the line
CAR low point8%Q2 6:57 · down 17⁠–⁠0
Swings past 50%3times the favorite changed
Biggest swing32 ptsMIA · Q4 4:50
CAR wins50%MIA wins
Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 4:50MIAT.Tagovailoa pass deep left to J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.45% → 76%+32 MIA
  2. 2Q4 3:31CARB.Young pass short right to Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (R.Douglas).24% → 44%+20 CAR
  3. 3Q4 1:46MIAT.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 15 for -7 yards (P.Jones).72% → 87%+16 CAR
  4. 4Q4 9:09CARR.Dowdle right guard to MIA 32 for 43 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).26% → 41%+14 CAR
  5. 5Q3 14:53CARR.Dowdle right end to MIA 17 for 53 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).22% → 35%+14 CAR
  6. ★Q4 2:48CART.Etienne left tackle to MIA 4 for 12 yards (R.Douglas, K.Britt).turning point44% → 53%+9 CAR

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 5

T.Tagovailoa led the Dolphins at +10.8 EPA (27 of 36 for 256). R.Dowdle led the Panthers at +10.4 EPA (23 carries for 206).

MIA Dolphins

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
T.Tagovailoa100%27/3625633+11.5
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
D.Achane87%1071%16-3.3
O.II25%321%-2-2.4
T.Tagovailoa100%17%5-0.7
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
J.Waddle89%926%61101+10.4
D.Achane87%721%6301+0.8
D.Waller58%515%5781+10.4
J.Hill53%515%422-0.8
M.Washington58%515%40-4.1
T.Conner20%26%216+0.3
A.Ingold29%13%00-0.5

Defense M.Fitzpatrick 1 INT, B.Chubb 1 sack, J.Phillips 1 sack, J.Brooks 0.5 sacks · Kicking R.Patterson 1/1 FG (long 43)

CAR Panthers

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
B.Young100%19/30198213-1.3
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
R.Dowdle67%2372%2061+9.4
T.Etienne20%413%22+0.7
B.Young100%39%1+0.4
J.Jr.27%26%10+0.4
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
T.McMillan90%830%673+6.5
R.Dowdle67%415%328+1.0
H.Renfrow43%311%17-3.7
X.Legette79%311%2311+0.5
J.Jr.27%311%221+3.2
T.Tremble76%27%17-0.3
J.Mitchell19%14%111+0.9
B.Tremayne24%14%19+0.9
M.Evans37%14%141+1.2
T.Etienne20%14%17+0.1

Defense A.Robinson 1 sack, D.Brown 1 sack, P.II 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 2/2 FG (long 49)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Run it at them

Dolphins' run game is 9th in EPA per carry (-0.03). Panthers allow +0.01 (27th).

02
Opportunity

Deep left is open

Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Panthers give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (11th), against a league average of 7.3. Dolphins' tight ends produce 6.0 (25th).

04
Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Dolphins create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (9th). Panthers give them up at 9% (10th).

The series · Dolphins and Panthers since 1999, and this season's records8 meetings

The Dolphins lead the series 5–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.

Dolphins at home4–1the Dolphins' record
In Carolina1–2the Dolphins' record
Most pointsDolphins 42 · Panthers 452023 · 2017
Biggest winDolphins by 23 · Panthers by 242021 · 2017

The last 5

2025 · Wk 5MIA 24 at CAR 27
2023 · Wk 6CAR 21 at MIA 42
2021 · Wk 12CAR 10 at MIA 33
2017 · Wk 10MIA 21 at CAR 45
2013 · Wk 12CAR 20 at MIA 16

2025 records

DolphinsPanthers
Overall7–108–9
Division3–33–3
Conference3–96–6
Other conference4–12–3
Home5–45–3
Away2–63–6
Last 5WLLWLWLWLL
StreakLost 1Lost 2
Points a game20.4 – 24.918.3 – 22.4

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · MIA offense against CAR defense
StatMIA MIA offFavors MIA · Favors CARCAR CAR def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
-0.02#21
+0.07#23+0.01
Success rate
42%#26
45%#1944%
Yards per play
5.5#14
5.6#205.4
Explosive play rate
10%#9
9%#1010%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
-0.01#18
+0.11#24+0.01
Sack rate
7%#19
5%#277%
Running
Run EPA per carry
-0.03#9
+0.01#27-0.05
Yards per carry
4.8#3
4.4#214.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion
35%#26
47%#3040%
Red zone TD rate
56%#23
57%#1459%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
110#26
130#13140
TE yards per game
50#19
61#2553
TE targets per game
6.0#25
6.7#117.3
RB receiving yards per game
36#9
29#1332
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Dolphins: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.148% of throws
+0.182% of throws
+0.076% of throws
Short
+0.1335% of throws
+0.2216% of throws
+0.0633% of throws

Panthers: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.5744 throws
-0.1029 throws
+0.3033 throws
Short
+0.08180 throws
+0.42107 throws
+0.17154 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.